Dozier/Stroman/Lindor for Cobb/Carpenter?

Mvand  7/28/2014 9:14 AM

H2H Points 12 team keeper league.

I'd be getting three 3 year (the maximum in my league) keepers in Dozier (15th round), Stroman (24th), and Lindor (19th). I'd be able to use my minor league spot on Lindor this offseason, unless he somehow gets 75 PAs. I'd be giving up Cobb, who only has one keeper year left in the 11th, and Matt Carpenter, who has 2 years left in the 24th.

It seems like a fair deal all around, where I get 3 starters for 2. My question is how much of a drop off I am seeing, if at all, from Cobb->Stroman and Dozier->Carpenter. Dozier is having a better year than Carpenter, but I'm concerned about a possible 1 year wonder + Minnesota offense.

Below is what they look like today in my scoring format:

Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	Name	Injury	Status	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	CS	GDP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	KV	CSV	GDPV	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	L	SHO	QS	CG	HBP	BS	IPV	WV	SVV	ERV	SOV	LV	HV	SHOV	BBV	QSV	CGV	HBPV	BSV
	5	22	318.50	307.54	Dozier, Brian			MIN	2B	102		400	72	92	47	52	88	0.230	19	16	55	18	0	5	5	76.00	47.00	32.00	72.00	52.00	55.00	36.00	0.00	-44.00	-5.00	-2.50
	25	132	175.50	175.28	Stroman, Marcus			TOR	SP	15																											67.3	59	26	24	15	59	5	3.21	6	0	2	0	8	0	0	0	202.00	18.00	0.00	-24.00	29.50	-8.00	-59.00	0.00	-15.00	32.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
			318.50	307.54	Hitter Get Players					102		400	72	92	47	52	88	0.230	19	16	55	18	0	5	5	76.00	47.00	32.00	72.00	52.00	55.00	36.00	0.00	-44.00	-5.00	-2.50
			175.50	175.28	Pitcher Get Players					15																											67.3	59	26	24	15	59	5	3.21	6	0	2	0	8	0	0	0	202.00	18.00	0.00	-24.00	29.50	-8.00	-59.00	0.00	-15.00	32.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	9	49	280.50	288.29	Carpenter, Matt			STL	2B/3B	103		395	67	112	37	56	78	0.284	6	3	82	23	1	1	1	24.00	37.00	6.00	67.00	56.00	82.00	46.00	3.00	-39.00	-1.00	-0.50
	23	126	188.00	187.78	Cobb, Alex			TB	SP	15																											88.7	81	39	37	26	80	9	3.76	6	0	6	0	8	0	0	0	266.00	18.00	0.00	-37.00	40.00	-24.00	-81.00	0.00	-26.00	32.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
			280.50	288.29	Hitter Give Players					103		395	67	112	37	56	78	0.284	6	3	82	23	1	1	1	24.00	37.00	6.00	67.00	56.00	82.00	46.00	3.00	-39.00	-1.00	-0.50
			188.00	187.78	Pitcher Give Players					15																											88.7	81	39	37	26	80	9	3.76	6	0	6	0	8	0	0	0	266.00	18.00	0.00	-37.00	40.00	-24.00	-81.00	0.00	-26.00	32.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
			38.00	19.25	Hitter Gains					-1		+5	+5	-20	+10	-4	+10	-0.054	+13	+13	-27	-5	-1	+4	+4	52.00	10.00	26.00	5.00	-4.00	-27.00	-10.00	-3.00	-5.00	-4.00	-2.00
			-12.50	-12.50	Pitcher Gains					0																											-21.3	22	13	13	11	-21	4	+0.55	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	-64.00	0.00	0.00	13.00	-10.50	16.00	22.00	0.00	11.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Mvand  7/28/2014 11:25 AM

Just as a side note, I already have Javier Baez and Corey Seager as possible minor league keepers. I would really prefer to get a player that will stick at SS, hence the interest in Lindor, but it's important to note that I'm not lacking talent in the minors.

mbuser   7/28/2014 1:00 PM

Lindor is the real deal, so I wouldn't be caring so much about the drop-off elsewhere, provided you are okay with waiting a few years for his production. Dozier is +70 in combined points for HR/SB, so he can come down a good bit and still be at Carpenter's level. For me, this is a lateral move in terms of immediate impact, and a no-brainer with all the other considerations.

Mvand  7/28/2014 1:24 PM

Thanks. I'm definitely trying to compete for the title next year, so I'm trying to weigh keeping Cobb/Carpenter/Baez or Stroman/Dozier/Lindor for the short and long terms to pair with Donaldson/Polanco/Taveras. I really like that Lindor will play SS. Baez will be at 2B and I have long term solutions there either way, so he'd have to be a utility player and a great one, at that. 

I could always keep Baez over Taveras if the rest of the season plays out in Baez's favor. 

Anyway, your reasoning makes sense. Sorry for rambling but I need to type these things out to gain clarity.

mbuser   7/28/2014 1:31 PM

Do you only have one minor league slot? I would think Baez's trade value in your league would be pretty significant? It should be.

Mvand  7/28/2014 1:34 PM

Yes, only one spot. His value is pretty high but the problem is I'm maxed out on draft pick acquisitions (we put a cap on it to prevent total chaos). 

I could try to pair him with a keeper and upgrade at a position, but it's unlikely a contender will want to downgrade at this point. The teams out of the race, like me, have already sold the players they're not keeping.

It's a tough situation to be in and the trade deadline is unfortunately at midnight tonight, so I'm torn.

mbuser   7/28/2014 1:43 PM

I love the idea of acquiring the Stroman/Lindor combo, and you've made an argument (positional) for moving from Baez to Lindor. With only 12 minors slots total, it's not such a titanic loss to throw someone like Baez back into the fray. I don't think you are sacrificing current production with the exchange, either.