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avatarmmassmedia  3/10/2014 12:20 AM

My 1st two drafts of the year and I ended up punting HR and RBI's scoring projected 1's in those categories. While scoring projected 10 to 12 in most to other categories. project scores in the 90's on both winning one buy 12 and the other having one team close and the others 12 or so points back.

It all started with me having trouble obtaining hr in most of my mock drafts.

Just wanting to get some thoughts on this strategy for roto. I have 3 more drafts this year. 2 h2h and 1 roto. Hope to use it in at least one of the H2H. Hopefully not using it in my last roto league both that all depends on the 1st couple rounds go. My rosters only have 3 players common so that was an interesting feat to pull of as well.

Please let me know your thoughts on this style.


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avatarliam4  3/10/2014 7:58 AM

I think punting in roto can be pretty tough.  In a competitive league, there's a decent chance someone will have strong scores across the board, and you'll really need to be all max in the categories you're pursuing.

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avatarsilentjim   3/10/2014 12:03 PM

Let's the rosters.

As liam4 is mentioning not sure it's a great idea, but I could possible be convinced otherwise.

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avatarliam4  3/10/2014 12:30 PM

agreed -- if you're projecting a win in the standings, then maybe you really are crushing those other categories

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avatarmmassmedia  3/10/2014 12:36 PM

20 roto league yahoo. Projection put me a 93 second 91 third at 69


12 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [4 Active = RBI SB R BA, 1 Punted = HR] | 11 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

2170.860.70+0.16Choo, Shin-Soo TEXOF151 59010516866991350.28519200.07-0.180.582.290.73
2150.810.75+0.06Votto, Joey CIN1B154 52694160771151220.3052360.510.49-0.571.501.84
5490.620.14+0.47Andrus, Elvis TEXSS154 626831756252960.279535-1.75-0.441.860.690.35
4470.490.20+0.29Carpenter, Matt STL2B/3B154 6339618761751070.296113-0.95-0.48-0.801.681.57
6720.22-0.11+0.33Aoki, Norichika KCOF141 586821694952450.289720-1.45-1.260.570.590.99
5590.000.06 -0.05Seager, Kyle SEA3B152 6048715970591150.26321100.280.05-0.260.98-0.76
667-0.01-0.04+0.03Belt, Brandon SF1B143 5447515072621350.276177-0.170.18-0.460.120.12
11130-0.12-0.56+0.45Revere, Ben PHIOF130 552611573330630.285038-2.34-2.292.11-0.970.68
11122-0.22-0.50+0.29Span, Denard WASOF139 587811604248760.272518-1.65-1.670.430.52-0.14
9107-0.30-0.41+0.11Markakis, Nick BALOF146 555801545351650.278122-0.87-0.99-0.910.450.25
9100-0.31-0.36+0.06Machado, MannyBAL3B134 548751496031970.271146-0.58-0.57-0.570.10-0.19
12136-0.40-0.62+0.21Gardner, Brett NYYOF149 4775212951511030.270729-1.48-1.161.36-1.59-0.22
9102-0.53-0.37 -0.17Swisher, Nick CLE1B/OF144 5548713860801380.2492110.30-0.58-0.930.96-1.58
12140-0.72-0.65 -0.07Castro, Jason HOUC122 4576212062531250.262161-0.37-0.42-0.95-0.87-0.63
  0.40-1.77+2.17Avg Stats/Total Values   2013 7,8391,1202,1758208591,4190.277177196-10.44-9.331.466.443.03
  1.570.08+1.49Avg Stats/Total Values (active)   1454 5,5928121,5666316501,0780.280139137-5.88-3.790.765.493.81
112.002.00 0.00Kershaw, Clayton LADSP33 232.2186797357237172.811701.041.77-0.563.323.442.04
151.211.21 0.00Lee, Cliff PHISP31 218.1200837636207233.151401.080.84-0.561.772.541.45
2180.560.56 0.00Uehara, Koji BOSRP70 69.9532220138872.554340.94-1.372.021.341.68-0.88
3320.240.24 0.00Ryu, Hyun-Jin LADSP31 198.0186857855161183.551501.221.11-0.560.16-0.050.54
3350.180.18 0.00Perkins, Glen MINRP63 62.7482221167162.954321.03-1.521.890.741.02-1.21
3360.170.17 0.00Nathan, Joe DETRP69 66.6532624217263.214391.11-1.452.420.460.60-1.20
5520.060.06 0.00Burnett, A.J. PHISP29 179.2162767063175173.511201.260.39-0.560.29-0.650.83
5540.020.02 0.00Estrada, Marco MILSP27 161.2149736741150213.761101.180.31-0.56-0.490.510.34
661-0.04-0.04 0.00Wood, Alex ATLSP/RP24 154.5139656054142133.471101.250.28-0.560.36-0.460.19
  4.414.41 0.00Avg Stats/Total Values   376 1,342.31,1765304883551,3041273.27921061.140.382.977.948.642.09
  4.414.41 0.00Avg Stats/Total Values (active)   376 1,342.31,1765304883551,3041273.27921061.140.382.977.948.642.09

