Medlen vs Lee today

#28675  4/4/2013 3:53 PM

Today in daily projections, Medlen is good for 0.51 wins, while Lee is good for 0.47 wins. That's 0.98 total. 

I see a flaw here as this implies the starter gets the winning decision 98% of the time.

Some real data:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10514

Looks like the combined win count for each team should be around 65% on average. Obviously with higher innings expected for both, that number will be higher for a matchup like Lee/Medlen. But not 98%.

ken_admin  4/4/2013 4:38 PM

Yes, that is a good point.  Currently, our projections take into account the strength of the pitcher when adjusting hitter stats, but are still working on pitcher adjustments based on the opposing hitters.  In the case of Medlen and Lee, Lee's win numbers would likely be less since he's facing the stronger offense.  We expect to have the proper pitcher adjustments shortly.

Thanks for pointing this out and for the link.