Injury risk methodology?

awinters  3/28/2014 5:50 AM

I was wondering if there is a particular methodology behind your injury risk assessments?  For example, Ellsbury, Hanley and CarGo are all big names generally considered injury risks, but are not currently on the DL.  You have them projected to play 149, 136, and 138 games respectively.  Is this based on just a general feel or is there some kind of data-based approach  that goes into how much of an injury risk a player presents? (E.g., considering things like age, position, total time previously missed, nature of prior injuries, etc.)

The reason I ask is that I'm trying to decide if I should rely exclusively on your playing time projections or if I could add accuracy by further adjusting playing time for injury-risk players?  I don't want to over-adjust for things you have already considered but I want to be as accurate as possible.  Even modest adjustments in playing time can move ratings significantly.

Thanks in advance for any thoughts on this.

mbuser   3/28/2014 1:40 PM

Playing time projections for those players are based on just about all of what you mentioned. But in the end, it's gut that is based on the data. Someone like Ellsbury has missed time for injuries that don't necessarily project to be recurring, whereas guys like Hanley and CarGo have had more trouble staying on the field due to penchant for major or recurring injuries. Of coruse it's an inexact science, so you may agree/disagree with the injury risk we've built in to any number of players - I wouldn't tell you to not use the Custom Projections option if you would feel more comfortable doing so, it's certainly part of the reason we provide it.