What has changed?

tsfloyd  5/27/2017 3:30 PM

I have been happily using baseball monster all season, with great success on DK, routinely scoring lineups of around 105 points or more.  All of a sudden in the past week, I can't hit the side of a barn.  Each lineup I put together not only fails to cash, but finishes near last in every contest I enter, scoring below 60 points.  This same thing happened to me last year, around the end of May. Even with smart money-management, I get cleaned out, and have to quit for the season before July.

I read posts about "variance" and the like, but that doesn't seem possible.  Has anyone else noticed this?

I suspect that the pricing gets sharper as the season progresses, but it's gotten so sharp, as to be impossible, and no fun to play.

jtcctj  5/27/2017 6:21 PM

I've only started using Baseball Monster, but I've had a lot of success on Draftkings with it so far, especially the past week. I have been less successful with FanDuel, but I think you hit the nail on the head, MLB variance is huge, all of these multi HR games can create Havoc.

tsfloyd  5/28/2017 8:10 PM

I have a new theory.  Recently, I have gotten sucked in by implied run totals per vegas line.  These become more inaccurate the sharper the line gets, as the season goes on.

jtcctj  5/28/2017 8:16 PM

A fun but frustrating hobby. After saying how well I was doing on DraftKings, I stunk up the joint today, mostly because I decided Joe Ross was going to have another good game, I should have known better. I did win a little on FanDuel, thanks to Joe Mauer's 43 points and low ownership.

tsfloyd  5/28/2017 8:36 PM

Joe Ross seemed like such a great idea today.  He burned me too.  It's very frustrating to spend an hour building lineups, and then in just a few minutes, your entire day is screwed.  On most days, it's nothing more than filling out a bracket.  There's so much luck involved.

But there are a few times where one can find a small edge that turns into winning.

gehrenberg   5/28/2017 9:00 PM

Not sure if you would be interested, but I am doing a daily podcast. I worked with Ken on baseball monster and currently do work for basketball monster as well. I have had a good mlb DFS season thus far and have overall been playing DFS as my main source of income for the last few years. Here is a link to my podcast. I now do it every Monday-Friday for the night slates. I have gotten some good feedback about it helping people win. If you ever have questions about DFS in general or specific slate questions you can ask me and I'll answer on the pod 

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/foul-balls/id1239664646?mt=2

jtcctj  5/28/2017 9:07 PM

I will check out your podcast. As your main source of income, I assume you're a cash player? Or do you hit that many GPPs? I used to do multiple lineups and play GPPs, now I mostly build one that I hope is good.

gehrenberg   5/28/2017 9:36 PM

For baseball I only play GPP. Basketball I play mostly cash but some GPP as well 

tsfloyd  6/5/2017 10:36 PM

Thank you for the tip.  I will give you a listen.

I am learning that game selection and money management are much more important than building lineups.

tsfloyd  6/6/2017 9:24 PM

I listened to a few of the "Foul Balls" podcast.  I like it, but it's too little, too late.  I'm cleaned out.

I did some checking.  Each of the past three years, around Memorial Day, I get cleaned out, and have to quit.  It's amazing how much luck is involved.  This is a fun hobby, but in the end, a huge waste of time.  It's impossible to win, even just half the time.

gehrenberg   6/6/2017 10:46 PM

I wouldn't say impossible because I have been making a living doing it for a few years now. But it certainly takes a lot of skill and bankroll management to make it happen. Thanks for listening though 

tsfloyd  6/13/2017 7:47 PM

I will never believe anyone makes a living playing DFS.

I do believe people make a nice living pretending to make a living and being a tout.

gehrenberg   6/13/2017 8:44 PM

Sorry but I do. I only started getting writing work after playing professionally for a couple years without any other source of income. If you don't believe me that is fine as well, but I will always be avialble as a resource if you want to talk about DFS strategy or just DFS in general 

#49107  6/14/2017 8:10 AM

gehrenberg -- if you're GPP only for MLB, and playing for a living, which GPPs are you playing? I never see you in the $333 or higher on DK, nor in the mid-level $100 or $150. Are you just mass multi-entering low stakes GPPs or playing higher on FanDuel?

