Dominic Brown

#24684  3/23/2013 11:04 PM

Is this spring power burst just an anomaly? Should we fully expect DB to regress back to a 230-250 BA with little power, or is he finally putting it all together and potentially living up to the hype?

mbuser   3/24/2013 12:02 AM

As is usually the case, I wouldn't be fully expecting either extreme, but having a solid season with a more secure role seems realistic. Although we've been hearing about him for what feels like a while now, he's only 25.5 years old - definitely the upsidey type on which it makes all kinds of sense to use a late roster spot.

Hailfire4   3/24/2013 2:48 AM

I am taking a flier on this guy as often as i can. As a 2 year major league flop he might finally have figured it out. Then again even if he flops again it isn't like we burned a high pick on our ex-hype lottery pick.

guntaar2187  3/26/2013 10:00 PM

I'm admittedly a hopeless Phillies fan (guess it could be worse), but all signs point to Brown being the real deal. I normally don't take much stock in spring stats and their small sample, I think this is a different situation. Wally Joyner made an adjustment to Dom's grip which can be a huge difference. He's shown above average plate discipline in the past, he's just had an issue with making solid contact (which he's done quite well this spring)

crucified77  6/22/2013 1:23 PM

Now that Dominic Brown has arrived and slunk back, what do you do with him?

Any thoughts on trade value?

"Advice: Brown also drew a walk. The 25-year-old entered Friday's action in a 5-for-37 slump, so fantasy owners will have to hope that this is the start of something. He hasn't homered since back on June 8." (Rotoworld.com)

mbuser   6/22/2013 1:32 PM

Our projections haven't been climbing/falling dramatically, and they accurately reflect our opinion. His trade value is going to be all over the place, that's going to come down to your league's managers specifically. In general, the time to shop was certainly mid-streak.

HK-47  6/22/2013 3:21 PM

I wasn't sold on his power outburst, and think it will be viewed as an outlier when we look back at it. I wish I had some shares of him, so I could have traded him back when he was hot. I know a HR is HR, but many of his barely cleared the fence. Not to say he still won't get his share ( I am thinking around 10-12 ROS), but his average true distance is at 378 ft, where as the MLB average is 397 feet. Sometimes I may crunch too many numbers, and it can cause me to overthink in terms of players...this could be the case here, but I feel rather confident in my assertion. As stated, time ot sell was a while back. He still is fine going forward imo...some pop and speed is always a good thing. But, there may be some managers out there that may still buy into his 40 plus hr pace...wouldn't hurt to see what the going price is.

crucified77  6/23/2013 9:57 PM

Thanks for the thoughts guys.  When I see what he did I can't help to add him and believe it's a mostly sustainable movement / breakout being he's so young.  He's feats were incredible for May.  With that mind set you want to hold.  Maybe I need to start a thread on trusting Baseball Monster projections when young players exceed them.  

I read an article that said he needs to take some walks and pitchers will figure him out.  He may be a left handed Nelson Cruz going forward.  Interesting that the projections for Brown match this idea almost exactly.  Also his actual production rank for the year is about the same though it's above projections for both Brown and Cruz.  

mbuser   6/24/2013 11:27 AM

In 19 games between May 20 and June 8, Brown hit .397/.429/1.000 with 12 HR.

In 43 games prior he hit .243/.288/.414 with 7 HR.

In 13 games since he's hit .191/.264/.255 with 0 HR.

crucified77  6/27/2013 11:53 PM

He seems to be picking it up again lately.

Last 7 days: .333/.458/.625