daily run projections

seahawks126  7/14/2014 9:16 AM

I've been attempting to use baseball monster projections to come up with daily team score projections, simply by adding up the projected runs scored for each player in the lineup. Is this a reasonable method for creating score projections. And what factors go into these numbers?

ken_admin  7/14/2014 10:17 AM

If you try this, I would only include the starters since we estimate 1.0 games for them. Obviously, some starters will be replaced by bench players during the game, but for run totals, I would ignore the bench. How does that look?

seahawks126  7/14/2014 12:30 PM

I've actually noticed that the team run total projections closely match the Vegas lines only when including bench players. I'm not sure what to make of this, but wouldn't it also be different when looking at games that use a DH vs. not a DH?

Additionally, am I correct in assuming that home field advantage is not accounted for, only park factors that affect both teams equally?