Drop Chase Headley?

crucified77  6/25/2013 12:00 AM

Started a discussing on Pedro Alverez but he was nabbed but still wonder about dumping Headley for a better option.  mbuser said he was #8 last year, and that makes me not grab him over Pedro, but I'm still waiting for a return (I held him for almost half a season without much).  He seems to be a relative bust and may not able to return to his previous form (see Prado).   Assuming I can't trade him, any one have any thought why I should hold him?  I don't have much room for a bench in my points league as the bench net's no points.  I have 2 other 3B options currently so I don't even need a 3B but I would need to add a MI or CI if I did move him out. 

I'm in a points league that is based on SABR points (link), and have the situation in a Projection Spreadsheet JPG with MI/CI: https://skydrive.live.com/redir?resid=930269A5B1681F39!975&authkey=!AF9AsU_Hc7kyFEU

My 3B options on my team (average/game over 30 days):  1. Carpenter: 8.10   2. Headley: 2.41 (Prado: 2.76)  3. Rendon: 7.06

My league is based on SABR points  so it's not a normal points system and it doesn't count percentages, KO's and RBI's.  

Should I make a move to drop Headley?  I dropped Prado when he was (and still is) stinking it up and didn't regret it.  If so, who do I add? 

crucified77  6/25/2013 12:06 AM

Now Headley did have a good night I see... and is playing better over the last week but still not hot.  If he's a hold, for how long?

liam4  6/25/2013 7:43 AM

I agree with Matt that Headley is hard to drop, given his performance last year and before that.  He is leaps and bounds ahead of Prado, who I also jettisoned.  I generally trust the remaining projections, anyone ranked better than him that is available in your league?  Not sure I follow your scoring.

could also try trading him.

mbuser   6/25/2013 10:59 AM

How did Headley rank by your settings last season?

crucified77  6/25/2013 7:09 PM

He was 13th last season (avg. per game about 6.5 points).  There is no one available better based on this years projections (he's ranked 70).  Next best proj rank is Reynolds, Mark at  127 then Murphy, Daniel at 132, and then Uglla at 135.  Scutaro is 157 and is interesting.  

Based on actual there are many available as I listed above.  Seems like he's a sell/trade candidate for anything of quality you can get (which won't be too much).  

mbuser   6/26/2013 7:32 PM

At this point, I can't say I see a reason to hold him with multiple players in the 5+ ppg range. If anything, then it just gets the roster spot in play and you don't wait nex time to grab someone like Alvarez while he's crushing.

crucified77  6/27/2013 10:40 PM

Thanks for giving me the green light to drop him.  I wish I was able to get the courage to drop him sooner as I lost out on Alvarez but with the validation from an expert, I can have more confidence that at least I didn't make a rash decision.  I can hope that Pedro tanks and pick up someone else that rocks all the way to the final weeks of the playoffs.  Waiting on Headley for 2 months I saw him only improving a little bit lately so that gives me pause (of course this would happen).  Yes, I can add guys that are playing better (over 5 pts per game points for last 30 days): Iglesia (7)/ Franklin (6) / Arenado (5).  Then there is vets:  Scutero (5.5), Dozier (5), Plouffe (5)... Headley has been only 2.8.  

crucified77  6/29/2013 10:09 PM

I'm still holding Headley but by tomorrow night I may swap him out.  Please let me know who you think will outplay Headley during the 2nd half of the season (for MI/3B for my SABR points league)?

Available options Top players (avg. points / game last 30 days as of 6/27):

• Iglesia (7)
• Franklin (6)
• Arenado (5)
• Scutero (5.5)
• Dozier (5)
• Plouff (5)
• Uggla (5)
• Walker (4)
• BTW: Headley (3)

mbuser   6/30/2013 12:11 PM

Use the ROS projections. If someone's stands out that you think is way off, let us know

crucified77  7/27/2013 9:16 PM

Turned out holding Headley and have been pleasantly surprised with his recent turn-around.  Based on the ROS, I wasn't impressed enough with the FA's so I thought I would hold him... turns out he has some ability.  Now even Prado is playing welll but you have to wait more than half a season... not cool.  Hopefully it lasts.