Trade offer - trading hitting for pitching?

EddieDean19  6/10/2014 10:35 AM

I am in a league where we play with 11 hitting and 11 pitching categories (see below for team analysis).

Generally speaking I draft hitting ahead of pitching for reasons that are pretty commonly discussed (more reliable, etc).  As such, my offense is pretty good.  My pitching staff however is really pretty poor, especially since the one pitcher that I did use an early pick on is out for the season (Fernandez).

In negotiating I have a deal offered of Springer for Cashner, which I think makes sense for me as I feel like I'm selling high on Springer right now and I could use a good reliable pitcher for the staff.

However, the owner also offered me a very tempting trade instead of that one - Wainwright and Wacha for Cano and Springer.  So really it comes down to Cano for Wainwright plus the upgrade from Cashner-to-Wacha (since I'll do the Springer/Cashner deal otherwise).  Looking at my team, even without Cano I still have a pretty competitive offense (better than all but 2 out of 11 other teams), and it would seem that adding the two Cardinal W's to my staff would be a huge upgrade for pitching....but it's a big move of giving up a fair bit of hitting in exchange for a fair bit of pitching.

What are your guys thoughts on this?

Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	Name	Injury	Status	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	TB	OBP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	TBV	BAV	OBPV
	1	4	1.52	1.43	Cano, Robinson			SEA	2B	97		371	56	121	68	33	44	0.325	14	4	80	27	0	189	0.385	0.72	2.73	-0.40	1.62	0.34	1.89	3.07	-0.75	2.46	3.10	1.96
	3	25	0.57	0.47	Beltre, Adrian			TEX	3B	92		341	46	103	62	28	48	0.301	15	0	70	17	0	166	0.360	1.06	2.17	-0.86	0.38	-0.18	1.08	-0.15	-0.75	1.32	1.50	0.73
	3	26	0.51	0.31	Bautista, Jose			TOR	OF	81		288	55	79	52	52	51	0.273	20	3	45	14	0	152	0.390	2.01	1.11	-0.49	1.59	2.09	-1.06	-1.07	-0.79	0.63	-0.07	1.69
	4	39	0.36	0.16	Springer, George			HOU	OF	87		327	49	85	53	37	113	0.260	18	13	50	14	3	159	0.344	1.63	1.21	0.67	0.83	0.68	-0.58	-1.14	0.47	0.94	-0.78	0.07
	5	44	0.32	0.11	Markakis, Nick			BAL	OF	90		368	55	107	32	35	46	0.290	7	2	80	19	1	149	0.353	-0.70	-0.83	-0.66	1.48	0.45	1.89	0.41	-0.43	0.46	0.95	0.51
	5	47	0.27	0.91	Mauer, Joe			MIN	C/1B	91		339	49	99	40	46	64	0.291	7	2	76	15	0	134	0.376	-0.83	-0.08	-0.67	0.75	1.53	1.59	-0.59	-0.79	-0.25	0.93	1.42
	7	58	0.19	-0.20	Gonzalez, Adrian			LAD	1B	94		336	43	93	51	32	59	0.277	14	1	60	18	0	154	0.341	0.72	1.01	-0.75	0.09	0.21	0.27	0.37	-0.68	0.71	0.14	-0.03
	8	62	0.15	-0.06	Bruce, Jay			CIN	OF	96		341	46	84	47	40	95	0.246	17	5	45	20	1	159	0.327	1.49	0.66	-0.30	0.43	0.93	-1.04	0.97	-0.27	0.96	-1.60	-0.62
	9	68	0.09	-0.12	Beltran, Carlos			NYY	OF	90		322	42	90	49	26	53	0.278	14	1	56	18	2	152	0.334	0.66	0.89	-0.71	-0.11	-0.34	-0.11	0.37	-0.15	0.61	0.19	-0.32
	16	79	-0.06	-0.27	Crisp, Coco			OAK	OF	78		322	49	83	31	36	45	0.259	9	16	56	15	3	132	0.334	-0.24	-0.99	1.09	0.79	0.60	-0.11	-0.66	0.38	-0.37	-0.82	-0.32
	16	80	-0.07	-0.27	Hunter, Torii			DET	OF	87		326	36	94	51	14	59	0.289	10	2	64	18	2	145	0.324	-0.18	1.08	-0.62	-0.82	-1.47	0.60	0.35	-0.06	0.28	0.79	-0.71
	18	84	-0.10	-0.50	Butler, Billy			KC	1B	97		351	43	94	45	36	63	0.269	10	0	69	15	0	139	0.338	-0.16	0.40	-0.89	0.09	0.56	1.02	-0.73	-0.84	-0.04	-0.34	-0.20
	24	89	-0.16	0.01	Castro, Starlin			CHC	SS	96		360	34	97	43	20	58	0.270	7	7	67	19	3	145	0.313	-0.66	0.24	-0.04	-1.04	-0.94	0.83	0.55	0.65	0.26	-0.29	-1.28
	41	114	-0.37	-0.57	Aoki, Norichika			KC	OF	86		354	44	94	23	31	33	0.267	3	11	76	13	2	121	0.335	-1.64	-1.73	0.46	0.15	0.11	1.60	-1.39	0.10	-0.94	-0.46	-0.31
	43	117	-0.39	-0.48	Infante, Omar			KC	2B	79		324	37	91	34	18	31	0.282	6	3	67	16	3	130	0.320	-1.08	-0.65	-0.56	-0.63	-1.16	0.83	-0.54	0.50	-0.49	0.41	-0.88
	62	183	-0.90	-1.11	Cuddyer, Michael			COL	1B/OF	47		192	33	57	25	17	37	0.298	8	3	36	12	1	95	0.356	-0.59	-1.52	-0.48	-1.17	-1.22	-1.76	-1.73	-0.34	-2.22	0.75	0.33
	76	291	-1.90	-2.10	Dickerson, Corey			COL	OF	30		109	14	31	18	8	23	0.282	4	2	18	6	2	53	0.330	-1.45	-2.30	-0.64	-3.49	-2.06	-3.29	-3.54	0.18	-4.29	0.14	-0.14
Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	Name	Injury	Status	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	TB	OBP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	TBV	BAV	OBPV
			0.06	-2.30	Avg Stats/Total Values					1418		5,371	729	1,501	723	510	923	0.280	182	75	1,017	277	24	2,373	0.345	0.77	3.41	-5.88	0.95	0.13	3.63	-5.46	-3.57	0.03	4.51	2.18

