Trust the Projections

descender  6/15/2014 11:24 AM

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/you-should-trust-the-projections/

A lot of really good stuff in here, and maybe some lessons for us all.  We constantly ask for (myself included) adjustments to the projections based on current season (and extremely recent) performance. 

Apparently, this may not be a good idea. :)

mbuser   6/15/2014 12:26 PM

There is certainly nothing wrong with asking about tweaks or adjustments for individual players after you've taken a look at things and found some areas that you feel deserve a second look on our end. We're certainly going over the numbers constantly ourselves and making adjustments where we see the necessity. What we would discourage - and what this article should point to - is that it doesn't often make sense to bump a player up/down significantly based on a relatively small-sample hot/cold streak. Of course, one of the keys to success is identifying when unusually good/bad performance is just a streak and when it's the new normal, and taking advantage of the situation.

gehrenberg   6/15/2014 5:39 PM

Great article I believe I have found most value here by trusting the projections and buying players playing underneath their projections and selling players that are performing above their projections. Of course there are occasional misfires but I won 6 of 7 yahoo pro leagues for basketball using basketball monster and am projected to win all 6 of my yahoo public baseball leagues. By in large part the players are who we think they are and even though players do change it seems safest to stick to what we already know about individual players even if it's not correct all the time it seems to be correct the majority of the time 

gehrenberg   6/15/2014 5:43 PM

The times I like to see projections changed are notable playing time difference, the major one being where a players hits in the lineup or if a pitcher sees a significant change in velocity. 

jyang61107  6/16/2014 9:46 AM

One of the best article written for us Fantasy junkies.

Best thing to do is to have a spot to rooster a hype and drop them once its over or trade them high in a package deal for an upgrade. Taveras, Oscar - STL should have been traded on the hype and hold on the Polanco, Gregory - PIT hype.  Now how many more sleepers do we have left in this season?  Maybe Brown, Domonic - PHI will wake up soon.  

Update: Heaney, Andrew - MIA sleeper about to wake.

kenjlev18baseball  6/16/2014 6:14 PM

I sometimes question projections when a player has been playing well above projections for the season. However, I always go with what's decided by the Baseball Monster team, as they're the experts, not me. I won a championship doing that last year, so I have faith. I just like before I make what I consider tough choices, to be sure I'm dealing with the most up to date possible info. Thanks for all you do guys! 

jyang61107  7/8/2014 8:52 PM

I just want to bump this article for everyone that doesn't understand the metrics and values.

Metrics come in play on draft day.  We draft the best metric rated player we can get.

Value is what wins the fantasy league. Value is real fact, real numbers. Numbers that metric use to make them work.

We will never find out exactly when a player breakout or slump until the there is enough value to calculate into the metrics. That is when we either see a slope upward or downward , where downward represent regression and upward represent breakout.

Here are some notable players that metrics have really destroyed some fantasy team.  Chris Davis, Carlos Gonzalez, Bryce Harper, Prince Fielder(failure), Joey Votto, David Wright, Evan Longaria.  All round 1 picks.

But if you made some trades based on convincing metrics to a manager and get value in return you can save your fantasy team.

Here are some notable players with round 1 value drafted way down the board.  Nelson Cruz, Michael Brantley, Victor Martinez, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier( where he come from?) Dee Gordon( FLASH WHO?)  Anthony Rendon( ???).  

Now if you traded based on value you would have probably convinced a manager in selling high to you.  It can be a good thing if you are able to see a value trend where the metrics will come and match it later on.  It would be a bad thing if you fall into a value trap and pay the price.  Example of these value traps are short term Value where a player is HOT.  BBM does a great job in detecting hot trends and tell us to be patient on this based on their underlying metrics.  Example of this would be me trading Chris Davis as soon as he came back from the DL and smacked a trend of HR for Ryan Braun. Metrics say Ryan Braun is the winner so I went for it and the other manager bit on the value trap.  Another would be getting Adrian Beltre for Pablo Sandoval, Sean Doolittle, Jenry Meija and Iwakuma Hisashi when Adrian Beltre Value was very low and coming from the DL whereas everyone else I offer looked great on Value.  Now this can be a question where I came big because I needed a good 3B but the other manager came big too because the Value sticked.  Sean Doolittle is the permanent closer and ranked 21 and Iwakuma Hisashi is ranked 35 and Adrian Beltre ranked 17. So it is up to you to decide who win this.

