First pick

liam4  2/4/2014 3:13 PM

So Yahoo and ESPN have Mike Trout first.

Any thoughts yet on why he should be ahead of Miguel Cabrera?  Cabrera put up 1.78 z-score value on a per game basis, Trout 1.05.  Trout's obviously younger and going to play more games, and played 157 vs. Cabrera at 148 in 2013.  But that doesn't cover it.  What gives?

Only things I can think of is that Cabrera had a nagging injury to end the season, and Kinsler won't replace Fielder's production or protect him the same way.  Projection sites like Steamer have him at 20 lower RBI's; RBI rate through the first half of the season a fluke?

Otherwise, I'm thinking Cabrera pick 1, get my steals elsewhere.

mbuser   2/6/2014 9:04 PM

What gives is that Trout is a 22-year-old freak of nature. Trout's per-game in 2012 was 1.85, so obviously he can excel in that metric. Per-162 games for each over the past two seasons:

MT: .324/.416/.560, 32 HR, 45 SB
MC: .338/.417/.620, 47 HR, 4 SB

Obviously there is not mountains of evidence for not taking MCab at the top, but Trout has made a pretty strong case here in his first two seasons.

liam4  2/11/2014 4:36 PM

Fair enough.  RBI's are the other key category for Miggy... 137, 139 in past two years, and his most valuable category and over 3 standard deviations from mean in each year.

Trout could repeat 2012, but that rate of runs seemed unsustainable.

Obviously happy with either.  I drafted Miggy on one team last year and traded for Trout in the other.