Daily Projections Monster Factors

jaw4527  4/1/2014 4:08 PM

Is it possible to break out the monster factors and not just lump them all together? I'd like to see the adjustment (like ease rankings for basketball), that are made for park factors, L/R, and opposing pitcher. 

For example when I look at Jason Castro for tonight (highest hitter ratio), it's hard for me to understand why. I get that his price is cheap and that his value goes down when monster factors are added, but it'd be helpful to see the components. He has a career woba of .237 vs LHP vs .352 RHP. Sabathia is projected to have a 3.8 FIP on steamer so lets say that's around league average. Then minute made slightly inflats stats for LHB. It's just hard for me to tell whether I agree or disagree with the projections without seeing how they're being adjusted from the baseline.

Braun might be a better example as his baseline value is 3.55 vs 3.30 when monster factors are applied. He's has a career .449 woba vs LHP vs .384 vs RHP so thats pretty significant. Wood has a 3.45 projected FIP so hes slightly above avg. Miller park should add some positive value for a RHB so unless wood is just rated super highly, I don't see how Braun's projection should go down when the factors are used.

mbuser   4/1/2014 5:27 PM

In Castro's case, it's simply a matter of DS pricing. He's the 10th-ranked catcher in value but 27th in price, which is odd considering the numbers he put up last season and that he's batting cleanup for the Astros. In Braun's case, you actually mentioned the reason for his slight downgrade - Wood is rated very highly, and all MIL hitters end up being downgraded for that reason.

jaw4527  4/1/2014 5:52 PM

ok fair enough and thanks for the reply. i still think itd be helpful to see these adjusments and their amounts broken out if possible

jaw4527  4/3/2014 11:03 AM

can you break down an example for me and how exactly you guys make your adjustments? i keeping seeing guys facing same handed pitching highlighted as values and guys who mash opposite handed pitching shown as poor values and it doesnt add up. this is for DS which i dont think adjusts salaries for opposing pitcher or park

mbuser   4/3/2014 11:56 AM

We use opponent strength (SP for hitters, lineup for pitchers), vsLHP and vsRHP for hitters, and park factors for both. We're also considering a few more that may be added shortly. As for the vsLHP and vsRHP - we're taking a look at its application specifically, to make sure it is dialed in and clear up any issues under/over application.

EddieDean19  4/3/2014 12:04 PM

Just want to chime in to say first that I find this to be a very interesting thread and appreciate your starting it jaw.  I'd love to see the type of setting that jaw is describing where we could turn the individual factors on and off and see their impact.

jaw4527  4/3/2014 12:36 PM

can i ask how specifically youre applying these factors or is that your secret sauce and youd prefer to keep under wraps? for vs LHP/RHP are you just taking into account the hitters splits or the pitchers as well (as some hitters as especially bad vs opposite hand pitching and some have relatively even splits). are you using wOBA or some other stat to determine this? are you using park factors by handedness and applied different across all the categories or just one generic run park factor? 

i appreciate you looking into the LHP/RHP to make sure its all working as it should

mbuser   4/3/2014 1:09 PM

Yeah, a lot of it is sauce that we'll keep internal. We do use separate park factors for LH and RH.

gehrenberg   8/29/2014 2:17 PM

Is home field advantage accounted for?

mbuser   8/29/2014 2:43 PM

Home/away splits and park factors are included, but home field "advantage" is not.