Use of Projected Standings for H2H

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avatarmymaus  4/29/2014 9:09 AM

I’m trying to figure out the best way to use BM’s GREAT projected standings feature for my H2H league. I think the best way to use this tool for H2H is to assume everyone on all teams is healthy so I assume that using the Per Game setting is best for this. I noticed that when I used it that way W’s, Saves and SO’s all come up 0’s. That got me thinking….

In order for the Per Game feature to be of any value, you must make an assumption about the number of games SP and RP’s will play per week. I’d imagine you could come up with an average SP games per week pretty easily by calculating an average team games/week and assuming a 5 man rotation.  For example if average team games/week is 6 (probably close but you’d have to find a more acurate number) then the average stats per week would be 6/5=1.2. Each SP per game stats could then be multiplied by 1.2 and then added up for a team total.

RP’s are tougher. You can’t just take an average appearences per week number and apply that because closers typically have less appearences than non-closers and some teams don’t have as many closing opportunities as others. I guess you would handle them similar like a part time offensive player like I explain below.

On the offensive side the only thing you have to watch using per game is part time players. Rajai Davis, for example, may have nice per game SB’s but he is not typically going to play all the games. For a player that is healthy you could take your projected # games divided by number of games remaining and multiply that by average team games that you calculated above. For a player on the DL, you could take the number of games project divided by the number of games remaining AFTER he returns form the DL (it looks like you store a projected DL return date somewhere) and multiply that by average team games that you calculated above.

I think that solves the Per Game feature problem.

Now…if you want to make it even more realistic allow me to put in a “schedule matrix” i.e. how many times each team plays each other. In a 10 team league you are going to play some teams twice and other teams 3 times. If your team plays the better teams more than your primary competition then that needs to be reflected in the projected standings.  For a 10 team league I think I would only need to put about 45 numbers in the matrix. You could then simply multily each teams performance against another team by the number of times they play them.

These 2 additional functions would greatly increase the accuracy of your H2H Projected Standings.


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avatarken_admin  4/29/2014 9:44 AM

Thanks for this, and we will discuss it and get back shortly.


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avatarmymaus  4/29/2014 12:18 PM

Thanks! The ideal result would be something that shows me which category would give me the greatest gain with relative to the availability of that category. For example, let's say that this tool shows me that SB's are 4 times as hard to find as Runs. Your tool could show me how many runs/week I would need to add to get 1 extra category win, 2 extra category wins, 3 extra category wins....It could also show the same info for SB's (and every category).  If an extra 4 runs a week gives me 2 extra category wins and 1 SB a week gives me an extra 3 category wins then I would try to improve SB's.


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avatarken_admin  4/29/2014 2:06 PM

That does sounds helpful, and we can at least come up with a way to let you know which categories are worth concentrating on and which can be ignored.


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avatarmymaus  4/29/2014 3:16 PM

Great! Let me know your progress in this topic. If you want more opinions, I'm full of them so don't be afraid to ask.


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avatarken_admin  4/29/2014 3:23 PM

OK, thanks.


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