New Feature: Daily Projections for FanDuel (and others soon)

ken_admin  3/31/2013 8:55 AM

If you're a FanDuel user or would like to become one, we now have Daily Projections customized to their settings.  Here are the steps to get started:

1. If you're not yet a FanDuel user, feel free to take advantage of their Baseball Monster member offer.

2. To use FanDuel under Daily Projections, create a new league under League Settings.

3. Click the FanDuel button at the top to automatically fill the settings to match FanDuel.

4. Under Daily Projections, use the tools to build your roster based on their prices and your budget.

We will be adding support for DraftStreet and DraftDay shortly along with others sites as we get their information.

This page functions similarly to the Basketball Daily Projections, and we plan on making changes to make this a customized fit for baseball. If you have any issues or suggestions, please post those here.

Thanks

bcavers  3/31/2013 12:46 PM

- Seems like when ease is applied it changes the projections for hitters but not pitchers right now?

- the "game" column for relief pitchers I can intrepret as the precent chance of that reliever pitching in the game?

bcavers  3/31/2013 1:11 PM

Also would it be possible to be able to export to CSV both hitters and pitchers all in one sheet like you can for the yearly projections?

ken_admin  3/31/2013 2:03 PM

Currently, the only ease we're applying is the strength of the opposing pitcher so it only affects hitters. For relievers, we store a percent of games for each reliever which is how we calculate the number of games.

We'll look into a single CSV export too.

liam4  3/31/2013 7:28 PM

Thanks, this is an awesome feature.  I'm struggling with the pitcher projections, not getting any values.  Hitter projections are perfect.  Any ideas on what I could be doing wrong? 

Used Fanduel settings.  When I run it for daily projections, I get six random pitchers (and a catcher) but no values.  Annual projections return nothing for pitchers.

One note on automatic fanduel settings; does it need to add -0.25 for outs?

ajpy26  3/31/2013 7:47 PM

No pitcher projections for daily projections?

ken_admin  3/31/2013 7:48 PM

Yes, gone for a little bit, but they are back now.

KSwiss  3/31/2013 7:53 PM

Thanks for the new feature!

What are the basis of these projections, so that we know where they are coming from?  For example, Gyorko and Bradley Jr. are showing 0's across the board for the weekly projections, when we know both are playing.  Also, when "ease" is not checked off, is it just using the players yearly projection pro-rated to the number of games for the week?  Does this mean we should always have ease checked off for it to be useful?

bcavers  3/31/2013 8:08 PM

Yes, a detailed post would be much appreciated

ken_admin  3/31/2013 8:58 PM

Yes, without Ease being applied, we use the default stats for the hitter.  I would suggest applying ease since that'll take the opposing pitching into account..  It may be not having Ease checked is never desired, and we may remove the checkbox.

For Gyorko and Bradley, we had them marked inactive based on this morning's rosters.  They are now officially on their teams active rosters, and they have been updated.

mymaus  3/31/2013 10:19 PM

Wow -- I think. A few questions...

I am using BM for a H2H each category league which allows for daily changes. So what these questions pertain to is your Daily Head to Head tool. This tool could be huge if it is what I hope it is. Here are the questions:

1) You talk about using this for Fan Duel. I'm sure that's a lot of fun, but are the daily projections you are using for Fan Duel – also being used by used by your Daily Head to Head. If not, why not?

2) Assuming they are be used for your Daily Head to Head, you are a little vague when talking about ease. You say that you only apply ease to hitter values. I would think you could reverse the logic and apply the ease to hitter too. For example, Verlander goes against the Twins tomorrow, his stats should be much better than going against the Angels. You are somehow penalizing the Twins hitters for facing him, you should reward him at the same pace you are penalizing the Twins hitters. Say he averages 7 innings/game over the year. Against a weaker team he will go longer – say 8 innings. Why couldn’t you give him 8/9ths of the stats of all the Twins hitters going against him and use that as his pitcher projection?

3) I have never tried to project any baseball stats, but, I would think the three most important factors that should be used when trying to do daily projections are quality of pitcher, park factor and L/R splits. Do you consider all of these when doing your daily projections? If not, what do you consider?  In next year’s version you could get really fancy and connect with some pitch f/x data those shows pitcher effectiveness of certain pitches and hitter effectiveness against certain pitches and use that as a factor too!

4) I desperately need positions listed on Daily Head to Head page to help me pick the lineup for me and my opposing team. There is a column labeled POS but nothing shows up there. I like how the default daily lineup is based on active players. Could you improve this one step by assuming, as a default that when there are not 13 hitters (or whatever total # of hitters your league settings say) scheduled to play a particular day, the non active players are automatically checked as active? Even better – make the default be the highest valued player for that day at each position (starting with most scarce) and, instead of a check mark saying that a player is playing that day, list what position BM is recommending that player play and allow me to change it.  

6) Need an option on the Daily Head to Head to show available players that I can put a check mark by and see if the results help my team win. I think this would be an easy and powerful feature to add. While you're at it add a % difference in totals of each category when comparing one team to another. Raw results don't mean as much. I want to make changes in my lineup to effect the categories are the closest % wise

7) Is there a way to upload my own daily projection in? If not, how hard would that be to do?

I don’t ask for much do I?

