Yasiel Puig

shoemosher  3/25/2013 3:07 PM

Anyone looking to take a shot with this kid with a last round pick? Seems like a huge upside possibility should he be able to crack the lineup via injury or a trade. 

mbuser   3/25/2013 3:40 PM

It's going to have to be an injury, because nobody is going to trade for any of those OF contracts. Carl Crawford isn't exactly an ironman.

mbuser   6/16/2013 1:27 PM

Manager Don Mattingly said he expects Yasiel Puig to remain in the major leagues for the remainder of the season. Even when Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford return from the disabled list, Mattingly thinks there will continue to be enough at-bats for both Puig and Andre Ethier. “I think there’s enough playing time for everybody in the outfield,” Mattingly said.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-dodgers-yasiel-puig-20130616,0,1384421.story

Figure on Ethier hitting the bench vs LHP (.581 OPS this season, .644 career) and Puig giving Kemp, Crawford, and Ethier days off versus RHP.

crucified77  6/22/2013 12:43 AM

Latest talk from Mattingly:

Crawford / Puig- LF  -  Kemp / Ether- Center   -  Puig / Ether - RF

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-dodgers-yasiel-puig-matt-kemp-andre-ethier-20130621,0,1469897.story

Who is the odd man out?  I doubt it's Puig the way he's hitting the ball!

mbuser   6/22/2013 1:34 AM

Nobody is the odd man out. Ethier won't play much vs LHP but will still get his starts otherwise. Everyone will rotate but, simply put, Puig will not play every day if everyone is healthy.

crucified77  6/22/2013 12:43 PM

Accoring to mbuser thoughts, assuming that Either, Crawford, and Kemp all play 85% of the time vs. RHP, Puig can play vs. RHP about 33% of the time.  Vs. LHP assumming Either is out and he plays 100% of the time.  

What % of pitcher or lefties vs. righties?  If it's 33%/66% then Puig plays 33%*66%+100%*33%=55% of the time.

That is really unfortunate if he plays only 55% of the time, sad for baseball and the Dodgers, however, the article I quoted put Either as the man going part time and Rotoworld expects Ethier to be the guy that becomes the part timer: http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/7172/yasiel-puig

Isn't Puig the Dodgers (and maybe the league's) best hitter?  I don't see him sitting unless something changes with his game.  

--

Est. playing rates with the above assumptions (not considering my thoughts):

Crawford - 85% (takes one day off every 6 games)

Either - 56%

Kemp - 85% (takes one day off every 6 games)

Puig - 55%

mbuser   6/22/2013 12:54 PM

Sitting vs LHP as part of a platoon = part-time. It's not as if we project Puig to never play, but you do have to expect an OF making a combined $280M over the next five seasons to get some run. Ethier is of course the inferior player in this mix, but it's in the team's best interest (particularly with them in last place) to get him playing time and hope he can re-establish some trade value. Puig is clearly going to be around for years to come in any case.

crucified77  6/22/2013 1:17 PM

That makes sense, and if what you say is true, anyone with Puig should sell high right now before Crawford and Kemp both are back.  They could have a handcuff situation otherwise where they could try to aquire Either and have either him or Puig in the rotation.   The discussion probably should be looking now what you can expect to get for Puig.  

I have him, do you think I should shop him for a top 25 or top 50 player or should I add Either as a bench player (who is a FA)?

mbuser   6/22/2013 1:25 PM

Use the projections as your guide, they are there in part to answer those exact types of questions. I would certainly shop him. I would have been shopping him for the past few weeks. I would hope you are in leagues where nobody is ridiculous enough to give you a top 25 player for him. And Ethier is not much of an impact player in most cases.

crucified77  6/23/2013 10:18 PM

Thanks for the help.  As I mentioned in other threads I have a hard time trusting projections for the young break out candidate players.  I tend to follow the actually play and see the projections as lagging.  In this case he's hot and doesn't show any signs of cooling off but he will have to sit a fair amount, I can understand based on these 2 guys coming into the picture soon.  It's just not fair to the world to see him sit for any of these other guys when he's playing so well, so I can be wishfully thinking I can hold him and he can continue his production.  

liam4  6/24/2013 7:49 AM

I just don't see mattingly sitting puig much unless he falls into a prolonged slump.  Too much on the line for mattingly, and fans see puig as their version of the nearby angels' mike trout.

Most likely, I think you see Ethier or Carl Crawford traded (Ethier if they can), given losing season and contracts.  But otherwise I think Ethier is odd man out, contract be damned, and puig plays at least 85% of the time if not more.  Could be totally wrong, will see how it plays out.

by the way, between crawford's injury history and kemp's somewhat lost season, I wouldn't be surprised if one of these guys returns to DL for extended period and makes the debate moot.

tomm0  6/24/2013 10:20 AM

Some pitchers have been making Puig look foolish with off-speed pitches down and away.  He's still so young though, so that can be expected.  I am sure he will adjust to them as the league is starting to adjust to him.  Like Liam said, given injury history and the current state of the team, it's hard to imagine he'll be sitting much.

crucified77  6/27/2013 11:26 PM

I like the optimism that Puig will continue to play full time or close to it.  I tend to agree as it would be a crime to baseball and the fans for the Dodgers to sit him at all as long as he produces like so.  He continues to produce as I hear him hit a base hit with the bases loaded tonight.  He's not perfect as he didn't lift if for a grand slama and only hitting 500 with runners in scoring position. 

