Opposing pitcher use in projecting wins for daily?

mymaus  6/19/2013 6:03 PM

Do you guys use opposing pitcher as a factor in projecting wins for Daily and Head to Head Daily projections of wins? I know it's not one of the options but I just noticed that Wheeler has a .26 projected win against CHW next Tuesday. I thought it might be because he faces Sale.

If you don't use opposing pitcher, would it be hard to include it? Maybe you could simply adjust the projected wins based on the opposing pitcher's projected ERA for that game vs the pitcher's ERA.  The larger the difference, the more you adjust the wins projected.  Thoughts? 

ken_admin  6/20/2013 6:50 AM

The opposing hitters affect the projected win total, and also in Wheeler's case, we only have him projected at 5.4 innings with medicore ERA/WHIP which explains his low W projection.

mymaus  6/20/2013 9:22 AM

That all makes sense, but wouldn't some consideration of opposing pitcher make the Win% even more accurate? After all, you can't win if your team doesn't score runs. A pitcher's chance of winning is going to be much different if they are facing Justin Grimm vs Yu Darvish.

Come to think of it, if you really wanted to get more accurate you could add a pticher's own team's offense as a factor. I guarentee that if Kershaw, Strasberg or Harvey pitch for teams with better offenses they would have more W's. But now that I'm thinking this through you could still just use the opposing pitcher's projected ERA for that game since that already takes into account the batters he is facing.

ken_admin  6/20/2013 11:15 AM

We do look at a team hitters and compare them to the opposing team's hitters to help determine pitcher win%.  I'm guessing we don't use the opposing pitcher when determining projected hitter totals though.  As you mention, adding that would make sense.  I'm working on website adjustments today so I'll try to get that added too if it's not too complex.

Thanks

mymaus  6/20/2013 1:03 PM

Thanks as always!