Curious as to what's working for you. Thanks!

gehrenberg   6/14/2017 10:44 AM

I play between Fanduel, Yahoo, Draftkings and soemtimes Fantasy Draft. For me, the most profitable strategy is to play lots of entrees in lower stakes becuase the cash lines are lower. So I would prefer to play 111 $3 entries, or 10 $33 entrees over a $333 entry. In general, I always like the econonmic principle of diversifying risk. I think the key to baseball is trying to figure out ownership both for yourself and opponents and of course stacking to maximize upside. I don't build any lineups that aren't stacks because it is the optimal way to build GPP lineups by a pretty wide margin. I don't think it is possible to build profitable GPP lineups over time that aren't stacks. So then I will map out my ownership. I don't know exactly what mine will look like tonight, but my favorite offenses are Astros and Mariners. I might have a couple other offenses mixed in, but I will probably do something like 45% Astros/ 45% Mariners and then 10% of some other teams. Mix around some value guys with the pitchers I like. 

sangamc  6/14/2017 10:58 AM

GPP stacking strategy is my current dilemma when making GPP lineups. I play both FD and DK and deciding how many players to stack confounds me. On draftkings for example where you can stack up to 5 players I find my self changing between 5x3 4x4 3x3x2 on different days just taking shots in the dark but not understanding when or why to stack a certain # of players.

Any pointers to get me going in the right direction or am I just over thinking it and making matters worse for no reason?

gehrenberg   6/14/2017 11:55 AM

I don't think there is a one size fits all strategy, but most commonly i make 5 man stacks with 3 value plays. For example a guy like Ryan Raburn hitting 2nd last night in a favorable matchup at 2k salary, is good lineup filler. Also allows for spending up at pitcher, which is a consistent source of points 

#49107  6/14/2017 12:29 PM

Thanks gehrenberg. Appreciate the reply and helpful information.

tsfloyd  6/14/2017 8:51 PM

Up until about three weeks ago, I had great fortune making mini-stacks of exactly 3, 2 & 2 and one-offs for my cash games.

Lately, I literally can't make a lineup that scores 50 points, so I gave up.  I'm very frustrated why I can't figure out where I am going wrong.

I am tinkering with changing the L/R splits to 2017 only and see if that matters.  I'm thinking I'm using old data from last year that no longer applies, especially when it dilutes more recent splits.  That has made it worse.  I just can't get it.  It's like baseballmonster.com changed on me somehow.

As an aside, I understand why sharks make hundreds of entries into small contests to beat up on me, but why do sites let them?  All they do is run off people who are trying to learn, especially when DK does things like hang a "big win" badge on me that I don't deserve.

gehrenberg   6/14/2017 11:18 PM

The larger prize pool couldn't be supported without people entering lots of lineups,so it's a catch 22 of sorts because new players join because they see those large prize pools. There wouldn't be as much DFS appeal if everything was single entry. Plus there would be significantly less money raked in by the sites. I do think they should make more beginner contests and broaden the definition of a beginner player 

rsigler65  6/18/2017 10:07 AM

This is kind of a theory, because I've never made much money at baseball, but someone mentioned getting cleaned out around memorial day. I noticed watching a Nats game the other day, that it can quickly turn into a homerun derby if the temperature gets hot enough. We all know that weather is a big factor, but I had never seen such a stark example of hot air making fly balls turn into homeruns. I think there is a HUGE edge to MLB DFS'ers that unterstand how to exploit variance based on weather and other factors. And weather seems like a pretty easy one to exploit - it just takes some time to research it each day. If I were serious about MLB (which I'm really not this year) and I had a small amount time for research, one of the first things I would do is look for fly ball pitchers in hot weather and do some stacks. Even if the pitcher is elite.

jtcctj  6/18/2017 6:20 PM

I agree about the home runs, in fact after May is my best time for MLB. Partly because the players and teams have stabilized, and the home runs. ISO is my friend and SP ISO VS's is another. That being said, I haven't found what I consider to be a "sure thing". Keeps me from having to redeposit though.

sangamc  6/20/2017 5:10 PM

last year i used an IOS app called Home Run weather to help me select teams in good weather situations. Combine that with park factors, L/R splits, ISO and swStr% and I was able to at least break even during the summer.