PLEASE give me feedback on this trade proposal - Thanks in advance!

mymaus  6/3/2014 10:14 PM

In my H2H OBP league I’m thinking about proposing Donaldson, Pujols and R. Soriano for Cargo, Harper and Morse. With Zimmerman coming off the DL, I’ll have 3B covered and a DL spot open.

Here’s my logic:

When both are healthy Cargo is better than Donaldson, unfortunately, Cargo seems to be always banged up so I think I have to downgrade him to only slightly better than Donaldson, although health is a big risk for me.

Pujols is only slightly better than Morse. Before you automatically reject that statement, according to heatmaps Morse average flyball=320 ft (4^th highest in MLB and 35’ more than last year) with a high angle whereas Pujols=278 (trending down even during this year) with medium angle. Morse has a better ISO, LD and IFFB rate though Pujols does hit a few more flyballs. Morse was playing with a bad wrist last year and is now healthy, Pujols never got his foot fixed and looks bad running. I know all the projections have Pujols MUCH better than Morse but I don’t think projeciton systems do well with injuries and since Morse was injured last year and is healthy now (as proven by his batted ball distance among other things) his projections are probably under estimated. On the Pujols side..he looks terrible running and his flyball distance is 10’ less tha last year so I don’t think he is any more healthy than he was last year.

Harper definitely better value than R. Soriano especially when I can pick up Qualls on the WW. Yeah I know Qualls<Soriano but not by the as much as Raja Davis (who I would eventually drop) < Harper.

I’m definitely making the playoffs in our league so Harper would be a HUGE help at the end of the year and when you combine that with the fact that my of of the cats in my league is Errors (Donaldson has 9 already this season) I think I have a winning trade here.

Please grade on scale of 1-10  (1=don’t do it, 5=fair, 10=huge win) and give reaction to my analysis.

orolo  6/3/2014 10:39 PM

I'm not entirely sure CarGo is better than Donaldson, even before you factor in health. I'd definitely want the Donaldson side in that deal, given the double injury risk on the CarGo/Harper side.

mbuser   6/4/2014 1:59 AM

What other funky cats do you have besides errors? I'd have a very hard time parting with Donaldson in an OBP league - in general, I'd be looking to hang on to him and work out something with a manager that overvalues Zimmerman.

mymaus  6/4/2014 8:57 AM

Thanks for the responses. All other cats are standard. It's a 6x5 with OBP and errors. I hate the errors category. It makes you avoid anyone who plays 2nd, 3rd or SS.

I think the news that Cargo might go on the DL might tip the scales toward not doing it, but what's your input for proposing the trade if he looks healthy when he comes back?

My main concern is Pujols. He's already been sliding this year and I think he's ready to really tank. His homers have been lucky (given his average distance) so I don't expect him to continue anywhere even close to his current rate. His OBP is .312 and though his BABIP is a little low I don't expect it to come up very much because he's not hitting the ball hard and his ground balls have increased. I wanted to sell now before it gets to the point where I can't get anything for him. Morse might even be better than him ROS. If that's the case maybe the trade is still good, especially if Cargo comes back healthy.

I agree that trading Zimmerman with Pujols would be ideal, but since he's right off the DL he'd have to establish a track record for at least a couple of weeks to get any value and if he's anywhere close to Donaldson offensively AND he's playing OF and 1B at least 60% of the time he'd actually be more valuable than Donaldson because he'd have less errors.On the other hand, if he goes back to playing 3B full time I think he'd have more errors than Donaldson. In either case, I'd hate waiting because I think Pujols is going to continue to slide.

I think this trade comes down to health. If Cargo goes on the DL and gets healthy and Harper comes back healthy I think I win this deal pretty easily.

Thoughts?

mbuser   6/5/2014 12:25 AM

I would ignore errors and worry about the other five categories. If CarGo and Harper return and go nuts, it could work out in your favor, but it's not a trade I would make. But sometimes you have to go with your gut and you clearly want to make this one happen.

mymaus  6/5/2014 8:30 AM

Thanks AGAIN for your response. When you have a chance, check on BM’s projections for Morse and Pujols. If you really think both projections are correct, then I agree the trade wouldn’t be as good and might be bad. But I think with because Pujols is hitting the ball at a shorter distance than in the past and Morse hitting for a MUCH longer distance Pujols gets 14 HR’s to Morse’s 18. I think Morse gets a couple more RBI than Pujols but Pujols more than makes up for it with a few more runs than Morse. OBP for Pujols ios about right at .337 but .308 is definitely low for Morse – should be more like the .325 he did in 2012 – the last time he was healthy. If you agree with me on these projections then you have to say that Pujols is only slightly better than Morse.

My reading indicates that Cargo's problem is a jammed finger (not like the ligament problem he had last year and, importantly, not the same finger). I think he take 3 weeks off (and let hi calf heal too) and comeback completely healthy. I think Harper comes back healthy too. I don’t think either will “go nuts” but I think they both will play at their normal pace for ROS. So, I’ve rethought my trade proposal now that Cargo is officially on the DL. I’m now thinking Donaldson & Pujols for Cargo, Harper and Morse (excluding R. Soriano). Thoughts?

P.S. I hate going with my gut without someone smart to support my theories.

mbuser   6/5/2014 12:40 PM

You CLEARLY want to make this trade, so I'm not going to tell you that you shouldn't. Starting with the lesser offer is almost always a good idea in trade negotiations.