Now the real question is when to buy the Value and when to sell the Value.  I don't know and that why it is Fantasy, if I knew I would win every Fantasy out there and I'm sure other Mangers will be able to do the same.  That is why BBM is one of the best site that I'm willing to pay double to triple just to read their daily updates and reason for their metrics and values.  Recently J.D Martinez had a huge bump and that is a question mark.  BBM diligently upgraded his Metrics based on the Value he made, for them to do that they really believe in him until the Value goes bust and the metric normalizes.  But as of right now you can sit comfortable with J.D in your lineup.  Now would you be able to trade J.D Martinez and Matt Latos for let say to a manager needing a SP for Nelson Cruz, you probably can.

Take this RANT as something to think about and judge me however you can, as I value your opinions because they help me get a feel of what other manager think about their players.  

Thanks for you time and keep up the great work BBM.

I was ranked 12 in the beginning of the season to 30% of the season and now ranked 3 almost mid season and projected as ranked 1. :)

gehrenberg   7/8/2014 10:31 PM

I don't understand what you mean when you say a player's metrics have destroyed a fantasy team, I also want to know what you mean when you talk about loyal dogs. Also what did you mean when you said that metrics can only explain what we can get. That sentence didn't make any sense to me. 

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 12:09 AM

For me I generally use the advanced metrics to try to figure out what performances are sustainable. For example if a player is batting way above their career average, but also has a BABIP much higher than career average I consider that players performance to be a fluke and for his average to regress to the mean. But jyang you appear to look at these metrics differently so I was wondering what it is you do with these numbers. You said you like these numbers but don't apply them to fantasy, so I was wondering how you assess metrics such as BABIP, Siera, GB% etc. 

jyang61107  7/9/2014 9:25 AM

Loyal Dog is a term used in the marketing world.  It is a product that people have grown accustomed too but doesn't make enough money anymore. Still have buyers but profits are limited.  I'm sure we all understand breakout star.

Now in the fantasy world...A loyal dog would be Albert Pujols, there was no suggestion that he would be this bad the past 2 years and now this year he has some redeeming qualities.  A break out star would be Nelson Cruz... Who would have thought selecting him as your 6-10 pick would have generated a ranked 2 player thus far.  So would you trade Albert Pujols for Nelson Cruz?

Metrics all point to Albert Pujols producing at a good rate now and Nelson Cruz as something unsustainable.  In terms of hitter we use WAR to judge them.  Albert Pujols with a WAR of 1.5 and Nelson Cruz with a WAR of 2.7. 

Metrics say Nelson Cruz is better than Albert Pujols...But that wasn't the case in the beginning of the season.

I do like these numbers and I don't apply everything I see to fantasy.  If you want to know what I care the most about in regards to the numbers are not as advance as yours.  I only care about the standard categories in ROTO and H2H...Since those are what is counted to make money which is the VALUES of the players.  Metrics only exist with VALUES coming first.  Without any VALUES in place you can't really make a projection of metrics.

That is why FANTASY is made to ride on hot players and not hold out based on metrics saying yeah he should be a round 1 player but so far he's in round 12 worthy at the end the VALUES on the stats sheet at the end of the season is what your worth and not some metrics saying yes your team should be worth this much and sorry try next season.

Going back to Albert Pujols and Nelson Cruz.  If I had Nelson Cruz I would trade for Albert Pujols plus a good pitcher or closer in a 2 for 1. and if I had Albert Pujols I would try to trade for Nelson Cruz 1 on 1.  

Giving up the Loyal Dog for a breakout star gamble or trading in the breakout star and getting 2 good metric players.

Hope this help for people in making their decisions in trading and streaming. 

