Gerardo Parra

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avatarCameron1Turner (44 posts)  7/5/2015 2:46 PM

Needs a bump in projections


0% Agree (1 vote)
avatarkslight (2576 posts)  7/5/2015 3:45 PM

He's projected to play about 70% of the season.  Kris Davis is returning this week, and if Parra continues to play every day, we can up his projection.


67% Agree (3 votes)
avatarCameron1Turner (44 posts)  7/6/2015 3:26 PM

I posted this in the DFS section so the % of season he's projected to play is irrelevant.


0% Agree (2 votes)
avatarCameron1Turner (44 posts)  7/6/2015 7:28 PM

And right on cue he hits another HR tonight. Dude is a beast. 18% owned in the Super Knuckleball, but your projections had him as the 27th best value at OF today.

So yeah, might wanna bump his projections. Jonathan Bales and Peter Jennings' site had him as the 4th best OF play tonight


0% Agree (2 votes)
avatarMajorrock (45 posts)  7/7/2015 3:11 PM

This explains a lot to me now. I still use the site daily as it is sort of one stop shopping for finding good matchups but more times than not the best matchups can be found way down the page. Lesson i finally caught on to several weeks ago. 

 

"He's projected to play about 70% of the season.  Kris Davis is returning this week, and if Parra continues to play every day, we can up his projection."

My take on that is that your projections are more for the season long/half season players. Now don't get me wrong, i am not criticizing you or your product. I would guess to say that most of your season long players do very well. From a daily perspective it doesn't matter to me if he is projected to play 1 game, 3 games or 100 games, All i need to know so that he is in the lineup today and tearing the cover off the ball. I think it is tough to have a product for both season and daily fantasy with MLB. It may have worked well for NBA but with the Daily MLB I have learned a lot over my few months playing and now Turing a profit consistently. 
My suggestion to daily folks would be to identify your player pool by matchup and not so much by projected points. After all, the difference between the best player and the worst on the board is only a couple of points. If a player goes off he is going t put up more than he is projected and if he goes 0-4 (which happens a lot) you eat the negative 1 on FD. 
Anyway, just my $0.02 for what it;s worth. 
 

100% Agree (1 vote)
avatarkslight (2576 posts)  7/7/2015 3:18 PM

The original answer was given assuming it was a season-long question (I didn't notice the forum name). Daily projections are based on actual lineups so for a single day, Parra is projected to bat first, and that day's factors are applied.  The site is really separated into two types of projections: long-term and short-term.  The short-term take into account the matchups (teams/hitters/pitchers/park) while the long-term are more general. In other words, the goal is to create as accurate as possible projections on a daily basis and remaining season.  There's always work to do to improve the results so the feedback is appreciated.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarCameron1Turner (44 posts)  7/7/2015 7:40 PM

I think the model just takes too long to recognize players who have improved. It seems to rely heavily on prior stats but not so much recent performance. Which I get because sometimes players are on hot streaks but with Parra and Cesar I think they've actually improved as hitters and it's not just a streak.  


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarjyang61107 (272 posts)  7/7/2015 9:14 PM

Example players would be Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustaka, Joe Panik, Dee Gordon, JD Martinez... Only way to know is by watching their games and their plate approach and see if they fixed their mechanic issues to make them better hitters...My guess is picking up the hot hitter  if you have a slacking hitter near the end of the bench and ride it till the wheels go off. 

 


0% Agree (0 votes)

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