Is Braun worth the risk?

tomm0  7/16/2013 8:30 PM

12 team 6x6 Roto (QS and OPS) - Being offered Braun and Headley for Longoria and an OF of mine (thinking Heyward).  Could be a really nice deal if Braun is able to finish out the year.  His owner is pushing hard to get rid of him (for a good reason).  It's obviously a big risk trying to take him on though.  What do you guys think?

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	OPS	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV	OPSV
1	9	1.05	McCutchen, Andrew		PIT	OF	66		249	40	74	38	30	47	0.296	11	10	0.885	0.88	0.94	0.86	1.25	1.00	1.37
1	11	0.95	Goldschmidt, Paul		ARI	1B	60		227	38	68	39	30	51	0.298	11	6	0.901	0.91	1.09	0.18	0.99	1.03	1.51
2	21	0.73	Gordon, Alex		KC	OF	65		269	43	83	32	27	58	0.308	8	4	0.859	-0.09	0.13	-0.36	1.77	1.95	0.97
3	28	0.49	Longoria, Evan		TB	3B	60		221	33	63	40	26	49	0.285	12	1	0.883	1.07	1.22	-0.96	0.19	0.23	1.18
3	29	0.48	Ramirez, Hanley		LAD	SS/3B	61		242	36	69	34	22	46	0.285	10	8	0.834	0.62	0.34	0.63	0.58	0.25	0.45
3	30	0.47	Upton, Justin		ATL	OF	64		240	37	67	34	31	65	0.278	11	6	0.848	0.87	0.48	0.13	0.86	-0.20	0.68
4	40	0.30	Hill, Aaron		ARI	2B	59		224	29	65	39	18	30	0.289	9	5	0.839	0.23	1.12	0.03	-0.58	0.48	0.49
5	50	0.18	Heyward, Jason		ATL	OF	63		250	39	68	29	29	54	0.273	10	5	0.820	0.59	-0.23	-0.10	1.17	-0.54	0.22
5	60	-0.02	de Aza, Alejandro		CHW	OF	65		266	38	74	25	25	64	0.278	7	10	0.772	-0.43	-0.85	1.02	1.01	-0.22	-0.68
6	68	-0.09	Puig, Yasiel		LAD	OF	52		203	25	57	31	8	42	0.282	10	7	0.806	0.41	-0.04	0.25	-1.19	0.05	-0.03
8	93	-0.35	Castro, Starlin		CHC	SS	67		266	31	75	28	15	41	0.282	5	8	0.740	-0.86	-0.42	0.59	-0.19	0.07	-1.29
9	97	-0.39	Lucroy, Jonathan		MIL	C	50		185	24	53	30	11	26	0.285	8	2	0.806	-0.08	-0.22	-0.75	-1.44	0.19	-0.01
9	105	-0.44	Eaton, Adam		ARI	OF	56		234	35	66	18	25	39	0.280	3	11	0.751	-1.49	-1.80	1.21	0.43	-0.07	-0.94
13	155	-0.79	Aybar, Erick		LAA	SS	61		192	22	55	27	7	19	0.285	3	6	0.722	-1.55	-0.61	0.11	-1.75	0.20	-1.16
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	OPS	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV	OPSV
		2.76	Avg Stats/Total Values				850		3,270	471	935	443	305	632	0.286	118	89	0.820	1.08	1.14	2.83	3.08	4.42	4.00
		3.29	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				729		2,769	398	796	400	256	529	0.287	109	67	0.831	3.00	3.79	0.59	1.64	4.71	6.00