Pitchers

Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	Name	Injury	Status	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	HLD	L	QS	CG	WV	SVV	ERV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV	HLDV	LV	BBV	QSV	CGV
	4	5	0.42	0.25	Doolittle, Sean			OAK	RP	42		41.9	31	12	11	7	44	3	2.31	3	19	0.91	3	2	0	0	-0.53	1.68	0.73	1.21	1.76	-0.47	-0.42	0.12	1.15	-0.61	-0.01
	4	8	0.35	0.19	Melancon, Mark			PIT	RP	44		43.2	35	13	12	8	39	2	2.45	3	11	1.01	8	2	0	0	-0.35	0.69	0.66	1.01	1.07	-0.62	0.76	0.30	0.99	-0.61	-0.01
	9	36	0.08	-0.09	Janssen, Casey			TOR	RP	39		39.1	32	15	13	10	35	3	3.10	3	16	1.05	1	2	0	0	-0.58	1.37	0.53	-0.12	0.64	-0.73	-0.68	0.19	0.87	-0.61	-0.01
	50	462	-0.55	-0.38	Haren, Dan			LAD	SP	17		98.6	101	44	41	18	80	13	3.70	7	0	1.22	0	5	11	1	0.85	-0.69	-1.55	-2.72	-1.34	0.56	-1.01	-1.31	-0.11	1.25	0.01
	55	496	-0.67	-0.51	Weaver, Jered			LAA	SP	18		113.0	97	53	49	30	86	13	3.86	7	0	1.12	0	5	10	1	0.83	-0.69	-2.16	-3.89	0.38	0.72	-1.01	-1.50	-1.34	1.21	0.01
	59	528	-0.80	-0.63	Cain, Matt			SF	SP	19		122.8	104	57	53	37	99	15	3.86	8	0	1.15	0	5	11	1	1.11	-0.69	-2.48	-4.22	-0.18	1.11	-1.01	-1.63	-2.16	1.39	0.01
	60	538	-0.84	-0.67	Kennedy, Ian			SD	SP	20		121.1	114	52	48	39	119	14	3.56	8	0	1.26	0	6	12	1	0.98	-0.69	-2.11	-2.65	-2.73	1.71	-1.01	-1.97	-2.34	1.55	0.01
	63	560	-0.96	-0.79	Garza, Matt			MIL	SP	17		106.3	105	49	45	35	91	12	3.81	7	0	1.31	0	5	10	1	0.82	-0.69	-1.89	-3.41	-3.30	0.88	-1.01	-1.20	-1.89	1.15	0.01
Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	Name	Injury	Status	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	HLD	L	QS	CG	WV	SVV	ERV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV	HLDV	LV	BBV	QSV	CGV
			-2.97	-2.63	Avg Stats/Total Values					215		686.1	619	294	270	184	594	76	3.55	47	46	1.17	11	32	55	4	3.14	0.30	-8.27	-14.80	-3.70	3.16	-5.40	-7.00	-4.83	4.72	0.03