BBM site has a great comparison tool to let you compare metrics and values. Player analyze "Full Season Projection" and comparison column to "Season Total" then the rest is up to you to decide and then to get the edge...watch the games and see if the metrics are really 100% right.

jyang61107  7/9/2014 9:31 AM

On a side note... I don't care how good the metrics are projecting Mike Napoli as a 72 rank in hitting against Chris Sale. I'm just not starting him.  His Value has been on a slide and I will be in fact starting Pearce, Steve - BAL tonight instead if he does play tonight at ranked 171 but Values says a lot about him : ).  Lets do this.

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 10:53 AM

You are confusing what we call metrics to the BBM projections. While technically that is a metrics by the definition of the word, when we use the word metric we are talking about the advanced stats of baseball, which have a lot of influence on the projections. 

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 11:00 AM

I think you are making a mistake if you just compare WAR for fantasy players. You are misusing that statistic. WAR is a tool that compares the amount of wins a player creates and incorporates defense and adjusts for position. There isn't a lot of use for WAR in evaluating fantasy value. There is value in looking at a surge in a stat such as swst% and assuming that pitcher will see in increase in strikeouts. 

Dsnutts123  7/9/2014 11:03 AM

This year is my 1st yr playing fantasy sports.  I went undefeated in football scouring the internet constantly for tidbits of info to help me win.  That was exhausting.  Then heading into basketball I found BBM because I needed something to crunch all the info for me.  I I feel the draft  tracker info is awesome.  However throughout the season I find other players in my league who use other sites  jump on the breakout players before I do because BBM  often says to wait n see...  So I miss out on a CJ Cron or a Steve Pearce or a Martin Perez.  So I am torn with BBM I dominate my basketball and my baseball draft but throughout the season other players are landing the breakout guys before me....

I feel I need to join rotowire just to see what the competition is doing and cross reference with BBM

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 11:16 AM

I wouldn't want to own CJ Cron, Steave Perce or Martin Perez for the rest of the season, these are all players who have had high variance seasons but we should always consider their value to be what we expect their mean performance to be. We shouldn't evaluate players by their high or low points. 

seahawks126  7/9/2014 11:28 AM

I really wish I could be in fantasy leagues full of jyangs

jyang61107  7/9/2014 11:48 AM

We can make that happen.  I will be in for basketball and would not mind dueling with you : ) I play a maximum of $500 per league and a minimum of $250 per league. Currently looking at a good profit once this season is over in baseball and will be looking forward to basketball.  You can use the same tools like I do but I know I will have the edge if you based everything on these tools hoping your player perform to metrics.  I know for a fact when I see a hundred dollar in my pocket its a hundred dollar in my pocket and not hoping it to be a wad of one hundreds.

#6959  7/9/2014 11:49 AM

I find this site is fair most of the time between striking a balance of short term sample size vs longer term expectations.  Nobody will ever agree 100% of the time and baseball is by far the most complicated with the amount of players plus minor league call-ups.

The more productive question is something gehrenberg alludes to with breakout players or young players with little to no MLB experience.  At what point does it make sense for BBM to incorporate more of the MLB trends vs what the minor league track record suggests.  On the flip side with older players what is the tipping point from a "bad couple months" to a longer-term downgrade.  I don't think there is a perfect answer but if there were ways to better predict this BBM becomes more valuable.

Also another thing I'd like to see if at all possible is in my head the amount of downgrades vs upgrades should be roughly 50/50 distributed.  I wonder how many times (BBM or other sites) call for improved performance in projections only for it not to materialize. My bet is the reality is most sites are positive biased (we believe player X will improve) when in reality more often than not they don't. Put another way (and I don't have proof of this) but my guess is sites are quicker to bump than they are to downgrade.  

As you can see this is really basic stuff but complicated answers for which I don't really have any idea on how to improve.  But if there was a way to better factor in changes to projections this site will continue to have a great competitive advantage (on top of what it already does).  

jyang61107  7/9/2014 11:54 AM

@6959 That is why I trust the Values when they do appear.  When someone hits a HR its a HR regardless.  When they calculate HR per game at 1.07 it get down to guessing. I'll believe it when it happens.  That is why I always leave 2 spots to stream hot hitter and pitchers.  I'm thinking about adding 1 more streamer based on how there are so many hot hitters and pitchers coming out of no where now.  What would happen if you held on to Mike Napoli and Carlos Beltran for the whole season when you had the chance to grab Loonie Chinsehell and JD Martinez during that time on the stream play.  How would your final counting stats look like ?