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avatarmmassmedia  3/10/2014 12:39 PM

50 league on yahoo. Projections

1st Me - 93

2nd - 84

3rd - 77

12 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [3 Active = SB R BA, 2 Punted = HR RBI] | 11 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

122.542.13+0.41Trout, Mike LAAOF156 590117185991001380.31328351.151.881.843.172.61
2191.540.62+0.92Reyes, Jose TORSS143 5991001755853590.2921230-0.80-0.721.461.941.22
5490.970.14+0.82Andrus, Elvis TEXSS154 626831756252960.279535-1.75-0.441.860.690.35
6720.72-0.11+0.83Aoki, Norichika KCOF141 586821694952450.289720-1.45-1.260.570.590.99
111300.61-0.56+1.17Revere, Ben PHIOF130 552611573330630.285038-2.34-2.292.11-0.970.68
6610.440.04+0.40Victorino, ShaneBOSOF130 560771545839810.2761524-0.43-0.680.950.240.12
111220.27-0.50+0.77Span, Denard WASOF139 587811604248760.272518-1.65-1.670.430.52-0.14
4430.120.25 -0.13Donaldson, Josh OAK3B151 5988916274641170.2712360.580.30-0.531.09-0.21
6710.04-0.10+0.14Hunter, Torii DETOF138 5777916266301140.281154-0.42-0.21-0.700.360.45
667-0.07-0.04 -0.03Belt, Brandon SF1B143 5447515072621350.276177-0.170.18-0.460.120.12
15169-0.75-0.87+0.11Profar, Jurickson TEX2B/SS/3B146 453591155045870.2551211-0.89-1.18-0.17-1.11-0.98
17204-1.27-1.22 -0.05Gomes, Yan CLEC105 33841884620800.262121-0.84-1.44-0.93-2.41-0.46
  5.13-0.22+5.36Avg Stats/Total Values   1676 6,6109431,8547105971,0900.280152231-9.00-7.516.424.234.75
  4.260.84+3.41Avg Stats/Total Values (active)   1407 5,4718011,5376355199520.281146175-5.01-3.553.884.694.21
131.231.23 0.00Hernandez, Felix SEASP33 227.6205847756225193.051501.141.25-0.562.281.381.80
141.211.21 0.00Wainwright, Adam STLSP32 220.5206817444198183.031601.131.47-0.562.301.561.28
1100.950.95 0.00Kimbrel, Craig ATLRP72 71.44416152311041.864430.93-1.482.672.271.75-0.44
4380.150.15 0.00Robertson, David NYYRP66 63.0492120207152.814311.09-1.421.780.900.69-1.20
4390.150.15 0.00Grilli, Jason PITRP62 59.4461918198162.664291.10-1.491.621.020.59-1.02
4440.090.09 0.00Papelbon, Jonathan PHIRP65 65.9572523167073.134341.11-1.482.000.560.59-1.23
5510.060.06 0.00Lynn, Lance STLSP31 188.7174817569180173.561401.291.05-0.560.13-1.240.93
5520.060.06 0.00Burnett, A.J. PHISP29 179.2162767063175173.511201.260.39-0.560.29-0.650.83
5540.020.02 0.00Estrada, Marco MILSP27 161.2149736741150213.761101.180.31-0.56-0.490.510.34
5560.010.01 0.00Haren, Dan LADSP29 164.7159777133135223.881301.170.73-0.56-0.840.680.05
670-0.12-0.12 0.00Griffin, AJ OAKSP31 191.8177938651158254.031201.190.57-0.56-1.510.420.48
  3.813.81 0.00Avg Stats/Total Values   477 1,593.41,4286465954351,5551593.361101371.17-
  3.803.80 0.00Avg Stats/Total Values (active)   448 1,428.71,2695695244021,4191373.30971371.17-0.834.717.745.621.75

