Question: Values and Vegas O/U

atruecubsfan@yahoo.com  5/18/2016 4:53 PM

I noticed that some of the team's projected runs don't add up to the vegas over/unders.  Some by quite a bit, such as COL/STL.  For example, sum of the runs for COL + STL starters add up to 9.05 (4.18 + 4.87) while the over/under is only 8.  Any reason why that is? 

Also, the sums are not consistently higher than the O/U either, for example, sum of runs for NYY/ARI game is 4.33 + 4.29 = 8.62 while the over/under for that game is 9.  

ehrenberggreg  5/18/2016 5:33 PM

Don't forget that the Vegas lines aren't 100% accurate. Just like pricing is off in DFS on players from time to time lines aren't set correctly, which is why there are people who are able to make a living betting on sports games 

ken_admin  5/18/2016 5:34 PM

We don't force our totals to match the odds though we do visually compare the two.  The total runs of all hitters/pitchers will be a little high since we give all bench players some playing time.

ehrenberggreg  5/18/2016 5:37 PM

Also the purpose of the Vegas lines isn't to be an accurate measure of a games expected outcome as much as to entice equal betting from both sides of the line. 

atruecubsfan@yahoo.com  5/18/2016 5:46 PM

Thanks, all fair points.  About kslight's comment about total runs being usually higher than vegas, that doesn't seem to be the case as my example for NYY/ARI shows.  One who relies on vegas info on runs would be stacking NYY tonight for sure, but with bbm projections one can look elsewhere for better options.  

ken_admin  5/18/2016 5:47 PM

It looks like you may be totaling the starters only for NYY (which would make sense)?  Is that the case, or are you viewing non-starters too?

atruecubsfan@yahoo.com  5/18/2016 5:48 PM

o right... yea starters only.  

ehrenberggreg  5/18/2016 5:49 PM

With that said the top of the Yankees lineup does present some value anyway. All three of the outfielders are in a pretty good spot IMO