#6959  7/9/2014 12:03 PM

Jyang,

I agree and disagree.

That streaming spot makes sense to me provided you have unlimited moves or aren't weighted down into $ per transaction or other limits.  If any of those apply you need to make smart moves and not irrational moves given the cost/benefit.

Having just jettisoned Beltran a week ago it felt weird, and not right based on name, but despite my waiting too long probably I felt comfortable doing it based on this site.  I'm not sure if I did not have BBM that I would of done that in hopes of an improved health situation or coming back to his historical averages.  

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 12:07 PM

When someone hits a home run it's regardless of what jyang? 

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 12:10 PM

Also I stream players based on matchups. I don't believe hot and cold streaks to be anything more than natural variance. I don't think that over a short period of time players actually abilities are fluctuating. There is plenty of research to back this up such as the famous hot hand  fallacy research paper. 

seahawks126  7/9/2014 12:16 PM

Jyang are you actually suggesting that home runs are 100% attributable to the hitter's skill and 0% to luck? If luck didn't matter then every player would either hit a home run every at bat or never.

jyang61107  7/9/2014 12:19 PM

@6959 Beltran is still rated as 140.  1 week ago he was 100 2 week ago he was like 70.  He is border line hold right now.

I based this all on H2H and ROTO and not DF play.  If it was DF play then it would be solely based on metrics that I would trust.

@gehrenberg A HR is a HR regardless of anything. I would stream these type of players until their wheels fall off.  I would use the metrics and compare it to the total value and see if it would be wise to keep riding or it time to let go and get something more consistent. 

Glad BBM changed the front page to top hitters and pitchers 2 weeks.  It used to be rest of season top hitter and pitcher. Sure do want everyone to see the values of the players.

Please note - All my thoughts are in regards to H2H plays and ROTO plays.  I'm not interested in keeper leagues or daily fan duels.

jyang61107  7/9/2014 12:28 PM

@seahawks126 yes HR is 100% attributed to hitter skills.  If he can hit it then he can, its how often he can hit it is the question. When I see someone like JD Martinez hitting HR in 3 games straight he instantly becomes a pick up to stream for the coming days.  Its much better than sitting on a cold player like Chris Davis to hit the HR.

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 12:31 PM

Home runs are absolutely not 100% hitter skills. A players likely hood of hitting a home run is based on a number of circumstances such as the park the player is playing in and the pitcher being faced. Any player playing in Colorado facing Franklin Morales is more likely to hit a home run than facing Kershaw in Los Angeles. Also Jyang I would like to know how you differentiate streaks from variance or do you just not believe in variance. 

jyang61107  7/9/2014 12:52 PM

What I should have said.  When you asked me if it was 100% hitter skills.

@gehrenberg and seahawks126  I think I misunstand your meaning of 100% hitter skills.  

When you tell me 100% hitters skills.  I would imagine a person holding a bat and hitting a homerun.  If he has no experience in hitting a Homerun then he will not hit a home run, if I would to play baseball I would never hit a homerun because I don't play baseball but if you were to tell me to do 50 straight pull ups then I can do it and it would be 100% skills for me.

If you meant it in the context of parks and pitchers then it goes up in the air of when its a good day or bad day and that when your right on luck comes into factor.  Your right that Kershaw will have more good days than Franklin Morales and your right on playing in the small park COORs. 

But I can't put all my money into luck.  If I see a HR I count it as 1.

