Projections

gehrenberg   9/4/2014 2:47 PM

In tonight's Blue Jays/Rays game, The Rays pitchers are projected to give up 3.7 earned runs combined and the Blue Jays hitters are projected to score 5.2 runs combined (According to the daily projections). How is there such a big disparity between these numbers?

ken_admin  9/4/2014 3:05 PM

We do project the bench players to play about the same amount (even though only a few will play) so the total projected runs will always be a little high since that never happens. In this case, the TOR starters are projected at 4.3 runs and the TB starter and a handful of relievers are projected to allow 3.2 ER. It's a difference around 1, and we aren't considering unearned runs. I would expect the average unearned runs in a game to be around 0.4 so that leaves about 0.7 difference.

gehrenberg   9/4/2014 4:18 PM

Do you think the hitter projections or the pitcher projections are more in line with actual game outcomes?

ken_admin  9/4/2014 5:17 PM

In this case, and most, the total hitter stats are over projected.