Cutch again

Bravesneverlose  7/8/2014 8:55 PM

I know we went through this before with cutch, maybe im reading the chart wrong but 84th player tonight i guess it will never make sense to me. The guy might me the best player in baseball and should be top ten every njght. Guys skyrocket over him, avg players that are moved up in the batting order for a game. He bats 3rd every night.

this is gonna look results oriented but i almost posted about this earlier today 

Bravesneverlose  7/8/2014 9:00 PM

Actually hes 85th mookie betts was 84th. Batting 9th for the red sox with a .174 average

mbuser   7/8/2014 9:12 PM

Here are the underlying factors: Cutch hits LHP better than RHP. Righties vs Carlos Martinez this season: .202/.271/.221. Park factors for @STL work against righties.

dsdza  7/9/2014 9:04 AM

aaand he homers.  

mbuser   7/9/2014 10:30 AM

As mentioned in the original post, it's going to look results oriented. We projected 3.09 DS points for Cutch yesterday, a game Value that he's finished below 43 times out of 88 games. We have to be results oriented ourselves, meaning moving players up/down based on everything that has happened to this point. The indicators for Cutch yesterday:

on the road [link]:

in STL [link]:

facing Carlos Martinez as a righty [link]:

What we can't do is look at everything pulling his (or anyone else's) projection down and say "he's a great player so we should just bump him way up anyway." Everything about last night's setup said stay away from Cutch, but he beat the projection. We're certainly not claiming 100% accuracy here, but we are claiming to use everything that is a factor to the best of our ability in order arrive at these daily projections.

dsdza  7/9/2014 11:03 AM

totally understand, matt.  just one night he was able to overcome the projections.  although past history/factors do play a big part in my day-to-day decision making, rarely will I make the decision to sit my first-rounder and 'doubt' his abilities to come through especially coupled with the fact that he's ranked #2 over the past month in fantasy.  

mbuser   7/9/2014 11:06 AM

Yes, this thread technically is dealing with DFS projections, where we said to spend your big money elsewhere in the OF. It's a very rare occasion that we'll suggest to remove Cutch completely from your daily lineup in full-season fantasy.