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 12:59 PM

Yes but the difference is you have no competition when you do pull ups. If you did pull ups and there was a person trying to hold you down it would make the pulls ups more difficult to do and they could become increasingly difficult depending on how strong the person trying to hold you down is (pitcher being faced by the hitter). And then you could add other aspects to the pull ups such as where they are being done. If the pull up was being done on the moon as opposed to the Earth they would be easier due to there being lesser gravity (the stadium). When player performance is being projected off the waiver wire other factors other than the player are important to take into consideration is the point that I am trying to make. 

jyang61107  7/9/2014 1:24 PM

@ghrenberg  I agree with that and I was just about to allude to you on what you think and how I was thinking.  Lets agree an apple is an apple and it can't be an banana.  When we have all these players play they make a stat point that is put into our record book and at the end of the season whoever has the most points is the winner.  

I just can't bear the fact of living with myself at the end of the season and say I have all these great players but did not win because they didn't put up those points at the end of the season.  If I were in a keeper league then I would be more than happy to play those players again.  

But in my H2H and Roto league I only get 1 current season.  Win or lose and no next time with the same players unless I choose to draft them again.  So when a player puts up 4 HR in a game he would be rooster in my lineup the next day regardless if he was projected as the ranked 1000th player.  I would use him till their metrics follow up to his performance and if it does not I would drop him or trade him off.

Honestly let say you had this lineup. Would you have played Napoli or Pearce for the pass 2 weeks.  I played Pearce because I looked on his game logs and he was smacking it.  I didn't care who it was and what happen but he was smacking it.  I look at Napoli projections on rank 20 that day rank 50 that day rank 100 that day where Pearce was rank 200 or 300.  BBM is telling us its best to stick with Napoli but not a must.  If it was a must then they would tell us 100% Napoli that night.  They give us the best projections possible but its up to you to use it or not.  I just don't want managers to be screwed because they lean so much into projections and forget what the players are really doing.  Let the players play and show you what they do then the metrics will catch up to them.  If you can't believe it then don't, just stream them until their wheels fall off.  I'm not telling everyone to drop a cold player that was round 1 or buy a waiver wire player.  If you happen to get a hand on those player then use them to make your fantasy record sheet look golden at the end of the season and not having to wait till the metrics catches up.  When that does catch up, it will probably be too late.  If you seen my comments below on G. Polanco on when we should have stashed him you will see that I missed money right there.  He was a waiver guy into the season and now he is a STUD. I was waiting on the metrics to show up  in the majors and my lack of patient to watch minor league games when all value was placed on his minors.

On a side note with the team I have right now I'm projected as ranked 1 by 12 points.  I'm am sitting at ranked 4 and behind 10 points.

The question for me is when I need to make moves to get consistently and get rid of what can be.

Kind of like playing roulette.  When those hot numbers come out you will always want to bit something on it, even if you truly believe betting on black or red is the best.

12 Teams | 14 Hitters Per Team [5 Active = HR RBI SB R BA] | 8 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
2	13	1.05	Beltre, Adrian		TEX	3B	68		251	33	80	48	19	33	0.317	11	0	1.06	2.38	-0.83	0.42	2.23
2	15	0.92	Braun, Ryan		MIL	OF	63		253	41	74	34	23	52	0.294	11	7	0.98	0.60	0.36	1.67	0.99
3	27	0.64	Rizzo, Anthony		CHC	1B	69		253	39	70	37	33	52	0.276	14	1	1.66	0.94	-0.65	1.24	0.01
3	32	0.45	Adams, Matt		STL	1B	57		229	30	70	39	12	55	0.305	9	1	0.50	1.19	-0.72	-0.16	1.44
3	35	0.41	Murphy, Daniel		NYM	1B/2B	69		280	36	84	29	18	36	0.299	6	9	-0.59	-0.12	0.57	0.82	1.40
4	41	0.32	Holliday, Matt		STL	OF	64		247	39	70	31	34	41	0.282	9	2	0.29	0.21	-0.58	1.33	0.33
5	60	0.09	Napoli, Mike		BOS	1B	65		220	33	57	34	36	74	0.259	11	1	1.03	0.54	-0.75	0.44	-0.80
7	74	0.00	Pearce, Steve		BAL	OF	62		212	31	58	30	23	46	0.275	9	4	0.32	-0.04	-0.24	0.01	-0.04
7	80	-0.07	Heyward, Jason		ATL	OF	66		229	30	61	29	28	44	0.266	8	7	0.11	-0.08	0.28	-0.15	-0.51
10	116	-0.40	Gomes, Yan		CLE	C	58		193	24	54	29	12	46	0.279	7	0	-0.10	-0.16	-0.85	-1.01	0.11
10	119	-0.42	Mauer, Joe		MIN	C/1B	62		229	30	64	26	30	43	0.282	4	1	-1.05	-0.48	-0.66	-0.17	0.28
11	131	-0.50	Aybar, Erick		LAA	SS	63		231	24	64	27	10	24	0.278	4	5	-1.17	-0.35	0.01	-1.06	0.08
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
		2.50	Avg Stats/Total Values				766		2,827	389	806	393	279	545	0.285	103	39	3.05	4.64	-4.06	3.37	5.52