BTW: Don't forget to write him in on your all-star ballots!

liam4  7/3/2013 10:22 AM

puig-ing... like tebowing but instead you just amass a lot of hits and home runs.

crucified77  7/6/2013 9:40 PM

Kemp is back and so is Crawford yet Puig is still playing all the time, even when he get's dinged on a hustle play with the wall, he still plays...  I am about 90% sure we'll be able to see Puig play every day, unless he stops hitting the ball (like tonight but it's rare for him not to get some hits so far).. until then I would ride him or trade him for a top 20-25 player. 

BTW, for the All Star Game: he didn't get enough write in votes in time, and the manager didn't pick him, however, he can (and should still be voted in): http://mlb.mlb.com/vote/?tcid=ASG13_HP_MW

crucified77  7/11/2013 11:08 PM

It's a shame he didn't make the All-Star game.  Who is Freddie Freeman?  Bud Selig involved in a conspiracy? 

Enjoy this on Puig from ESPN Sports Science: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GZ3OFzB9c8

mbuser   7/12/2013 1:01 AM

Hah, no, let's be honest, it would have been in "baseball's" best interest that Puig made the game, given the storyline. Freeman getting it was the system working as intended, with the votes being what decided it - I'm sure part was a strong ATL contingent, part was a strong anti-LA contingent, and part was a strong anti-ESPN contingent.

liam4  7/12/2013 8:22 AM

Yasiel Puig's jersey was in the top 10 of MLB jerseys sold this year, even though he debuted June 3rd:  http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9469926/buster-posey-san-francisco-giants-leads-mlb-jersey-sales

My Yasiel Puig projection campaign continues.  Dodgers can't sit him, he's a rock star

crucified77  7/22/2013 12:37 AM

As Kemp came of the DL Puig was benched not related to his hip injury on Sunday.  He's been in a slump 4 for 25 (.160) over his last 6 games.  His manager said “He seemed a little lost, for me, the last couple of days. Just kind of confused at the plate. Give him a day to watch.  He sees what they’re doing to him. … I think he’s caught in the middle a little bit, between looking for that breaking ball and the fastball.” 

Kemp them injures himself in the game (ankle) but Kemp said it's not bad and obviously doesn't want to go on the DL again.  Puig need to get out of his funk.  Don't know how the lawsuit is affecting him, or his disappointment not making the All-Star team... but it could be pitchers have figured out is weakness (how do they apply Kryponite to the ball?).  

Even without hitting well lately he makes the highlight reel: Watch Yasiel Puig make the most unbelievable throw of the season

mbuser   7/22/2013 12:45 PM

What a throw

Puig's contact% is currently 65%, which would put him among the league's worst for all players if he qualified. Just about everyone else in that neighborhood is hitting in the .200-.220 range.

mdig66  7/24/2013 3:10 PM

Cargo and Chris Davis are in the same neighborhood.  Contact% is a meaningless metric.

mbuser   7/24/2013 4:12 PM

Obviously you can't make complete assumptions about a player simply based on contact%, but is there really nothing to be said about a league-worst contact%? I brought it up in relation to Puig's slump, given it's certainly something that can be taken advantage of with proper scouting. Simply put, Puig swings and misses a lot, and his K% is only rising (below). The more he swings and misses, the less likely he'll be to accumulate fantasy stats.

[Fangraphs]

crucified77  7/24/2013 10:22 PM

I'd say Puigs slump is over, this week I unilaterally declare he's official out.  Got a walk, HR, double, and went 3-5 and last night was 2-3 w/ a walk and HBP.  I'm not sure what to make of his league worst contact % when he's still hitting .369/.409/.571.   He's not taking walks yet when he hits the ball he's getting extra base hits.  I'll take that line on my fanasty team any day (unless he ends up slumping again and then sitting).

descender  7/25/2013 12:50 PM

To be fair, Puig only the 3rd worst in the league now at 64.5%. (min 100 PA) :)

Some other notable names near the bottom of the league in Contact %

Alvarez 64.9, Stanton 66.8, Kemp 67.5, Hamilton 69.5, JUpton 70.1, Davis 70.4

I'd say that Contact % is probably not very reliable.  What is reliable is his overall plate discipline (or complete lack thereof).

Puig swings at 81% of the strikes he sees (z-swing%, 2nd highest in the highest).  He misses 18.8% of those pitches (2nd worst in the majors).  He is going to have to start taking pitches before he can start "taking walks".  Until then he is just going to strike out on average once per game.  

He has a .453 BABIP which is incredibly unsustainable.  When that comes back to earth and his slash line is more like .260/.305/.480 (close to Steamer ROS) who is going to be swooning over him then?

Every time he hits a HR it's another "sell high" moment for Puig owners.  Who will be smart enough to cut bait this time around? 

liam4  7/26/2013 5:55 AM

Interesting article on Puig, swing rates etc.:  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/word-going-around-on-yasiel-puig/

I don't see him collapsing, and am holding onto him on both teams unless I can get top 20 talent.

he won't hit .365, and babip does indicate some regression, but his contact rates will improve, and his babip will be well higher than league average given high line drive rates and hard hit ground balls.  He also has the speed to go on a run of SB, and the power is clear.