2 Big Trades in a Keeper League (Opinions and Analysis requested)

unbigote  5/28/2013 1:01 PM

H2H 5x5 Keeper league (6 keepers with round value increase by 2 every year)

Trade 1:

Mauer (4)/M. Carpenter (25) for Machado (21)

mbuser already noted the pricetag on Machado will be high, so I will likely have to add a piece to get the above trade done; however, the other player has been receptive given he is rostering (and kept) Miguel Montero and has Headley as a last round keeper.

Trade 2:

Harper (18)/McCutchen (1) for Trout (18)/Posey(2)

As of now I sit atop the league, but there is a long way to go this season and well... I get half my joy from making trades. The second trade will be accepted if I offer it, but I wouldn't want to make it without pulling off the first. Thoughts/opinions/critiques are welcome and appreciated.

12 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [5 Active = HR RBI SB R BA] | 7 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
		1	7	1.03	0.00		Votto, Joey		CIN	1B	102		360	71	116	65	76	78	0.322	17	4	0.59	1.11	-0.68	1.75	2.36
		1	12	0.83	0.00		Harper, Bryce		WAS	OF	105		395	66	112	65	51	83	0.283	23	9	1.70	1.11	-0.10	1.29	0.15
		2	13	0.82	0.00		Beltre, Adrian		TEX	3B	99		380	56	114	79	24	45	0.300	22	1	1.49	2.22	-1.10	0.33	1.17
		2	14	0.79	0.00		McCutchen, Andrew		PIT	OF	107		398	61	118	59	48	76	0.296	18	15	0.78	0.62	0.75	0.80	0.97
		2	18	0.66	0.00		Pedroia, Dustin		BOS	2B	98		379	63	116	61	42	43	0.306	10	14	-0.50	0.78	0.53	0.97	1.52
		4	45	0.23	0.00		Segura, Jean		MIL	SS	106		434	65	122	43	37	66	0.282	6	22	-1.16	-0.60	1.64	1.16	0.09
		5	50	0.14	0.00		Mauer, Joe		MIN	C/1B	100		382	62	120	48	55	63	0.315	6	3	-1.30	-0.19	-0.81	0.90	2.08
		5	56	0.10	0.00		Cuddyer, Michael		COL	1B/OF	99		360	50	101	60	33	69	0.281	16	7	0.38	0.73	-0.34	-0.32	0.02
		6	61	0.01	0.00		Carpenter, Matt		STL	1B/2B/3B/OF	103		428	72	123	41	50	84	0.288	9	2	-0.70	-0.74	-0.89	1.89	0.50
		7	78	-0.11	0.00		Werth, Jayson		WAS	OF	98		386	60	104	43	43	77	0.270	14	9	0.03	-0.59	-0.04	0.70	-0.65
		9	100	-0.35	0.00		LaRoche, Adam		WAS	1B	100		354	47	92	54	36	89	0.260	18	1	0.83	0.27	-1.09	-0.58	-1.16
		11	125	-0.56	0.00		Myers, Wil		TB	OF	95		340	46	88	47	33	93	0.259	14	4	0.04	-0.33	-0.61	-0.76	-1.17
		16	186	-1.02	0.00		Franklin, Nick		SEA	SS	94		347	43	88	32	30	72	0.254	7	9	-1.06	-1.45	-0.05	-1.06	-1.47
	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
				2.56	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values				1307		4,944	761	1,415	699	558	937	0.286	181	99	1.13	2.93	-2.77	7.07	4.42
				3.23	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				1114		4,218	656	1,223	609	482	767	0.290	154	85	1.06	3.86	-2.12	7.14	6.24

