Selling High on Jordan Zimmerman?

unbigote  5/23/2013 6:25 PM

There seems to be a consensus (amongst fantasy baseball bloggers at least) that Zimmerman is due for a correction at some point. I am curious about what folks on here think. Would you sell high on him? And if so, what return would you look for? This team is a 12 team keeper league (6 keepers), but I took him too high for him to equate into my team next year.

12 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [5 Active = HR RBI SB R BA] | 7 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
		1	6	1.00	0.00		Votto, Joey		CIN	1B	106		373	74	120	67	79	80	0.322	18	4	0.56	1.01	-0.69	1.74	2.36
		1	11	0.82	0.00		Beltre, Adrian		TEX	3B	104		398	59	119	83	25	47	0.300	23	1	1.48	2.23	-1.09	0.31	1.15
		2	13	0.76	0.00		Harper, Bryce		WAS	OF	109		415	67	116	67	48	93	0.280	23	12	1.48	1.07	0.27	1.06	-0.09
		2	17	0.66	0.00		Pedroia, Dustin		BOS	2B	103		396	66	121	64	44	45	0.306	11	14	-0.50	0.79	0.50	0.98	1.52
		4	38	0.27	0.00		Aoki, Norichika		MIL	OF	104		444	68	129	40	35	38	0.290	8	24	-0.97	-1.00	1.59	1.17	0.59
		4	47	0.18	0.00		Segura, Jean		MIL	SS	110		449	67	127	44	38	68	0.282	7	23	-1.17	-0.68	1.55	1.14	0.04
		5	56	0.07	0.00		Mauer, Joe		MIN	C/1B	104		398	66	126	46	57	66	0.315	6	3	-1.30	-0.59	-0.82	0.98	2.09
		6	62	0.05	0.00		Cuddyer, Michael		COL	1B/OF	103		373	52	105	62	35	72	0.281	16	7	0.35	0.67	-0.36	-0.39	-0.03
		6	67	-0.02	0.00		Carpenter, Matt		STL	1B/2B/3B/OF	107		444	75	128	43	52	87	0.288	10	2	-0.71	-0.79	-0.89	1.85	0.45
		7	74	-0.07	0.00		Werth, Jayson		WAS	OF	101		396	64	107	45	50	89	0.270	14	11	-0.02	-0.64	0.17	0.82	-0.71
		9	107	-0.39	0.00		LaRoche, Adam		WAS	1B	104		367	50	95	55	37	92	0.260	19	1	0.80	0.16	-1.09	-0.61	-1.23
		12	140	-0.68	0.00		Myers, Wil		TB	OF	95		340	45	88	47	33	93	0.259	14	4	-0.06	-0.48	-0.64	-1.02	-1.20
		15	170	-0.94	0.00		Dirks, Andy		DET	OF	77		280	34	80	42	19	48	0.286	7	3	-1.06	-0.90	-0.82	-2.09	0.20
	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
				1.70	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values				1327		5,074	786	1,461	705	552	919	0.288	175	109	-1.13	0.84	-2.32	5.93	5.16
				1.77	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				1225		4,677	722	1,354	660	502	830	0.289	161	98	-1.11	1.48	-2.50	5.12	5.87

