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sautah 3/7/2015 4:42 PM

I need a little help understanding how the value of a player is calculated. Sorry if this is a newbie question, but I can't make sense of things.

Own	Rank	TRank	Value	PosV	$	Name	Team	g	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	BAV	RV	HRV	RBIV	SBV
	62	32	-0.02	3B 0.70	$11	2015 Projection	CIN	154	625	89	161	78	51	140	0.257	27	19	-1.41	0.22	0.85	-0.14	0.38
Own	Rank	TRank	Value	PosV	$	Name	Team	g	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	BAV	RV	HRV	RBIV	SBV
	8	5	1.08	3B 2.02	$36	MLB 2014	CIN	157	597	88	162	80	52	139	0.271	29	20	0.02	1.44	2.00	1.06	0.88

I'm looking at his stats from last yearr compared to this year's projections. The projections are VERY slightly worse across the board but it seems to me that the values of those projections is treated differently this year. For example, 2 less RBIs moves his RBIV from 1.06 to (0.14)? I'm sure the numbers are correct, I just can't seem to make sense of the significant decrease in value. The example of the RBIV is also true for RV, and SBV.

I would REALLY appreciate it if someone could explain to me what I'm missing.

Thanks in advace.

Dave

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ken_admin 3/7/2015 5:41 PM

We do expect the overall projections to be higher than last season since we're assuming players are healthy. This leads to more projected PA/Runs/RBI for most teams which raises the averages when we calculate our z-scores. It does look a little extreme in Frazier's case since his only projected drop is in avg so I'll take a closer look.

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tremajj 3/8/2015 7:18 AM

It seems like the same item happening with Longoria...he's losing tremendous value on RBI and R compared to similar results in previous seasons. Is this right? I believe in bmonster's methodology but was surprised to see him ranked as the #13 3B...have a hard time believing he shouldn't be drafted as a 3B in a standard 5x5 12 team league. Is that right?

Own	Rank	TRank	Value	PosV	Name	Team	g	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
	131	78	-0.05	3B -0.14	2015 Projection	TB	159	630	81	159	84	58	145	0.252	27	5	1.00	0.59	-0.62	0.09	-1.32
Own	Rank	TRank	Value	PosV	Name	Team	g	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
	80	55	0.22	3B 0.76	MLB 2014	TB	162	624	83	158	91	57	133	0.253	22	5	0.71	1.19	-0.54	0.81	-1.08
	52	34	0.41	3B 0.56	MLB 2013	TB	159	609	89	162	86	69	160	0.266	31	1	1.51	0.80	-0.87	1.08	-0.48
	396	160	-0.79	3B -1.19	MLB 2012	TB	74	273	39	79	55	33	61	0.289	17	2	-0.23	-0.81	-0.91	-2.21	0.22
	73	49	0.17	3B 0.59	MLB 2011	TB	133	483	78	118	99	80	93	0.244	31	3	1.31	1.24	-0.81	0.25	-1.11
	22	16	0.77	3B 1.45	MLB 2010	TB	151	574	96	169	104	72	124	0.294	22	15	0.39	1.40	0.21	1.16	0.72

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ken_admin 3/8/2015 9:27 AM

I have adjusted Longoria since his average was likely low. Unfortunately for him, he's now batting 4th rather than 3rd, and the rest of his team is not very good.

Frazier has been adjusted too since his average was a little low.

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Todd Frazier projections