	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV
		1	6	0.88	0.00		Kimbrel, Craig		ATL	RP	47		47.3	31	9	8	13	79	3	1.55	3	28	0.93	-1.56	2.15	2.38	2.02	-0.57
		1	7	0.74	0.00		Strasburg, Stephen		WAS	SP	21		132.1	115	50	46	38	147	13	3.13	10	0	1.16	0.79	-0.59	1.17	1.08	1.22
		1	9	0.55	0.00		Weaver, Jered		LAA	SP	22		153.5	145	62	57	34	130	14	3.34	11	0	1.17	0.94	-0.59	0.51	1.12	0.77
		1	11	0.46	0.00		Scherzer, Max		DET	SP	22		136.2	122	57	52	42	154	17	3.45	11	0	1.20	1.05	-0.59	0.07	0.35	1.42
		2	23	0.17	0.00		Medlen, Kris		ATL	SP/RP	21		123.6	118	51	47	29	100	11	3.42	10	0	1.19	0.76	-0.59	0.16	0.50	0.00
		3	28	0.11	0.00		Lynn, Lance		STL	SP/RP	20		123.9	110	50	46	45	128	11	3.38	10	0	1.25	0.69	-0.59	0.30	-0.59	0.73
		4	37	-0.06	0.00		Rivera, Mariano		NYY	RP	40		40.0	35	14	13	9	38	3	2.85	2	23	1.11	-1.63	1.66	0.65	0.65	-1.65
		4	45	-0.15	0.00		Cobb, Alex		TB	SP	18		114.5	107	48	44	34	95	9	3.45	8	0	1.24	0.23	-0.59	0.04	-0.28	-0.13
		10	109	-0.50	0.00		Pestano, Vinnie		CLE	RP	45		44.5	38	17	16	15	50	4	3.23	4	3	1.21	-1.26	-0.27	0.28	0.07	-1.33
		18	205	-0.86	0.00		Gausman, Kevin		BAL	SP	10		57.7	56	27	25	18	49	7	3.95	4	0	1.29	-1.02	-0.59	-0.73	-0.60	-1.35
		22	256	-1.00	0.00		Pineda, Michael		NYY	SP	8		51.2	50	26	24	17	48	7	4.20	3	0	1.32	-1.31	-0.59	-0.99	-0.76	-1.37
		23	272	-1.03	0.00		Wacha, Michael		STL	SP	9		53.6	54	27	24	18	39	6	4.11	4	0	1.34	-1.07	-0.59	-0.91	-0.96	-1.63
	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV
				-0.70	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values				284		1,078.1	983	438	403	313	1,057	104	3.36	79	55	1.20	-3.39	-1.76	2.93	2.61	-3.88
				-0.37	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				195		511.3	452	201	185	153	556	52	3.25	38	55	1.18	-4.70	1.18	2.91	2.62	-3.88

mbuser   5/28/2013 1:10 PM

I would do the first without question. The second, I'd stay put with Cutch/Harper.

unbigote  5/28/2013 1:31 PM

Even if it means I'd be picking up a catcher off the waiver wire? Also partial to Trout because he plays for my team.

mbuser   5/28/2013 1:42 PM

It's a keeper league, so the long-term benefits trump everything.

As for the second one, by all means pull the trigger if you really want it. It's close enough.

unbigote  5/28/2013 2:33 PM

At the risk of beating this topic to death, who do you think I can add to the first trade that would sweeten the pot (whilst not risking too much)? I'd like to get a deal done before the guy reconsiders parting with Machado. I'm holding Yelich, Myers and now Nick Franklin -- also have a guy like Medlen that might get the deal done (the rest of the roster is above). What do you think?

mbuser   5/28/2013 2:36 PM

The other manager hasn't indicated anything to that end?

unbigote  5/28/2013 3:17 PM

Eh, its gone from a 'sure lets do this' to 'okay let me look over the offer' situation. I don't want to bid against myself, however, I'd like to get something done before the other guy reconsiders trading Machado.

mbuser   5/28/2013 3:52 PM

It depends on who you are keeping. Try to throw in one of those prospects who you will be throwing back anyway.

unbigote  5/28/2013 4:38 PM

Keepers go up a two rounds from last year (25 rounds), my definites are: Strasburg (19) and Harper (18), I'll be hoping for lottery ticket and a few solid peformances from the rest of the squad... Segura (UD); Carpenter (UD); Cuddyer (17); Yelich (UD); W. Myers (22); Franlkin (UD); Cobb (16); Pineda (UD); Medlen (21); Gausman (UD) look to be the best value in the remaining spots.

 

unbigote  5/28/2013 4:41 PM

Which is to say I am hoping Myers and Yelich are the real deal. Which do you think is more likely to fulfill their potential? (Nearly an impossible question to ask at this point, but could help me decide how to sweeten the pot).

mbuser   5/28/2013 5:00 PM

Neither is really more likely than the other. I'd hang on to both and offer Franklin.

unbigote  5/31/2013 1:02 PM

Is it crazy to consider giving up McCutchen (rd 1)/Haper (rd 18) for Hamilton (rd 1)/Trout (rd 18)? I am a huge Trout fan (and as I said above I'm an Angels fan), but Hamilton has shown no signs of coming around. McCutchen and Hamilton are basically yearly rentals the way this league is structured.

The Machado trade seems to have hit the skids.

unbigote  5/31/2013 2:14 PM

Also might be able to get Trout if i offer Harper/Carpenter.

mbuser   5/31/2013 8:16 PM

Yes, you likely lose out on the first trade for this season. But fantasy sports are supposed to be fun, and trading for your favorite player is fun. If you want the guy, then trade for him.

unbigote  6/1/2013 1:20 AM

Fantasy sports are supposed to be fun. Having Trout is fun, but is it more fun than beating your friends for five years? I needed cold statistical analysis to clarify the situation. (All kidding aside, thanks for the advice.)

mbuser   6/1/2013 9:43 AM

Hah, yeah, the Trade Analyzer is the "no sentimentality" approach. And winning is a lot of fun, that's for sure