seahawks126  7/9/2014 1:32 PM

Roulette is entirely random. You are dumb.

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 1:39 PM

I also happen to think the roulette is random. I don't think there are any numbers that heat up. I was wondering what your opinion is on the difference between natural variance and streaks in baseball. 

jyang61107  7/9/2014 1:48 PM

What about black jack on a dealer Ace up card and you have 16 total.  Do you hit or stand.  Natural variance tells us to hit and the value from counting the card tells me not too.

Going with baseball.  Difference between natural variance and streaks in baseball is obsolete. You can't predict a streak until it happens.  You can only get a good guess on when it can possible happen but it can't be 100%.  But you can be sure you will not miss the boat by getting in on 5% natural variance chance than wait for 6%-100%.  It will take me a streak of 2 games for me to be streaming a guy.

Search Wizard of odds in regards to roulette its not random if you bet red and black you will never lose but will never make money.

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 1:58 PM

No you will lose money because of the zero and double zero. Red and black each have a less than 50 percent chance of coming up, but either way I still disagree with you and think that roulette is random. I don't think that numbers get hot in roulette. In terms of baseball I think of all streaks as natural variance. Just because a player has hit home runs in two games in a row I don't believe that has any impact on how he will perform in the next game. This is the entire point of the hot hand fallacy research. Which is why when I evaluate players off the waiver wire I consider the talent level of the player, the pitcher being faced and the ballpark they are playing in. To me these factors are much more important than how successful has this player been over the last 48 hours. Recent performance means very little to me. I do not believe hot streaks to be anything more than natural variance. It seems implausible to me that I player actually improves his skill set for a week out of the year. 

jyang61107  7/9/2014 2:02 PM

What is your opinion of Chris Davis come draft day when he broke Miggy triple crown last year? and Albert Pujols before he went to ANA?

Well everyone has their preferences, I just can't solely rely for the best when I see what real in front of me.

Also who do you think are the top 10 players in this year for hitter and pitchers.  Would you agree with BBM projections of them or should I be paying you for the analysis. If you can take this team and make it better then let me know.  I have Tanner Roark on waiver wires but will not be dropping him for anyone on my roster. Your thoughts?

