Top Starting Pitchers

liam4  3/19/2013 11:28 AM

Can some people weigh in on when they are drafting top starting pitchers?

Looking at the baseballmonster rankings, it seems to give weight to taking Kershaw and Strasburg in the first round, even mid-first round.  Their values, particularly Kershaw, are well above other pitchers.  Anyone see evidence against this? 

mbuser   3/19/2013 12:09 PM

Talked about this with Scott Pianowski at the end of yesterday's podcast, check it out: http://baseballmonster.com/MessageTopic.aspx?topic=56

liam4  3/19/2013 12:40 PM

Thanks Matt.  Always appreciated your columns at Yahoo, and after you left I came here. 

Noticed that Yahoo O-Ranks just got a lot closer to baseballmonster.  They must be watching this space -- unless they were just way off.  Cespedes, Pedroia, Gordon, Medlen are now a whole lot tougher to pick up as steals in my draft...

After listening to the podcast, I don't think it responded to this question in particular -- putting ADP aside, are any pitchers worth taking between picks 5-10 from a value perspective?

Rapierman   3/20/2013 5:22 PM

Is it me, or are more pitchers flooding the early rounds of a fantasy draft?

mbuser   3/20/2013 5:27 PM

Scott talked about this in the podcast. There are a number of elite arms that you can have a lot of confidence in. Why pass on them if they are going to be fantastic?

Rapierman   3/20/2013 5:51 PM

It just seems a bit odd given the "stereotypical" (for lack of a better term) strategy of waiting until last the early rounds or early in the middle rounds to draft pitching.

mbuser   3/20/2013 6:11 PM

The times, they are a-changing? It's actually not something I ever subscribed to.

Hailfire4   3/20/2013 6:15 PM

The main problem with drafting pitching early is ur next picks all have to be hitters to compensate. So u end up pairing Kershaw, with Smyley and AJ Burnett. Defeating the purpose of an elite pitcher. Load up on hitting first then get more of the middle guys like Scherzer, Lincecum, Ian kennedy types. Trust me u do not want to be making "who should I cut for Chad Billingsley" posts after ur draft.

Rapierman   3/20/2013 6:24 PM

Yeah, that's what I always believed:  Drafting a pitcher right at the start means you risk losing out on high-powered batting talent.  Of course, it's "stereotypical" ("...but that's the way we've always done it!"), but it's worked for the majority of the population. ("If it ain't broke, don't fix it.")

Rapierman   3/20/2013 6:27 PM

Of course, this harkens back to an old question that I had asked before:  What is the batting equivalent of a pitcher's value?  I figured that the answer would explain why a pitcher, except in extremely unusuall circumstances, would typically start somewhere between the 5th and 8th rounds.

mbuser   3/20/2013 6:29 PM

So in that scenario, how many bats can you not risk passing on before you take a pitcher? How many rounds before the hitting is no longer high-powered?

Rapierman   3/20/2013 6:41 PM

Depends on your definition of "high-powered".  Typically, I start looking toward the 5th to 8th rounds, where I think I can afford to miss a bat.

mbuser   3/20/2013 6:57 PM

I've never been a fan of missing on a high-powered arm. If an elite starter is available to me in the early rounds, I'll consider taking him just as much as I'll consider the available bats.

Rapierman   3/20/2013 7:01 PM

So, the answer to the age old question of "how much batter is a pitcher worth" from you is "a pitcher is equal to a batter".

liam4  3/24/2013 11:11 PM

Thanks all for the thoughts.  Personally, as my thinking develops here, it seems worth taking the top tier pitchers (who I will define as Kershaw, strasburg, verlander and lee) in the top 5-12 picks, with the exception of lee, who I keep getting around pick 30.

The tier just seems far beyond the next (close to Trout Braun Cabrera, value-wise, as hitter first tier).  I used to agree that middle rounds were for pitching, but seeing the values has convinced me.  After taking pitchers early, i find myself picking for positional value and then filling out my outfield late, which isn't a bad thing -- and I think I can improve it with waiver pickups as the year goes on.