#6959  6/10/2014 11:48 AM

I like the Cashner/Springer deal but Cano for Wacha seems a bit too steep for my liking.  You then are forced to start Infante or WW at 2B and I'd be worried your hitting decline offsets most if not all the gain you would then get in pitching.  

Honestly if I were you I'd continue to try and deal from positions of strength which for you appears to be OF.  I'd try and unload one of your 9 pure outfielders as most days they are wasting away on your bench.

Unfortunately for you your reserve OF's seem to be under performing to date but the moment a hot streak comes I'd be fishing out Beltran/Bruce deals or even Billy Butler (1B) if he starts hitting again.  You might not get an ace back but with your current pitchers I bet you can still get an upgrade.

If your still insistent on a stud pitcher I'd hook Bautista as bait before Cano IMO.

EddieDean19  6/10/2014 1:17 PM

To be clear, the second deal is Cano/Springer for Wainwright/Wacha, so I get both Wainwright and the Cashner-to-Wacha upgrade for Cano (not just Wacha)..  Not sure if that would change your analysis.  Yes, at 2B I'd have Infante and maybe the best on the WW is Hill right now, who is more or less equal in value to Infante in my scoring system.

ken_admin  6/10/2014 1:28 PM

Checking your settings, your pitching categories really favor RP (7 of the 11). Why would you have any starters on your roster?

EddieDean19  6/10/2014 1:55 PM

Well an interesting and surprising question I hadn't really considered.  So let me think this through.  First, there is a 25 IP minimum each week.  So that means I probably need 4 starts per week to hit it realistically?  (3 is possible but seems unsafe).  So a bare minimum starting rotation would be 4 guys?

Also as far as starters go, there are 3 SP, 1 RP and 2 P.  So I couldn't just pile up relievers either - I have the 3 relievers now who are always slotted in as starting.   I could see getting one more middle reliever for additional holds and a fill-in for days off or rest days for overused relievers, but what would I do with the additional roster spots?  More hitters on the bench?

I guess the 7 of the 11 categories you mean  are L, ER, ERA, WHIP, SV, HLD and BB.  Of those, I can see how going "minimalist" with relievers and limited starters would win L, ER and BB most weeks (SV and HLD are less predictable).  ERA and WHIP give advantage to relievers but with 25 IP the starters would have a big impact on it too.  Meanwhile W, QS and K would be lost almost every week (CG is rare under any circumstances). 

So I guess given that data (25 min IP and the roster spaces) if you still think ditching starters is the way to go?  It's an interesting thought exercise.  I'm also going to look if there are any relievers with SP eligibility who are getting HLD or (much more unlikely) SV....

