Hosmer vs Melky

mymaus  6/26/2013 5:48 PM

I think Melky and Hosmer may need to have their projections examined. It looks like Melky will be batting no higher than 5th with Jose Reyes back (from the first or second spot). That will certainly reduce his runs thoguh his RBI's may tick up slightly. Overall I expect his value to go down in a 5x5 league, especially with his sore legs issue. Meanwhile, Hosmer has been getting hot lately and has been moved to the 3rd spot from 2nd spot. His runs may go down a tick but his RBI's should more than make up for that. I was thinking about droppoing Melky for Hosmer. What are your thoughts about that?

mymaus  6/26/2013 6:22 PM

One more thing...Melky hasn't been stealing as much this year. He's got only 2 and we're almost halfway done. I don't think he's going to get another 7 this year, especially when you consider his leg issues and that players generally steal less later in the year. The last one he actually attempted was on 4/26.

mbuser   6/26/2013 6:59 PM

Yes, the Jays are sticking with Bautista/Encarnacion at the 2-3, and the projected lineups reflect that now.

I've got less faith in the most recent KC lineup sticking, given that Escobar has hit .247/.277/.326 in the 2 spot so far this season (227 AB), but it appears that Ned Yost thinks it's a good idea to put him there again.

mbuser   6/26/2013 7:10 PM

Regarding the decision to move Escobar back to the #2 spot: And so the never-ending search continues ...

We'll see, anyway.

mymaus  6/26/2013 9:18 PM

Thanks. Curious...when you say "projected lineups reflect that now" does that mean you use some sort of formula (or simulation) that uses projected lineups as a factor in projections i.e. you move Melky from 2 to 5th and your formula calculates how that affects his projection or did you manually adjust the projections based on your best guess on the affect?

mbuser   6/26/2013 11:03 PM

Our stat projections change based on our manually adjusting projected lineups. Where a player hits (or is assumed to hit) affects things like # of plate appearances and R/RBI opportunities. If you go to the Daily Projections page and look at tomorrow, you'll see things like "Order 3" in the Matchup column. It is based off our projected lineup for that day until we get the actual lineup from RotoInfo, at which point any necessary changes are made.

mymaus  6/27/2013 1:03 PM

Hmmm...so do you go in and manually adjust daily projections if Rotoinfo lineup is differs from what you projected or does a "formula" automatically make the projection adjustments based on the change? That's seems like a lot of work if you do it manually.

ken_admin  6/27/2013 1:09 PM

The calculations take into account batting order so it uses the new lineup from rotoinfo rather than our default so it's automatic.

mbuser   6/27/2013 1:15 PM

Obviously, we've automated everything that was feasible