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	QS	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV	QSV
1	5	1.02	Scherzer, Max		DET	SP	13		90.8	78	34	31	27	104	9	3.10	7	0	1.16	9	1.15	-0.57	1.41	1.26	1.94	0.93
2	22	0.32	Hamels, Cole		PHI	SP	13		85.5	80	36	33	23	82	10	3.52	5	0	1.21	8	0.46	-0.57	0.05	0.34	0.94	0.68
4	43	-0.07	Kluber, Corey		CLE	SP	13		74.0	72	34	32	20	70	10	3.85	5	0	1.24	7	0.34	-0.57	-0.84	-0.19	0.41	0.44
5	52	-0.20	Colon, Bartolo		OAK	SP	11		66.4	70	30	28	8	40	7	3.75	4	0	1.17	6	-0.04	-0.57	-0.50	0.74	-0.94	0.12
5	60	-0.28	Holland, Greg		KC	RP	24		24.5	18	7	7	10	33	1	2.46	1	14	1.16	0	-1.70	1.67	0.94	0.34	-1.27	-1.67
6	72	-0.37	Nathan, Joe		TEX	RP	25		25.4	22	10	9	6	28	3	3.14	2	15	1.13	0	-1.64	1.71	0.36	0.49	-1.45	-1.67
7	81	-0.40	Hefner, Jeremy		NYM	SP	13		79.1	81	39	35	21	58	9	4.04	5	0	1.29	8	0.18	-0.57	-1.41	-0.96	-0.12	0.46
8	86	-0.43	Griffin, AJ		OAK	SP	11		67.5	69	33	31	16	53	9	4.08	5	0	1.26	6	-0.03	-0.57	-1.31	-0.43	-0.34	0.11
8	89	-0.43	Cobb, Alex		TB	SP	10		61.1	59	28	26	19	50	6	3.82	4	0	1.28	6	-0.21	-0.57	-0.62	-0.70	-0.51	0.01
8	93	-0.45	Perkins, Glen		MIN	RP	22		22.5	19	8	7	6	24	2	2.91	1	13	1.13	0	-1.75	1.46	0.50	0.44	-1.67	-1.67
9	102	-0.49	Nova, Ivan		NYY	SP	15		51.0	47	22	20	17	49	5	3.53	3	0	1.25	3	-0.82	-0.57	0.02	-0.26	-0.54	-0.74
13	153	-0.71	Straily, Dan		OAK	SP	7		40.8	39	19	18	14	37	5	3.90	3	0	1.31	4	-0.89	-0.57	-0.53	-0.69	-1.06	-0.51
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	QS	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV	QSV
		-2.49	Avg Stats/Total Values				179		688.6	655	301	277	187	627	75	3.61	46	42	1.22	59	-4.96	-0.31	-1.92	0.37	-4.60	-3.51
		-0.79	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				134		461.7	438	197	181	117	422	50	3.53	30	42	1.20	38	-3.38	1.98	0.04	2.21	-2.90	-2.71

mymaus  7/16/2013 9:44 PM

I read somewhere that the head of MLBPA was saying things that implied there is little chance their will be suspensions THIS year because of appeals etc. You'll have to Google it to be sure, but if that is what you're worried about RE:Braun, I think it may be a non issue. Health could still be an issue. To abuse a famous Star Trek quote - "I'm a fantasy baseball manager not a doctor" so you'll have to do more research on that one. I also can't comment on the other 3 player's real values. Obviously, all 4 players have issues.

fffu_zipper_kitty  7/16/2013 11:43 PM

You don't need hitting, you need a pitcher...

liam4  7/17/2013 8:10 AM

I'd do the trade, especially with Heyward. Agreed you may be short pitching though.  And know that it is high risk high reward - Braun could be a top 3 player, or he could be sidelined with recurring thumb issues, even if suspensions are delayed to next year.

Headley could be great for you at 3b if he regains form, but I'd turn around after the trade and see if you can upgrade.  Lots of OF depth

tomm0  7/17/2013 8:22 AM

This particular owner is looking to upgrade his hitting and has plenty of pitchers (Bum, Latos, Greinke, Moore, Corbin).  I could try to work a pitcher into the deal as well.  Another option would be Headley and a pitcher for Longoria.

mbuser   7/17/2013 11:58 AM

You are trying to move Longoria because of the plantar fasciitis? The Headley gamble could work out in an OPS league, the Braun gamble could work out if he regains form. Does it really need to be Longoria on the way out if this guy is clearly desperate to move Braun?

tomm0  7/17/2013 4:48 PM

It doesn't have to be Longo though him and Goldschmidt are the two names he keeps throwing out there.  Figured Headley could be a solid replacement for Longo on top of the Heyward to Braun upgrade.

mbuser   7/17/2013 5:58 PM

I certainly wouldn't be dealing Goldschmidt away. To your original question: he sure could be, particularly with suspensions unlikely to come down this season.