The more of this you put in the better your product will be – users express your thoughts on these ideas or at least votes below.  Last time I checked there was only 24 hours in a day and it looks like Ken is already working 23.5 of them. He needs to know what to work on first.

ken_admin  4/1/2013 7:29 AM

Thanks for the detailed suggestions, and here are some comments:

- The projections used by FanDuel are the same we use for Weekly projections.  Both take into account the projected lineups (and actual once we receive them), and both use the ease of the opposing pitchers.

- Though the ease is currently applied to hitters only, you are right that they could just as well be applied to pitchers.  Typically, we don't apply ease until weeks into the season because we rely on the players' current year performance.  However, since we're projecting hitting and pitcher, we might as well apply that to ease also.  Over the next few days, we'll work on applying ease to pitchers also.

- For factors, we're currently using the pitcher strength, but yes, we do want to consider more factors as you mentioned (L/R and park definitely).  We do have separate projected lineups for L/R which does currently affect the projections based on probable pitching.

- I have added the positions to the H2H tools.

- For the daily-autochecking, etc., we are going to be enhancing the interface and functionality of the daily page so the suggestions are appreciated.

- Custom Projections are currently supported for Remaining Projections, and we will be allowing the same for daily/weekly shortly.

Thanks again for the ideas.

Ken

mymaus  4/1/2013 11:00 AM

Thanks for responding so quickly. I'm excited about this new feature and the ones to come. Can you keep this thread updated as you add capibilities?

Also, the POS column is there abut the positions are still not showing up. When I click on a player link within the Daily Head to Head page the player info screen says that they are not eligible at any position. Interestingly, when I go back to the projecitons page it does show positions and when I click on a  player from that page it does show his eligibility.

It looks like the  Daily Head to Head page is somehoe linked to a different player info database.

mymaus  4/1/2013 11:15 AM

Wow! that was a quick fix! It looks like the POS are working now. I'm not sure why the Sort by Value (Total Value) isn't working quite right. You can check my Matchup 1 if you want. It shows for the other team that Dunn is more valuable (at the top of the list) than Braun dispite him having the same number of games and Brauns stats being better than Dunn's in every category. Thoughts?

Stacks  4/1/2013 8:00 PM

When will Draft Street projections be added?

Thanks

ken_admin  4/1/2013 8:11 PM

They'll be there tomorrow morning.

Stacks  4/1/2013 11:50 PM

Awesome thank you.  Could you please also add draft kings projections.

ajpy26  4/2/2013 12:12 AM

Great info, the site is great. Any eta for Draftday projections?

ken_admin  4/2/2013 6:32 AM

DraftStreet is now available, and DraftDay will be added next.  We will add others if they are willing to share their pricing information.  I will check with DraftKings.

#28675  4/2/2013 1:59 PM

Sorry if I missed it, but are non-ease numbers taking account L/R splits for the opposing starting pitcher?

ajpy26  4/3/2013 9:00 AM

Any idea when the draftday info will be added?

ken_admin  4/3/2013 10:05 AM

We should be able to get those ready for tomorrow's games.

mymaus  4/3/2013 10:24 PM

How many days in advance are the Daily Projections made?  I am using this for a Daily Head to Head league so I am hoping they might be made for a week in advance.

Also, you said above that you would be aiding ease based rankings capabilities to pitchers "over the next few days". Can you give me an update on when that might be done and can you let us know in this thread, whe it IS done?

In the meantime, are the daily pitcher projections just a prorated version of your yearly projections (i.e. opponent, park etc is not taken into account)?

Lastly, the Position column appears on the Daily Head to Head page, but it still shows no postions. I thought you had it fixed when they majgically appeared on Monday, but now they are no longer there again.

Thanks for all you do!

ken_admin  4/4/2013 7:07 AM

The daily projections are generated off of projected lineups and probable pitchers so they're typically available 1-2 weeks out.  For each day, we receive updated lineups from RotoInfo so they become more accurate at that time.

We are still working on the other enhancements, and I will post here when they're ready.  For now, you are correct, that the pitcher weekly projections are a prorated version of the remaining projections.

The position column is fixed (for good) now :)

Thanks

mymaus  4/4/2013 10:02 AM

Thanks for the quick response (as usual). I'll be checking back with this thread for more updates, so I appreciate you putting them here.

mymaus  4/4/2013 10:43 AM

Minor issue - for some reason the Daily projection page is showing players on other teams as owned but not my own. Could we get a "Show Available Players + My Team" option?

liam4  4/5/2013 8:47 AM

Is it possible to put in an Ease column, like in basketballmonster, so I can see the perceived adjustment without applying it?  Didn't see that option.  Thanks.

Stacks  4/6/2013 9:44 AM

I can't get daily projections for draftstreet or fan duel this morning.  I get this message....

A system error has occurred. The administrator has been alerted. We apoligize for the inconvenience.

any chance this will be fixed before the early baseball games today?

Thanks,

ken_admin  4/6/2013 9:48 AM

They are there now. Sorry about that.

behindtheplate8  4/13/2013 3:20 AM

Is it possible to add full season and past # of games options to the analysis source like it is set up in basketballmonster? I think it is very useful feature for basketballmonster and would be great to have here too.

ken_admin  4/13/2013 8:15 AM

Yes, we can add these.

behindtheplate8  4/13/2013 10:17 PM

thank you Ken, appreciate it.