1st year keeper - punt HR?

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avatarmattgus40  3/16/2014 10:24 PM

Just did an inaugural draft for a limited keeper league (4 hitters, 2 pitchers.) I was picking 8th and figured I'd get Harper/Darvish at those spots, and I did (I really like Harper in the keeper format.) After that it was combo of picking good, youngish keepers until those 6 spots were filled and then padding out according to best projections. About halfway through I lost connection to the draft for a bit and screwed up my plans for the C/SS positions so ended up with not great options there. 

Currently projected to land in 2nd place at the season's end (of course, an autodrafted team ended up with the best squad...) but wondering what I can do to bolster my squad. Here's the analysis:

10 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [6 Active = BA R HR RBI OPS K, 1 Punted = SB] | 8 Pitchers Per Team [4 Active = ERA WHIP SV SO, 1 Punted = W]

RoundRankPuntVLeagVPunt+NameInjuryTeamPosgNewsABRHRBIBBKBAHRSBOPSBAVRVHRVRBIVSBVOPSVKV
2150.560.54+0.03Pedroia, Dustin BOS2B154 594891768564690.29612170.7981.391.02-1.020.840.380.001.15
2190.530.49+0.04Harper, Bryce WASOF143 5378415182691180.28226150.8720.290.660.940.650.251.19-0.57
3280.520.33+0.19Craig, Allen STL1B/OF138 525681608841980.3051930.8401.83-0.51-0.061.06-0.790.670.11
3240.370.41 -0.04Choo, Shin-Soo TEXOF151 59110516866991350.28519200.8570.552.20-0.02-0.370.651.05-1.17
4370.350.16+0.19Butler, Billy KCDH159 5778016786651030.2891910.8000.830.37-0.040.93-0.950.03-0.04
4360.350.21+0.14Abreu, Jose CHW1B138 5157814081611070.2712850.845-0.440.221.110.64-0.620.72-0.18
4390.120.10+0.02Upton, Justin ATLOF149 5829415972711460.27325120.824-0.351.380.81-0.01-0.030.45-1.56
6560.07-0.06+0.13Sandoval, Pablo SF3B146 501631427445730.2841720.8030.40-0.89-0.290.14-0.870.081.00
983-0.27-0.31+0.04Lucroy, Jonathan MILC138 491591356641720.2741660.768-0.23-1.16-0.47-0.36-0.54-0.441.03
11107-0.40-0.46+0.06Lowrie, Jed OAK2B/SS138 532691416851880.2651520.751-0.86-0.44-0.59-0.26-0.81-0.740.48
12117-0.53-0.54+0.01Middlebrooks, Will BOS3B130 4205810962271120.2592250.777-1.00-1.290.40-0.66-0.59-0.26-0.38
16159-0.79-0.80+0.01Willingham, Josh MINDH/OF138 4826811267711400.2332320.777-2.75-0.530.53-0.32-0.85-0.30-1.38
RoundRankPuntVLeagVPunt+NameInjuryTeamPosgNewsABRHRBIBBKBAHRSBOPSBAVRVHRVRBIVSBVOPSVKV
  0.930.11+0.81Avg Stats/Total Values   1722 6,3479141,7608977051,2610.277242870.811-0.341.031.302.28-4.782.80-1.51
  2.221.43+0.79Avg Stats/Total Values (active)   1454 5,4457891,5397686081,0080.283196810.8173.412.850.373.26-3.343.200.25
RoundRankPuntVLeagVPunt+NameInjuryTeamPosgNewsIPHRAERBBSOHRERAWHIPWSVERAVWHIPVWVSVVSOV
120.970.99 -0.03Darvish, Yu TEXSP32 209.3158807378258213.141.131501.271.161.11-0.662.09
160.730.80 -0.07Strasburg, Stephen WASSP31 193.4161716659213173.061.141501.480.871.08-0.661.25
2190.690.28+0.42Rosenthal, Trevor STLRP72 75.4592322239452.571.094381.260.69-1.381.79-0.97
3260.390.01+0.38Perkins, Glen MINRP63 62.7482221167162.951.034320.600.94-1.501.43-1.39
3280.34-0.02+0.36Grilli, Jason PITRP62 59.4461918198162.661.104290.900.48-1.471.20-1.22
3290.32-0.03+0.35Robertson, David NYYRP66 63.0492120207152.811.094310.770.58-1.421.33-1.39
545-0.24-0.16 -0.07Salazar, Danny CLESP26 149.9130645951158173.561.21110-0.24-0.270.13-0.660.23
763-0.38-0.29 -0.09Cingrani, Tony CINSP27 155.8132696362175183.661.24110-0.54-0.850.07-0.660.54
RoundRankPuntVLeagVPunt+NameInjuryTeamPosgNewsIPHRAERBBSOHRERAWHIPWSVERAVWHIPVWVSVVSOV
  2.841.59+1.25Avg Stats/Total Values   378 968.97833703413291,121943.171.15691315.503.60-3.393.10-0.86
  3.211.88+1.33Avg Stats/Total Values (active)   351 813.1651302277266946763.071.13581316.034.46-3.463.76-1.40

In taking a look at the rest of the league, most guys are going to beat me in HR as well, but I'm currently ranked 3rd in AVG and 5th in Runs. So I'm thinking that I also punt HR and utilize the following FAs: Aoki, Infante, Markakis, Brantley, A Jackson (I think he's going to be better than the current projections), Scutaro, Alexei Ramirez. It seems obvious to drop Willingham for Aoki, but does that make sense to you guys as well? Should I also drop Middlebrooks for Infante?


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarmbuser   3/17/2014 2:58 PM

The danger in punting HR is that you sacrifice both RBI and OPS along the way, and you are already punting multiple categories as it stands. Take a look at Team Analysis before/after and see where a few of those moves leave you, particularly in terms of collateral categories. An interesting approach for this league, given the unbalanced offense/pitching categories, may have been to punt W/K, load up on offense, and just try to win ERA/WHIP/SV among the pitching cats.


0% Agree (0 votes)

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