I'm a big fan of SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA), as a metric that isolates luck from underlying skill. I use it as an indicator for whether I expect performance to repeat for any given pitcher, and check more into the ones who surprised me (read: not a draft ranking). It's not perfect, and next year I may have a new favorite metric that incorporates defense historical and projected, etc., but this is what I've got for now. Sharing here. I can't figure out how to paste a table from Excel here or I'd include a greater set of data for each pitcher; just SIERA below. Note that only qualified starters are shown below, so pitchers like Jose Fernandez (2.20 SIERA) with insufficient IP are not included. Name SIERA
Clayton Kershaw 2.09
Felix Hernandez 2.5
Chris Sale 2.56
Corey Kluber 2.61
Stephen Strasburg 2.64
David Price 2.72
Zack Greinke 2.87
Hisashi Iwakuma 2.94
Max Scherzer 2.98
Madison Bumgarner 2.98
Brandon McCarthy 3
Jeff Samardzija 3.06
Jon Lester 3.09
Dallas Keuchel 3.11
Jordan Zimmermann 3.15
Johnny Cueto 3.15
Alex Wood 3.16
Phil Hughes 3.17
Garrett Richards 3.2
Tyson Ross 3.21
Alex Cobb 3.26
Cole Hamels 3.29
Ian Kennedy 3.47
Jose Quintana 3.5
Jason Hammel 3.5
Mike Leake 3.51
Adam Wainwright 3.52
Zack Wheeler 3.54
Sonny Gray 3.56
James Shields 3.59
Drew Hutchison 3.59
Scott Kazmir 3.61
Francisco Liriano 3.61
Ervin Santana 3.63
Hiroki Kuroda 3.64
John Lackey 3.64
Tim Hudson 3.66
Jake Odorizzi 3.66
Wade Miley 3.67
Julio Teheran 3.68
Henderson Alvarez 3.7
Wily Peralta 3.73
Dan Haren 3.74
Bartolo Colon 3.75
Jon Niese 3.78
Yovani Gallardo 3.78
Chris Archer 3.8
Lance Lynn 3.84
Wei-Yin Chen 3.85
Bud Norris 3.86
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