Thoughts on Punting HR and RBI's in roto?

mmassmedia  3/10/2014 12:20 AM

My 1st two drafts of the year and I ended up punting HR and RBI's scoring projected 1's in those categories. While scoring projected 10 to 12 in most to other categories. project scores in the 90's on both winning one buy 12 and the other having one team close and the others 12 or so points back.

It all started with me having trouble obtaining hr in most of my mock drafts.

Just wanting to get some thoughts on this strategy for roto. I have 3 more drafts this year. 2 h2h and 1 roto. Hope to use it in at least one of the H2H. Hopefully not using it in my last roto league both that all depends on the 1st couple rounds go. My rosters only have 3 players common so that was an interesting feat to pull of as well.

Please let me know your thoughts on this style.

liam4  3/10/2014 7:58 AM

I think punting in roto can be pretty tough.  In a competitive league, there's a decent chance someone will have strong scores across the board, and you'll really need to be all max in the categories you're pursuing.

silentjim   3/10/2014 12:03 PM

Let's the rosters.

As liam4 is mentioning not sure it's a great idea, but I could possible be convinced otherwise.

liam4  3/10/2014 12:30 PM

agreed -- if you're projecting a win in the standings, then maybe you really are crushing those other categories

mmassmedia  3/10/2014 12:36 PM

20 roto league yahoo. Projection put me a 93 second 91 third at 69

12 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [4 Active = RBI SB R BA, 1 Punted = HR] | 11 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
2	17	0.86	0.70	+0.16	Choo, Shin-Soo		TEX	OF	151		590	105	168	66	99	135	0.285	19	20	0.07	-0.18	0.58	2.29	0.73
2	15	0.81	0.75	+0.06	Votto, Joey		CIN	1B	154		526	94	160	77	115	122	0.305	23	6	0.51	0.49	-0.57	1.50	1.84
5	49	0.62	0.14	+0.47	Andrus, Elvis		TEX	SS	154		626	83	175	62	52	96	0.279	5	35	-1.75	-0.44	1.86	0.69	0.35
4	47	0.49	0.20	+0.29	Carpenter, Matt		STL	2B/3B	154		633	96	187	61	75	107	0.296	11	3	-0.95	-0.48	-0.80	1.68	1.57
6	72	0.22	-0.11	+0.33	Aoki, Norichika		KC	OF	141		586	82	169	49	52	45	0.289	7	20	-1.45	-1.26	0.57	0.59	0.99
5	59	0.00	0.06	-0.05	Seager, Kyle		SEA	3B	152		604	87	159	70	59	115	0.263	21	10	0.28	0.05	-0.26	0.98	-0.76
6	67	-0.01	-0.04	+0.03	Belt, Brandon		SF	1B	143		544	75	150	72	62	135	0.276	17	7	-0.17	0.18	-0.46	0.12	0.12
11	130	-0.12	-0.56	+0.45	Revere, Ben		PHI	OF	130		552	61	157	33	30	63	0.285	0	38	-2.34	-2.29	2.11	-0.97	0.68
11	122	-0.22	-0.50	+0.29	Span, Denard		WAS	OF	139		587	81	160	42	48	76	0.272	5	18	-1.65	-1.67	0.43	0.52	-0.14
9	107	-0.30	-0.41	+0.11	Markakis, Nick		BAL	OF	146		555	80	154	53	51	65	0.278	12	2	-0.87	-0.99	-0.91	0.45	0.25
9	100	-0.31	-0.36	+0.06	Machado, Manny		BAL	3B	134		548	75	149	60	31	97	0.271	14	6	-0.58	-0.57	-0.57	0.10	-0.19
12	136	-0.40	-0.62	+0.21	Gardner, Brett		NYY	OF	149		477	52	129	51	51	103	0.270	7	29	-1.48	-1.16	1.36	-1.59	-0.22
9	102	-0.53	-0.37	-0.17	Swisher, Nick		CLE	1B/OF	144		554	87	138	60	80	138	0.249	21	1	0.30	-0.58	-0.93	0.96	-1.58
12	140	-0.72	-0.65	-0.07	Castro, Jason		HOU	C	122		457	62	120	62	53	125	0.262	16	1	-0.37	-0.42	-0.95	-0.87	-0.63
Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
		0.40	-1.77	+2.17	Avg Stats/Total Values				2013		7,839	1,120	2,175	820	859	1,419	0.277	177	196	-10.44	-9.33	1.46	6.44	3.03
		1.57	0.08	+1.49	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				1454		5,592	812	1,566	631	650	1,078	0.280	139	137	-5.88	-3.79	0.76	5.49	3.81

