Indians daily projections 7/23

youdacao  7/23/2014 11:07 AM

Daily projections for the Cleveland Indians seem quite low. Their lefty bats usually mash righties and have a great matchup today vs Anthony Swarzak making a spot start. It looks like a low HR projection is pushing their values down.

I'm looking at FD projections. Michael Brantley, 3.34 FD Avg for the season is sandwiched between this bunch. According to this, Brantley (15 HR) has the same probability to HR as Adam Eaton (1HR)

		48	$2,600	8.936	2.32	Arcia, Oswaldo		MIN	OF	1		CLE (Bauer R) L Ord 6			75°	0.159	0.432	0.020	0.447	0.351	0.504	0.187	0.034	0.1	2.5	0.63	0.43	0.04	0.45	0.35	0.50	0.37	0.10	0.07	-0.63
		51	$2,400	9.606	2.31	Jones, James		SEA	OF	1		NYM (Colon R) L Ord 2		-1.5 (+165) (o/u 7.5)	65° 80%	0.027	0.356	0.274	0.430	0.110	0.942	0.167	0.056	0.0	2.8	0.11	0.36	0.55	0.43	0.11	0.94	0.33	0.17	0.02	-0.71
		52	$4,000	5.705	2.28	Brantley, Michael		CLE	OF	1		@MIN (Swarzak R) L Ord 3	15ab .333/.375/.333		75°	0.057	0.531	0.108	0.447	0.308	0.843	0.141	0.011	0.0	2.6	0.23	0.53	0.22	0.45	0.31	0.84	0.28	0.03	0.04	-0.65
		55	$3,000	7.430	2.23	Eaton, Adam		CHW	OF	1		KC (Shields R) L Ord 1	7ab .571/.571/.857	+1.5 (-165) (o/u 7.5)	70°	0.055	0.317	0.118	0.504	0.284	0.809	0.196	0.043	0.1	2.9	0.22	0.32	0.24	0.50	0.28	0.81	0.39	0.13	0.07	-0.73
		56	$2,600	8.564	2.23	Nieuwenhuis, Kirk		NYM	OF	1		@SEA (Walker R) L Ord 6		+1.5 (-195) (o/u 7.5)	65° 80%	0.129	0.420	0.064	0.396	0.415	0.497	0.204	0.024	0.0	2.5	0.52	0.42	0.13	0.40	0.41	0.50	0.41	0.07	0.01	-0.64

This undervaluation holds for other Indians. Jason Kipnis projection is 2.06, Lonnie Chisenhall 1.67. Can you guys fix?

ken_admin  7/23/2014 11:13 AM

Swarzak was overrated as an SP compared to his RP stats. He's been adjusted to account for today, and we're looking into applying a generic adjustment for RPs that have spot starts.