|liam4 (283 posts) 5/27/2014 12:37 PM|
Following up with a quick intro to xFIP, as it's one of the dorkier metrics...
First, FIP measures what a player's ERA should have looked like, assuming that performance on balls in play (BABIP) is average. Research found that BABIP does not correlate well across seasons and much of variance can be attributed to luck. So it looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, HBP, home runs. Formula for those who care: FIP = (13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant.
xFIP then takes FIP and replaces a pitcher's home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed, using the league-average home run to flyball rate.
There are definitely limitations here, as K/9 and control can fluctuate, and some pitchers may be less homer prone than average. But as a blunt object, I think it's an awesome view on how a pitcher's doing and who to target, who to sell.
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