EddieDean19  6/10/2014 2:01 PM

As far as pitchers with SP eligibility, Mejia is the only one with saves, and he's obviously very scary (and I don't need SV much any more since Doolittle (who I drafted for HLD) got named the closer).

I may be able to find some guys who are getting a smattering of HLD with SP eligibility, but not many and they are not excelling in ERA/WHIP either (e.g. Torres, Phelps, Grimm).  I think all are still spot starting too.

ken_admin  6/10/2014 2:45 PM

Yes, the innings minimum is the challenge. Checking your projections, 35 of your top 36 pitchers are all RP with Kershaw being the one SP. Ideally, you would get to 25 IP each week with a minimal number of starters. I think you're right that you would need 4 starts each week (assuming 5+ inn each) to get 20 and then fill the rest with RP. If you had 2 aces that held down the WHIP/ERA, along with decent RP, that would get you most of those 7 cats each week. Unfortunately, you have no aces :) Adding Wainwright would be a good step, and Wacha has value too since it looks like he's an SP/RP. I would try to give up less than Cano/Springer for them since we're hoping the other owners don't value the elite SPs as much as you.

EddieDean19  6/10/2014 5:41 PM

I really appreciate this conversation - it's definitely made me think about strategy for the league more, though not certain I can take much action this season.

You are right about having real ace pitchers to rely upon, and I certainly don't (Fernandez was one, but....).  That said, I don't think I can get Wainwright for less really - the Wainwright/Wacha offer was made to me in the midst of a conversation that started with just hitting for pitching.  I might be able to give up Bautista instead, but I really need him for power.

After talking here, and also looking at my results this season, where I have unintentionally been dominating in the "under" categories like ER, BB, L as well as SV and HLD, I think my best path in this trade negotiation is to go with Cashner for Springer.  I do feel I'm selling high on Springer, and I can rely on Cashner more than any of my other current pitchers.  I think maybe I can roster 5 pitchers (maybe 4 but that's a bit riskier), and try to get 4 starts out of them trying to manage the matchups, and keep the IP low and win the "under" categories, as I have been doing.  With Cashner, Cain, Weaver I have three fairly reliable guys.  Garrett Richards is also a FA I noticed - not sure if his hot start will continue but if it does...

Anyway, I don't think it's a good strategy for me now to sell off my good hitting for star-level pitching at this moment.  My biggest issue is that lately I have a glut of bats (believe it or not I just got Bruce off the WW) and really scary pitchers like Garza and Kennedy (and McCarthy who I recently cut).  Cashner, Cain, Weaver, Richards and I guess Haren is at least a somewhat reliable combo, I think...

I really appreciate the thoughts (and any further thoughts if you have them - I probably will ponder this a bit longer).  I am a heavy user of the site, even though I don't frequent the message boards often.  Really glad to get some great insights.  Thanks!

jyang61107  6/10/2014 6:56 PM

Its only a 24 inning pitch per week.  You have enough of a rotation and can get rid of some hitters for waiver wire picks.  It better than giving Springer up which is slowly becoming like a J. Abreu.  

ken_admin  6/10/2014 8:26 PM

Is it possible to get something better for Springer? Maybe the owner of Lee is ready to give up on him? Also, someone like Alex Wood may be good to trade for in case Atlanta needs another starter.

I also noticed that you have custom projections imported. Are those something you keep updated, or would it be best to delete those?

EddieDean19  6/10/2014 9:34 PM

I may shop around a bit to see what I can get for Springer, though this discussion has been going on for a little while now.

Thanks for asking about the custom projections - I do keep those fresh - at least I refresh them periodically when I'm doing some more detailed analysis like this (last updated the hitters 2 days ago).  I also use the BBM projections, but figure more sources are better than fewer.

I definitely appreciate the input on this discussion.  It's making me rethink my strategy for this game - both short and long term.  I did ask the owner what I would have to pay for just Wainwright (no Wacha), just to see if that might make sense.  That falls into the "getting an elite pitcher" category of trade....

ken_admin  6/10/2014 9:46 PM

With your unique settings, there should be an opportunity to turn things around. Good luck, and let us know how it goes.