Kershaw vs. Utley

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avatarRapierman   4/10/2013 5:39 PM

Just got offered and interesting trade, given my over-abundance of pitching and outfielders and lack of everything else.  This concerns a standard Yahoo public roto league.  Here's my team:

 

12 Teams | 11 Hitters Per Team $150 Per Team [5 Active = HR RBI SB R BA] | 7 Pitchers Per Team $50 Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

  Own Round Rank Value PosV ValueC Name Injury Team Pos g News AB R H RBI BB K BA HR SB HRV RBIV SBV RV BAV
    2 13 0.78 0.00   Butler, Billy   KC   159   614 91 190 111 56 105 0.310 26 2 0.66 1.79 -1.02 0.71 1.78
    2 19 0.55 0.00   Rios, Alex   CHW   156   627 82 180 103 30 93 0.287 24 23 0.38 1.36 0.66 0.05 0.27
    2 23 0.53 0.00   Gordon, Alex   KC   156   635 104 191 78 73 138 0.300 19 14 -0.21 0.08 -0.04 1.66 1.16
    3 35 0.21 0.00   Werth, Jayson   WAS   151   581 99 160 72 82 141 0.275 24 16 0.38 -0.26 0.10 1.32 -0.49
    4 45 0.11 0.00   Hunter, Torii   DET   143   593 97 170 74 47 134 0.286 19 9 -0.18 -0.14 -0.50 1.16 0.20
    5 56 -0.01 0.00   Morse, Michael   SEA   139   525 69 155 89 29 122 0.295 27 1 0.68 0.62 -1.14 -0.87 0.68
    7 75 -0.21 0.00   Rutledge, Josh   COL   138   589 81 165 73 25 123 0.280 16 13 -0.45 -0.23 -0.16 -0.01 -0.18
    7 77 -0.22 0.00   Jay, Jon   STL   146   610 84 180 57 43 100 0.295 7 20 -1.47 -1.03 0.42 0.18 0.79
    9 98 -0.40 0.00   Alvarez, Pedro   PIT   149   541 75 137 84 59 180 0.254 29 1 0.97 0.35 -1.14 -0.49 -1.67
    9 102 -0.42 0.00   Moss, Brandon   OAK   138   514 70 136 81 45 145 0.265 25 3 0.47 0.21 -0.97 -0.82 -0.98
    12 133 -0.66 0.00   Scutaro, Marco   SF   138   568 76 164 54 40 46 0.288 8 7 -1.44 -1.19 -0.65 -0.35 0.31
    12 144 -0.74 0.00   Doumit, Ryan   MIN   138   504 61 139 71 32 97 0.275 18 0 -0.25 -0.33 -1.18 -1.51 -0.43
  Own Round Rank Value PosV ValueC Name Injury Team Pos g News AB R H RBI BB K BA HR SB HRV RBIV SBV RV BAV
          -0.48 0.00 0.00 Avg Stats/Total Values       1751   6,901 989 1,966 947 560 1,424 0.285 243 109 -0.46 1.24 -5.61 1.01 1.43
          0.16 0.00 0.00 Avg Stats/Total Values (active)       1467   5,777 835 1,650 809 472 1,179 0.286 210 86 0.54 2.06 -5.07 1.65 1.63
  Own Round Rank Value PosV ValueC Name Injury Team Pos g News IP H RA ER BB SO HR ERA W SV WHIP WV SVV ERAV WHIPV SOV
    1 1 1.54 0.00   Kershaw, Clayton   LAD   32   229.3 194 74 68 59 237 14 2.68 17 0 1.10 1.25 -0.63 3.06 2.38 1.64
    1 4 0.98 0.00   Lee, Cliff   PHI   31   217.3 202 82 75 36 210 23 3.13 14 0 1.09 0.73 -0.63 1.18 2.43 1.17
    1 5 0.97 0.00   Kimbrel, Craig   ATL   69   69.4 43 11 10 19 120 4 1.35 4 42 0.90 -1.45 2.05 2.57 2.09 -0.41
    1 8 0.67 0.00   Gonzalez, Gio   WAS   32   206.7 178 75 69 69 204 13 3.00 16 0 1.20 1.03 -0.63 1.57 0.33 1.07
    2 20 0.24 0.00   Fister, Doug   DET   32   213.2 207 89 82 45 163 19 3.46 16 0 1.18 1.03 -0.63 -0.12 0.60 0.35
    2 21 0.19 0.00   Romo, Sergio   SF   60   58.8 47 16 15 11 71 4 2.29 4 29 1.00 -1.43 1.25 1.19 1.21 -1.28
    3 26 0.14 0.00   Shields, James   KC   32   222.9 212 96 89 57 206 25 3.58 14 0 1.21 0.64 -0.63 -0.57 0.15 1.09
    3 31 0.00 0.00   Hernandez, David   ARI   69   69.0 54 21 19 20 90 5 2.46 6 6 1.07 -0.91 -0.25 1.19 0.93 -0.94
    3 33 -0.05 0.00   Uehara, Koji   BOS   58   58.3 49 17 16 5 73 7 2.47 6 2 0.94 -1.03 -0.50 1.00 1.54 -1.23
    4 41 -0.12 0.00   Robertson, David   NYY   69   65.3 48 19 18 27 89 4 2.45 6 6 1.15 -0.92 -0.26 1.13 0.41 -0.96
    6 62 -0.31 0.00   Fiers, Mike   MIL   27   165.9 157 75 69 52 162 20 3.75 13 0 1.26 0.41 -0.63 -0.95 -0.71 0.33
  Own Round Rank Value PosV ValueC Name Injury Team Pos g News IP H RA ER BB SO HR ERA W SV WHIP WV SVV ERAV WHIPV SOV
          4.25 0.00 0.00 Avg Stats/Total Values       512   1,576.1 1,392 577 531 400 1,625 138 3.03 114 85 1.14 -0.65 -1.51 11.25 11.33 0.81
          2.77 0.00 0.00 Avg Stats/Total Values (active)       421   967.7 833 338 311 244 1,062 85 2.89 69 85 1.11 -3.33 0.38 9.26 9.07 -1.51