	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV
		1	6	0.87	0.00		Kimbrel, Craig		ATL	RP	48		48.4	31	9	8	13	81	3	1.55	3	29	0.93	-1.45	1.95	2.35	2.00	-0.51
		1	7	0.72	0.00		Strasburg, Stephen		WAS	SP	22		136.9	120	52	48	40	152	14	3.13	11	0	1.16	0.84	-0.64	1.13	1.07	1.23
		1	12	0.45	0.00		Scherzer, Max		DET	SP	23		142.3	127	59	55	43	161	17	3.45	11	0	1.20	1.07	-0.64	0.02	0.33	1.46
		2	20	0.22	0.00		Zimmermann, Jordan		WAS	SP	22		134.7	128	55	50	31	108	11	3.37	10	0	1.19	0.74	-0.64	0.29	0.58	0.15
		2	24	0.16	0.00		Medlen, Kris		ATL	SP/RP	21		128.1	123	53	49	30	104	11	3.42	10	0	1.19	0.79	-0.64	0.11	0.49	0.05
		3	28	0.10	0.00		Lynn, Lance		STL	SP/RP	21		128.3	113	52	48	47	133	11	3.38	10	0	1.25	0.73	-0.64	0.26	-0.61	0.76
		3	34	-0.05	0.00		Rivera, Mariano		NYY	RP	41		41.3	37	14	13	9	39	3	2.85	2	24	1.11	-1.51	1.50	0.63	0.65	-1.53
		4	44	-0.14	0.00		Cobb, Alex		TB	SP	19		118.7	111	49	46	36	99	9	3.45	9	0	1.24	0.31	-0.64	0.00	-0.30	-0.07
		6	72	-0.34	0.00		Kennedy, Ian		ARI	SP	22		144.3	140	67	61	42	127	17	3.83	10	0	1.26	0.63	-0.64	-1.38	-0.92	0.61
		9	102	-0.45	0.00		Veras, Jose		HOU	RP	36		35.7	30	15	13	16	41	3	3.40	2	20	1.30	-1.58	1.19	0.05	-0.41	-1.49
		17	202	-0.83	0.00		Gausman, Kevin		BAL	SP	11		60.3	59	29	26	19	52	7	3.95	4	0	1.29	-0.91	-0.64	-0.76	-0.62	-1.23
		21	246	-0.95	0.00		Pineda, Michael		NYY	SP	11		65.9	65	33	31	22	62	10	4.20	4	0	1.32	-0.95	-0.64	-1.25	-0.96	-0.96
	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV
				-0.24	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values				297		1,184.9	1,085	487	448	348	1,158	117	3.41	87	73	1.21	-1.29	-1.16	1.46	1.29	-1.52
				-0.50	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				201		591.1	536	242	223	178	599	60	3.39	42	73	1.21	-3.44	2.06	0.92	0.73	-2.75

mbuser   5/23/2013 8:26 PM

Obviously his Bob Gibson-like 1.62 ERA, 0.87 WHIP won't last. But Zimmerman is a very good pitcher with a very good track record, so the vague "selling high" scenario shouldn't mean shipping him out for whatever is offered. What is working against Zimmerman, however, is his middling K/9, which means the ratios have to be abslutely stellar for him to keep elite status.

unbigote  5/23/2013 9:35 PM

I was too vague in my original query. I suppose I was curious if you/anyone thought it would be worth dangling him out there for a top 30 hitter. There are quite a few Nats fans in the league and a number of teams in need of pitching, so I was considering capitalizing on that. I like Zimmerman, and having seen him pitch a number of times I don't quite understand why he has such low strike out totals. His fastball velocity is great (not Strasburg great, but a mid-90s fastball ain't bad) and his other offerings have looked solid too.

unbigote  5/23/2013 10:56 PM

Just an update. I can get David Wright for Zimmerman and Veras. Should I go for it?

mbuser   5/24/2013 12:50 AM

He's always been more of a pitch-to-contact type, and so far this season his GB% is up and his HR/FB is down, which means killer ratios. Not much has changed about his pitch types, but everyone is hitting it into the dirt, at his fielders (49% GB, .235 BABIP). Look at his opponent numbers so far, they are ridiculous (from ESPN):

I'm a bit surprised that you need to include Veras. I'd certainly do the 1-for-1, maybe counter back with that first?

unbigote  5/24/2013 10:39 AM

Wow. Those stats are impressive... I ended up countering as you suggested, but recieved a better (though bigger) offer from another leaguemate. I'm not sure how I managed this -- my only explanation is that the guy is a huge nats fan and is in last place in the league -- but I was offered McCutchen/Weaver for Zimmerman/Kennedy/Veras/Aoki. I'm fond of Zim and Aoki, but I figured the offer was too good to pass up.

No one involved really has much value beyond this year, at least for me. Veras was a last rounder so he could conceivably be a cheap source of saves next year and Aoki was a middle of the draft guy, but neither factored into my six keepers as I saw it. I would have loved to have gone one-for-one with McCutchen and Zimmerman, but really didn't want to have the deal fall apart in negotiations. Of course, feel free to point out anything I might have overlooked in this deal (there is always the chance it will be vetoed).

mbuser   5/24/2013 10:54 AM

Love it. That's how you sell high.