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avatarmbuser   3/10/2014 3:36 PM

It can be very difficult to win a roto league while punting any categories, let alone two of 10. The less competitive the league, the harder it is to pull off. Pitcher Ws are going to be up for grabs and AVG can be volatile, so those are two categories with huge margin for error where you have zero margin for error. The one positive wrinkle in roto (vs h2h) is that you can trade from strength to address weakness down the line. For instance, if you have a massive lead in STL at mid-season, you can trade for help elsewhere.

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avatarmmassmedia  3/10/2014 5:40 PM

I can see the point on wins. I understand how that fluctuate. As you also have a ton more knowledge in this area. I would think a team full of hitters hitting for average it would be unlikely to see that team tank. I could understand a few of them doing so.  I do think average is more of a sure thing.

My problem is in 80 percent of the mocks I have done I can't seem to end up doing well in HR. Maybe it is just the players I am leaning towards and the fact I seem to worry more about ave. I will take advice on fixing that if anyone has it.

As well both of these leagues I am a projected favorite to finish in first by more than 20 points over 3 with second somewhere in the middle. With that projection I find it hard to believe to could be so far off. And if it is that far off I am not sure why I am paying for a site that isn't that accurate. Don't get me wrong there. I like using BBM for both basketball and baseball. I also understand projections can go south.

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avatarmbuser   3/10/2014 5:59 PM

Agreed on Ws relative to AVG, and I certainly have complete faith in our tools and projections. You'll notice that I didn't call it impossible to pull off big smile but rather that your margin for error to dominate every non-punt category is very small. The strategy does allow you to take advantage of market inefficiencies, those being "avoid SP early" and HR as a glory stat. In any case, this will most certainly be an interesting exercise (like the punt 4 thread on the hoops side) - be sure to keep us updated you move along throughout the season.

100% Agree (1 vote)
avatarmmassmedia  3/10/2014 6:29 PM

Will do.

Part of my strat as you can see in those 2 leagues is 2 tier one or two starters before the 5. Allowing me not to worry much about pitching to the end. As well i might draft more closers just to get whip lower than the rest. For my money I hope it works out. Either way I mocking and trying to switch up my stratagy. For some reason I fall in love with the AVG stat....and it hurts me ever time in hr.

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avatarsilentjim   3/11/2014 9:59 AM

I'll mention that from my experience all projections tend to guesstimate low on HRs and Wins since there always seems to be a few guys who mash the ball out of nowhere (Chris Davis) and wins just don't equate to good pitching some times (see poor Cliff Lee, Sale, Darvish).

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avatarmmassmedia  3/11/2014 12:51 PM

All I can do for my 1st two league is hope this works now. As well I have my biggest money league this Saturday. Been mocking and it seems I might have figured out getting power in the lineup.

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