Home field advantage

ehrenberggreg  7/26/2015 2:45 PM

Home field advantage is something I notice doesn't exist in the factors. I'm not even sure exactly what causes the advantage outside of studies that have shown umpires and refs tend to give more calls to home teams, but there is undoubtedly some kind of advantage to playing at home that is included in Vegas odds for all sports and can be proven to exist by the simply seeing that teams have better home records than road records. 

Alert! one player sample size coming 

for example Andrew mccutchen plays in a pitchers park so for all his home games he receives a sizable downgrade to his projection yet here are his career splits

home- .313/.402/.519

road- .284/.370/.476

so I personally automatically see mccutchen at home vs at an average or below average lefty and think of him as an elite player even if park factors are giving him a downgrade. 

Prim not exactly sure the best way to include home field advantage into projections or how to measure it accurately but I do feel it's something significant that's being missed. I'm curious to see if anybody else has an opinion on this

ehrenberggreg  7/27/2015 7:05 PM

Does ken or anybody else have an opinion on this? I would like to see if somebody has an opinion opposite to mine or stats to show there is no home field advantage. 

ken_admin  7/28/2015 8:12 AM

After looking into this, I have added another home/away adjustment which amounts to slightly less BB and more K for home pitchers (reverse for hitters of course). This has been applied to the short-term projections, and thanks for bringing it up.

ehrenberggreg  7/28/2015 8:19 AM

Cool thanks Ken!