 

The offer is as follows:

He wants:  Clayton Kershaw  Current O-rank--11, current season rank--1

He offers:  Chase Utley  Current O-rank--114, current season rank--18

Checking the Yahoo rankings, this has the looks of a "sell high" tactic.  BSM seems to agree, showing the following:

 

Own Round Rank Value PosV Name Injury Status Team Pos g News AB R H RBI BB K BA HR SB HRV RBIV SBV RV BAV IP H RA ER BB SO HR ERA W SV WHIP WV SVV ERAV WHIPV SOV
    20 124 -0.55 0.00 Utley, Chase   PHI 2B 120   451 67 121 56 56 58 0.268 17 14 -0.30 -0.93 0.02 -0.76 -0.76                                
        -0.55 0.00 Hitter Get Players         120   451 67 121 56 56 58 0.268 17 14 -0.30 -0.93 0.02 -0.76 -0.76                                
                                                                                   
    1 1 1.57 0.00 Kershaw, Clayton     LAD SP 31                               219.4 186 71 65 56 227 13 2.68 16 0 1.10 1.32 -0.67 3.08 2.44 1.68
        1.57 0.00 Pitcher Give Players         31                               219.4 186 71 65 56 227 13 2.68 16 0 1.10 1.32 -0.67 3.08 2.44 1.68
                                                                                   
        2.13 0.00  Hitter Gains         89   +451 +67 +121 +56 0 +58 +0.268 +17 +14 1.95 3.13 1.21 5.11 -0.76                                
        -3.65 0.00  Pitcher Gains         209                               -219.4 186 71 65 56 -227 13 +2.68 -16 0 +1.10 -5.58 -0.67 -3.08 -2.44 -6.47

However, given my plight, this might be an acceptable risk.  His team shows a serious lack of pitching talent (roto scoring ranges from 4-6) and I'm holding all the cards, while he holds many of the cards in hitting, something that I lack.

So, the question:  Accept the trade, counter the offer or reject it outright?  Please explain your reasoning and be prepared for counter-arguments and cross-examination.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarmbuser   4/10/2013 6:04 PM

confused

You are trading away the #1 SP in all of baseball. You should expect just about any offensive player in the game to be in play. Reject this trade swiftly. It's not close to a consideration.


100% Agree (1 vote)
avatarRapierman   4/10/2013 7:53 PM

Fair enough.  Need an alternative, though.  Even if I'm ahead 11 1/2 points, that's not going to last very long if I don't have enough bat support.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarmbuser   4/10/2013 7:58 PM

With those top five SP, I'd argue you could drop Fiers and one of your MR and speculate on some bats. And it's a loooong season, you can get some stats from those stud SP before you really need to trade them away.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarRapierman   4/10/2013 9:24 PM

You might want to check the BSM projections.  According to that, there's nobody equal to Fiers available, much less above him.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarmbuser   4/10/2013 10:03 PM

Well, sure, if the wire is empty that's one thing.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarliam4  4/11/2013 8:56 AM

I agree that season is long, and 2B/SS guys will show up for you.  Personally I wouldn't trade Kershaw for just about anyone, but perhaps I'm in love, so I would suggest offering for Pedroia and seeing if he bites if you are strongly considering the Utley trade.  Pedroia owner should do it.


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarRapierman   4/11/2013 7:03 PM

Noting 3B/SS Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) going 5-2-4-0-.444.  Starting to impress managers and getting more playing time.  Notes say worthy of pickup in AL-only format.  Given my alternatives (see note I posted on him earlier), is he worthy of subbing for Fiers?


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarmbuser   4/11/2013 7:09 PM

Nope. Career .260/.308/.350 hitter in the minors, without speed. [stats]


0% Agree (0 votes)
avatarRapierman   4/11/2013 7:27 PM

Back to empty wires and being subject to ridiculous trades, then.  cry


0% Agree (0 votes)

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