Draft Strategy

sonybomba  3/5/2014 11:16 AM

I am interested to know what kind of strategy to use when drafting?

I am in a 25 and a 26 player (12 team) leagues and I was wondering :

-What a good number of bench batters is good for the season?

-Using baseball monster draft tracker, I usually end up with a weak pitching since they are all ranked very low in the projections. Is there anything I can tweak during drafting to end up with a balance team?

-In baseball monster's projections there are tons of RPs who are of little to no use? We all know there there is a lack of closers in any league. What is a good number of closers/Hold to have on a team vs SPs?

ken_admin  3/5/2014 11:21 AM

What are your category settings? Typically, using standard 5x5 settings, pitchers tend to be pushed higher, but in you case, it seems to be the opposite issue.

sonybomba  3/5/2014 11:29 AM

One of my leagues is a 26 players 7x7 (1-C, 1-1B, 1-2B, 1-3B, 1-SS, 3-OF, 2-UTIL, 3-SP, 2-RP, 5-P, 6-BN) (R,H,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OBP and IP,W, L SV, K ERA, WHIP)

Other is a keepers league 25 players 7x7 (1-C, 1-1B, 1-2B, 1-3B, 1-SS, 3-OF, 2-UTIL, 3-SP, 2-RP, 3-P, 7-BN)  (R,H,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,TB and W, L SV, K ERA, WHIP, HLD))?

liam4  3/5/2014 12:32 PM

Just on the pitcher question -- i'd separate hitters and pitchers when drafting, z-score of a pitcher is only really comparable to z-score of another pitcher.  Put together a pre-draft ranking to accomplish this, and run a mock draft or two to make sure you feel good on your pitching.  There's different thoughts on whether pitching is as important as hitting... for me, I think I need a couple top pitchers to go for the title. 

Number of closers needed tends to depend on the league.  My usual league requires 5 closers to be competitive in saves.  But I draft them very late, and trade them freely, as I figure I'll find more as the season goes on.

Liam

tomm0  3/5/2014 12:53 PM

I have this debate every season and not to hijack but projections have Kershaw third overall in my 6x6 league with QS:

Own	Owner	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	Age	g	News	Date	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	OPS	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV	OPSV	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	QS	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV	QSV
		1	1	2.58	2.41	Cabrera, Miguel		DET	3B	30	156		3/4	575	107	188	123	85	93	0.327	40	3	1.002	2.78	3.56	-0.73	2.48	3.52	3.89
		1	2	2.43	2.27	Trout, Mike		LAA	OF	22	156		3/4	597	122	187	96	101	140	0.313	28	35	0.955	1.28	1.83	2.03	3.55	2.73	3.18
		1	3	1.83	1.46	Kershaw, Clayton		LAD	SP	26	33		3/4																	232.2	186	79	73	57	237	17	2.81	17	0	1.04	24	1.69	-0.51	3.23	3.35	2.02	1.22
		1	4	1.45	0.85	Goldschmidt, Paul		ARI	1B	26	154		3/4	572	96	166	92	85	138	0.291	31	14	0.913	1.64	1.60	0.24	1.72	1.21	2.29
		1	5	1.42	1.26	Gonzalez, Carlos		COL	OF	28	138		3/4	532	88	158	90	56	133	0.297	29	22	0.911	1.45	1.44	0.90	1.16	1.48	2.10
		1	6	1.41	1.24	McCutchen, Andrew		PIT	OF	27	159		3/4	591	92	178	90	77	113	0.301	24	22	0.891	0.75	1.45	0.90	1.48	1.90	1.97

There's a significant drop off there between Kershaw and Goldy/CarGo/Cutch though like Liam said it might be best to separate pitchers vs hitters because the comparison is apples to oranges.  This still makes it difficult to compare them though.  

I think the thought is overall pitching is much deeper, and with the ability to stream pitchers in most leagues it makes drafting hitters in the first few rounds more desirable.

ken_admin  3/5/2014 12:57 PM

@sonybomba - Yes, in your case, you will need to separate hitters and pitchers; otherwise, you'll end up grabbing too many pitchers early. In your case, you use Losses which pushes down pitcher values relative to hitters.

ken_admin  3/5/2014 12:58 PM

It is hard to separate them, and I would ADP to help guide when to actually draft positions. Even if your settings don't match one of the normal settings, leagues still tend to draft in a standard ADP order.

sonybomba  3/5/2014 12:58 PM

So other than maybe Kershaw, What is a good round to start considering pitchers? 11 onwards?

ken_admin  3/5/2014 1:01 PM

In your case, I would react to what other owners are doing. If pitchers start to go, you will not want to wait too long. Also, if you view the Projected Standings while you draft, you can see how you compare to other owners for pitchers. For me, if I'm not excited about the next hitters to draft, I look for the best available pitcher instead.

sonybomba  3/5/2014 4:11 PM

Would it help if I check the losses category off when drafting? 

ken_admin  3/5/2014 4:44 PM

I'm sure that'll make the hitters and pitchers look a little closer in the rankings, but I'd still want to treat them separately. How does it look when you make the adjustment?

Metsox  3/5/2014 8:46 PM

Hi KSLIGHT, 

Just a follow up on this. I face the same dilemma with Kershaw. I have the second pick and Trout is kept. I am planning on taking him because by the time I draft again Darvish, Lee, and Felix will be long gone and most of the best pitchers are already kept. In my format he rates out at 1.89 and the next best player available is Votto at 1.34. 

I do think Kershaw is a special talent and probably worth more than anyone else in the draft. And I have Bautista, Freeman, Rizzo, and Utley as keepers.  I am planning on taking him. 

That isn't crazy right? A lot of the guys in my league think I am nuts for taking a pitcher but it seems like a no brainer.....

liam4  3/5/2014 9:02 PM

I would def take Kershaw there, no question, with votto next best available.  Might even rank him third overall.

I took him 5th last year, no keepers, despite many saying no pitchers in first round, pitchers so deep, etc.  but look how far ahead his value is.  He killed it for me last season.

As an aside, my wife met Kershaw in January at an event.  No idea who he was.  Signs biggest annual contract ever, two days later

Metsox  3/6/2014 10:37 AM

Yeah, going to take Kershaw. Seems like a no brainer. I have Scherzer. The two of them should position me very well....

I guess I don't really understand the "don't take pitchers early" advice in a keeper league where a ton of pitchers are kept. Doesn't make sense to me. But every year that's the strategy most pursue. I know they blow up often but you can't win without good pitching.....

sonybomba  3/6/2014 11:21 AM

Kslight, when I check the losses column off in the league settings I get Kershaw, Darvish, Cliff Lee, Felix, Wainwright, Strasburg, sale, sherzer, price and hernandez all in the first 3 rounds. Which seems reasonable no?

ken_admin  3/6/2014 11:36 AM

Checking your account, the rankings do look more reasonable (compared to drafting order) now. The 2nd and 3rd round pitchers are probably a touch overrated now since they show up higher than their ADP. If you choose to stick with these settings, I would mark Losses as a Punt category under League Settings.  This will show a LeagueV column which will include that in the value while the Value column will exclude it.  This should allow you to see the pitcher's true value when actually making your pick.

Have you played with these settings in the past? If so, do you remember how early pitchers were drafted?