12 Teams | 14 Hitters Per Team [5 Active = HR RBI SB R BA] | 8 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
2	13	1.05	Beltre, Adrian		TEX	3B	68		251	33	80	48	19	33	0.317	11	0	1.06	2.38	-0.83	0.42	2.23
2	15	0.92	Braun, Ryan		MIL	OF	63		253	41	74	34	23	52	0.294	11	7	0.98	0.60	0.36	1.67	0.99
3	27	0.64	Rizzo, Anthony		CHC	1B	69		253	39	70	37	33	52	0.276	14	1	1.67	0.94	-0.65	1.24	0.01
3	32	0.45	Adams, Matt		STL	1B	57		229	30	70	39	12	55	0.305	9	1	0.50	1.19	-0.72	-0.16	1.44
3	35	0.41	Murphy, Daniel		NYM	1B/2B	69		280	36	84	29	18	36	0.299	6	9	-0.59	-0.12	0.57	0.82	1.40
4	41	0.32	Holliday, Matt		STL	OF	64		247	39	70	31	34	41	0.282	9	2	0.29	0.21	-0.59	1.33	0.33
5	60	0.09	Napoli, Mike		BOS	1B	65		220	33	57	34	36	74	0.259	11	1	1.03	0.54	-0.75	0.44	-0.80
7	74	0.00	Pearce, Steve		BAL	OF	62		212	31	58	30	23	46	0.275	9	4	0.32	-0.04	-0.25	0.01	-0.04
7	80	-0.07	Heyward, Jason		ATL	OF	66		229	30	61	29	28	44	0.266	8	7	0.11	-0.08	0.28	-0.15	-0.51
10	109	-0.35	Aybar, Erick		LAA	SS	65		239	25	66	28	10	25	0.278	4	7	-1.05	-0.21	0.36	-0.92	0.08
10	117	-0.40	Gomes, Yan		CLE	C	58		193	24	54	29	12	46	0.279	7	0	-0.10	-0.16	-0.85	-1.02	0.11
10	120	-0.42	Mauer, Joe		MIN	C/1B	62		229	30	64	26	30	43	0.282	4	1	-1.05	-0.48	-0.66	-0.17	0.28
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
		2.64	Avg Stats/Total Values				768		2,836	390	808	394	278	546	0.285	104	42	3.17	4.77	-3.73	3.50	5.52

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 2:17 PM

My opinion of Chris Davis is that he is a great power hitter who has been dealing with injuries that have not allowed him to perform to the level he is capable of performing at. Albert Pujols is a player who peaked a few years ago and when he signed the contract with the Angels nobody with any sort of baseball knowledge thought it would be a good contract. He was hurt last year so his performance should be seen as an anomoly. However, in terms of his value as an actual baseball player I believe he has been pretty in line with what fangraphs predicted the rest of his career would look like when he signed the contract. Being in his mid thirties the injuries are going to continue on and off for the rest of his career. And I don't know enough about your league to help you with roster moves. But I probably wouldn't play Gomes or Aybar everyday I would rather stream off the wire looking for better day to day matchups. 

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 2:19 PM

Pearce is own able as long as he hits in the 2 hole for the Orioles, but he will soon be dropped in the order and lose all fantasy relevance. 

jyang61107  7/9/2014 2:27 PM

Chris Davis projections has been trending down and down. He was ROS 26 before I traded for Braun.  At this point I think C. Davis is finally in a good projection spot based on what he doing now. And dealing with injuries and age is hard to put into statistic, in rare occasion you get someone hurt coming back strong but you have A. Beltre.  I want his genetics. Yes I agree with Gomes and Aybar but there is no one out there better in a ROTO league 12 team.  Very questionable in owning JJ Hardy over Erick Aybar and thanks to asking the BBM gods they tell me to keep riding Aybar.

Once Mauer is well I'm going to package him to someone that needs a Catcher.

Own	Round	Rank	Value	CompV	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
	5	55	0.12	-0.70	Hardy, J.J.		BAL	SS	72		250	30	73	33	12	36	0.293	0.18	0.46	-0.88	-0.07	0.92
	10	109	-0.35	0.22	Aybar, Erick		LAA	SS	65		239	25	66	28	10	25	0.278	-1.05	-0.21	0.36	-0.92	0.08
	12	140	-0.55	-0.77	Simmons, Andrelton		ATL	SS	68		262	31	66	24	18	28	0.253	-0.33	-0.83	-0.33	0.06	-1.32
	13	149	-0.64	-0.88	Santana, Daniel		MIN	SS	55		239	26	65	19	10	50	0.272	-1.51	-1.44	0.69	-0.73	-0.20
	13	156	-0.68	-1.36	Suarez, Eugenio		DET	SS	57		172	22	46	23	16	45	0.267	-0.82	-0.96	-0.04	-1.26	-0.33
	14	167	-0.76	-1.02	Cabrera, Everth		SD	SS	63		248	26	60	17	23	54	0.242	-1.57	-1.74	2.01	-0.67	-1.84
	16	183	-0.89	-0.70	Lowrie, Jed		OAK	2B/SS	64		229	27	56	24	23	36	0.245	-0.65	-0.84	-0.89	-0.54	-1.53
	16	187	-0.91	-0.84	Bogaerts, Xander		BOS	SS/3B	65		213	23	53	23	20	57	0.249	-0.73	-0.85	-0.60	-1.12	-1.26
	17	200	-1.03	-0.67	Owings, Chris		ARI	SS	50		159	15	43	20	8	33	0.272	-1.25	-1.29	-0.07	-2.40	-0.13
	17	204	-1.05	-1.16	Cozart, Zack		CIN	SS	67		215	20	55	23	10	35	0.254	-0.88	-0.95	-0.75	-1.68	-1.01
	18	212	-1.10	-0.99	Miller, Brad		SEA	2B/SS	63		185	21	44	19	17	39	0.240	-0.75	-1.44	-0.36	-1.50	-1.43
	19	218	-1.13	-1.94	Drew, Stephen		BOS	SS	58		194	21	45	21	19	52	0.233	-0.84	-1.20	-0.32	-1.49	-1.82