mmassmedia  3/10/2014 12:39 PM

50 league on yahoo. Projections

1st Me - 93

2nd - 84

3rd - 77

12 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [3 Active = SB R BA, 2 Punted = HR RBI] | 11 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
1	2	2.54	2.13	+0.41	Trout, Mike		LAA	OF	156		590	117	185	99	100	138	0.313	28	35	1.15	1.88	1.84	3.17	2.61
2	19	1.54	0.62	+0.92	Reyes, Jose		TOR	SS	143		599	100	175	58	53	59	0.292	12	30	-0.80	-0.72	1.46	1.94	1.22
5	49	0.97	0.14	+0.82	Andrus, Elvis		TEX	SS	154		626	83	175	62	52	96	0.279	5	35	-1.75	-0.44	1.86	0.69	0.35
6	72	0.72	-0.11	+0.83	Aoki, Norichika		KC	OF	141		586	82	169	49	52	45	0.289	7	20	-1.45	-1.26	0.57	0.59	0.99
11	130	0.61	-0.56	+1.17	Revere, Ben		PHI	OF	130		552	61	157	33	30	63	0.285	0	38	-2.34	-2.29	2.11	-0.97	0.68
6	61	0.44	0.04	+0.40	Victorino, Shane		BOS	OF	130		560	77	154	58	39	81	0.276	15	24	-0.43	-0.68	0.95	0.24	0.12
11	122	0.27	-0.50	+0.77	Span, Denard		WAS	OF	139		587	81	160	42	48	76	0.272	5	18	-1.65	-1.67	0.43	0.52	-0.14
4	43	0.12	0.25	-0.13	Donaldson, Josh		OAK	3B	151		598	89	162	74	64	117	0.271	23	6	0.58	0.30	-0.53	1.09	-0.21
6	71	0.04	-0.10	+0.14	Hunter, Torii		DET	OF	138		577	79	162	66	30	114	0.281	15	4	-0.42	-0.21	-0.70	0.36	0.45
6	67	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	Belt, Brandon		SF	1B	143		544	75	150	72	62	135	0.276	17	7	-0.17	0.18	-0.46	0.12	0.12
15	169	-0.75	-0.87	+0.11	Profar, Jurickson		TEX	2B/SS/3B	146		453	59	115	50	45	87	0.255	12	11	-0.89	-1.18	-0.17	-1.11	-0.98
17	204	-1.27	-1.22	-0.05	Gomes, Yan		CLE	C	105		338	41	88	46	20	80	0.262	12	1	-0.84	-1.44	-0.93	-2.41	-0.46
Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
		5.13	-0.22	+5.36	Avg Stats/Total Values				1676		6,610	943	1,854	710	597	1,090	0.280	152	231	-9.00	-7.51	6.42	4.23	4.75
		4.26	0.84	+3.41	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				1407		5,471	801	1,537	635	519	952	0.281	146	175	-5.01	-3.55	3.88	4.69	4.21

mbuser   3/10/2014 3:36 PM

It can be very difficult to win a roto league while punting any categories, let alone two of 10. The less competitive the league, the harder it is to pull off. Pitcher Ws are going to be up for grabs and AVG can be volatile, so those are two categories with huge margin for error where you have zero margin for error. The one positive wrinkle in roto (vs h2h) is that you can trade from strength to address weakness down the line. For instance, if you have a massive lead in STL at mid-season, you can trade for help elsewhere.

mmassmedia  3/10/2014 5:40 PM

I can see the point on wins. I understand how that fluctuate. As you also have a ton more knowledge in this area. I would think a team full of hitters hitting for average it would be unlikely to see that team tank. I could understand a few of them doing so.  I do think average is more of a sure thing.

My problem is in 80 percent of the mocks I have done I can't seem to end up doing well in HR. Maybe it is just the players I am leaning towards and the fact I seem to worry more about ave. I will take advice on fixing that if anyone has it.

As well both of these leagues I am a projected favorite to finish in first by more than 20 points over 3 with second somewhere in the middle. With that projection I find it hard to believe to could be so far off. And if it is that far off I am not sure why I am paying for a site that isn't that accurate. Don't get me wrong there. I like using BBM for both basketball and baseball. I also understand projections can go south.

mbuser   3/10/2014 5:59 PM

Agreed on Ws relative to AVG, and I certainly have complete faith in our tools and projections. You'll notice that I didn't call it impossible to pull off but rather that your margin for error to dominate every non-punt category is very small. The strategy does allow you to take advantage of market inefficiencies, those being "avoid SP early" and HR as a glory stat. In any case, this will most certainly be an interesting exercise (like the punt 4 thread on the hoops side) - be sure to keep us updated you move along throughout the season.

mmassmedia  3/10/2014 6:29 PM

Will do.

Part of my strat as you can see in those 2 leagues is 2 tier one or two starters before the 5. Allowing me not to worry much about pitching to the end. As well i might draft more closers just to get whip lower than the rest. For my money I hope it works out. Either way I mocking and trying to switch up my stratagy. For some reason I fall in love with the AVG stat....and it hurts me ever time in hr.

silentjim   3/11/2014 9:59 AM

I'll mention that from my experience all projections tend to guesstimate low on HRs and Wins since there always seems to be a few guys who mash the ball out of nowhere (Chris Davis) and wins just don't equate to good pitching some times (see poor Cliff Lee, Sale, Darvish).

mmassmedia  3/11/2014 12:51 PM

All I can do for my 1st two league is hope this works now. As well I have my biggest money league this Saturday. Been mocking and it seems I might have figured out getting power in the lineup.