Own	Round	Rank	Value	CompV	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
	10	117	-0.40	-0.35	Gomes, Yan		CLE	C	58		193	24	54	29	12	46	0.279	-0.10	-0.16	-0.85	-1.02	0.11
	10	120	-0.42	-0.60	Mauer, Joe		MIN	C/1B	62		229	30	64	26	30	43	0.282	-1.05	-0.48	-0.66	-0.17	0.28
	14	165	-0.74	-0.60	Jaso, John		OAK	C	47		172	27	46	19	27	35	0.269	-0.95	-1.43	-0.55	-0.53	-0.25
	15	178	-0.84	-1.08	Ruiz, Carlos		PHI	C	52		204	26	55	19	18	27	0.270	-1.03	-1.46	-0.66	-0.77	-0.26
	16	185	-0.90	-0.86	Navarro, Dioner		TOR	C	49		160	21	44	20	12	25	0.272	-0.69	-1.27	-0.87	-1.53	-0.13
	16	188	-0.92	-0.85	Martin, Russell		PIT	C	56		193	24	45	21	26	47	0.234	-0.35	-1.15	-0.32	-1.01	-1.76
	16	191	-0.94	-0.91	Saltalamacchia, Jarrod		MIA	C	58		184	21	45	22	20	60	0.246	-0.19	-1.07	-0.70	-1.54	-1.19
	17	198	-1.02	-1.01	Avila, Alex		DET	C	57		177	24	42	20	26	58	0.239	-0.67	-1.25	-0.75	-1.00	-1.43
	19	219	-1.13	-0.70	Suzuki, Kurt		MIN	C	51		163	18	44	18	11	19	0.271	-1.20	-1.53	-0.84	-1.93	-0.17
	19	227	-1.23	-1.16	Flowers, Tyler		CHW	C	53		158	19	35	18	14	60	0.224	-0.17	-1.58	-0.83	-1.79	-1.77
	20	231	-1.26	-1.18	Castillo, Welington		CHC	C	51		165	17	41	17	14	45	0.250	-0.71	-1.65	-0.86	-2.12	-0.94
	21	241	-1.33	-1.21	Grandal, Yasmani		SD	C	47		156	18	38	16	23	39	0.244	-1.01	-1.84	-0.80	-1.91	-1.07

gehrenberg   7/9/2014 2:39 PM

By streaming I mean picking up different shortstops and catchers everyday when they are have favorable matchups. For example Avila has a decent matchup for tomorrow (against Guthrie a weak right handed pitcher), but then you would drop him for Friday and find some other waiver catcher with a good matchup. This is how I play roto leagues and fill positions that my team is weaker at (usually catcher and shortstop).

seahawks126  7/9/2014 5:47 PM

I think I'm going to start repeatedly banging my head against the wall now

descender  7/10/2014 7:54 PM

The purpose of the article in the original post seems to have been completely lost in this conversation.

Your decidedly... questionable views on draft theory and player values belong somewhere else.  Preferably somewhere I can't read them.