thoughts on what cats to consider punting in h2h

mmassmedia  3/15/2014 12:31 AM

I have currently been drafting toward a punt steals and wins stratagy in my mock h2h drafts. Would like to know some opinions on that. Seems wins can swing a lot. Is the main reason there. Obv punting win kinda puts me behind the 8 ball on strike outs as well. As most of my drafts have went I am still going 6.5 to 7 win vs 3.5 to 3 losses. Seems to work. Would love thoughts on this as I draft tomorrow night and don't over look something if there is just big hole in my theory.

mbuser   3/15/2014 1:08 AM

What are you finding among your own results? Concentrate on SP with excellent ERA/WHIP/K and the Ws should take care of themselves. How do you tend to end up in R and AVG when punting STL?

silentjim   3/15/2014 8:30 AM

Considering I'm the guy in basketball who advocates for tanking 4 cats, I know it seems odd that I recommend the opposite in baseball, but I do. If you've looked at the stats over the years there's really only one consistency and that's that there will always be inconsistency. Someone will steal 15 fewer bases, hit 10 more homers, bat 50 points lower etc. I don't mind punting or getting a more refined strategy as the season progresses, but I think it makes sense to balance as much as possible without overpaying and moving on from there.

As Matt said you want to focus on the efficiency with pitchers (and the teams they play for) and the wins will take care of themselves.

Matt and I are in a league where we shifted to QS instead of wins mostly because good pitchers on crappy teams get undervalued and we were realizing that middle relievers (and closers) were accounting for an insane amount of total wins in the final stats. I can't remember the actual % anymore since it's been a few seasons now, but I think it was something like 15 of 75 wins were from relievers on the team who won wins for quite some time.

jjs5010  3/15/2014 10:23 AM

Mmass,

I used a punt steals strategy last year and won my league, 2nd place in finals. Some weeks I would even win steals just randomly as a bonus.

My league also had QS and not wins and punted holds in that league (thought it was too random and prone to blowups from relievers)

I signed up for Yahoo Pro leagues this year with W categories and I also used the punt steals and punt wins strategy.  This is how my first draft went (drafted 11th). I think I could still win Ws often.

Have another Yahoo Pro draft today and thinking same strategy as I am projected to win hitting and pitching vs. each opponent from my first draft.  Worst projected H2H matchup is 6 - 4, best 9 -1.

12 Teams | 10 Hitters Per Team [4 Active = HR RBI R BA, 1 Punted = SB] | 8 Pitchers Per Team [4 Active = SV ERA WHIP SO, 1 Punted = W]

mmassmedia  3/15/2014 2:09 PM

~~I am usually ended up projected to win 69-77 games against 11 teams. My goal is 77 as I figure that puts me 7-3 against most teams. My team usually consist of 5-6 closers and what is not a close is a top notch middle guy. In most draft I am taking one top 10 pitcher and depending on how the flow is going I am taking someone like Elvis or Altuve to give me a small spike in steal along with trying to steal a for stolen bases late in drafts. My overall draft I end up with 3-4 starting pitchers. Usually trying draft people that will keep my whip and era low and give me a spike in strikeout.

So far I like this strategy but just want to get Buser opinion along with a few others. Trying not to repeat a mistake I made with the punting hr and rbi theory in roto. Hoping that wasn't a mistake but only time will tell. Hoping there wasn't any holes in this theory for H2H leagues.

mmassmedia  3/15/2014 2:12 PM

JJ what time is that draft today. As well what money level are you playing at.

Just want to see if you can post those draft results here if it before my draft. And the money level to see what level off managers you are dealing with. Thanks

jjs5010  3/15/2014 2:35 PM

Today at 4...got the 11th pick again FML

First was Pro 50, this one is Pro 20

I can forward you the draft results from Yahoo drafts via e-mail if interested, will post my team analysis to this thread when completed

jjs5010  3/15/2014 5:08 PM

Punting steals and wins in Yahoo Pro

12 Teams | 10 Hitters Per Team [4 Active = BA R HR RBI, 1 Punted = SB] | 8 Pitchers Per Team [4 Active = ERA WHIP SV SO, 1 Punted = W]

Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	WHIP	W	SV	ERAV	WHIPV	WV	SVV	SOV
1	10	1.36	0.78	+0.58	Kimbrel, Craig		ATL	RP	72		71.1	43	16	15	23	110	4	1.86	0.93	4	43	2.18	1.64	-1.56	2.28	-0.67
4	42	0.31	-0.06	+0.37	Papelbon, Jonathan		PHI	RP	65		65.9	57	25	23	16	70	7	3.13	1.11	4	34	0.48	0.52	-1.55	1.69	-1.45
6	64	0.07	-0.25	+0.32	Parnell, Bobby		NYM	RP	64		64.4	57	24	23	20	59	4	3.15	1.18	4	30	0.45	0.10	-1.55	1.41	-1.67
2	22	0.04	0.18	-0.14	Cain, Matt		SF	SP	32		207.7	182	93	85	58	177	22	3.70	1.16	14	0	-0.66	0.79	0.74	-0.61	0.64
7	80	-0.12	-0.40	+0.28	Jones, Nate		CHW	RP	65		68.0	60	27	25	26	70	5	3.29	1.27	4	24	0.30	-0.38	-1.50	1.03	-1.44
3	30	-0.15	0.07	-0.22	Fister, Doug		WAS	SP	31		196.5	201	80	74	43	151	16	3.39	1.24	15	0	0.51	-0.62	0.95	-0.61	0.13
6	71	-0.51	-0.29	-0.22	Kennedy, Ian		SD	SP	32		201.3	189	93	86	65	181	23	3.84	1.26	13	0	-1.17	-1.02	0.58	-0.61	0.73
8	93	-0.55	-0.50	-0.06	Johnson, Josh		SD	SP	22		134.6	124	60	55	46	121	13	3.69	1.27	9	0	-0.41	-0.74	-0.27	-0.61	-0.44
Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	WHIP	W	SV	ERAV	WHIPV	WV	SVV	SOV
		0.45	-0.47	+0.92	Avg Stats/Total Values				384		1,009.6	914	419	385	296	938	95	3.44	1.20	67	130	1.69	0.30	-4.16	3.96	-4.15

12 Teams | 10 Hitters Per Team [4 Active = BA R HR RBI, 1 Punted = SB] | 8 Pitchers Per Team [4 Active = ERA WHIP SV SO, 1 Punted = W]

Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	WHIP	W	SV	ERAV	WHIPV	WV	SVV	SOV
1	10	1.36	0.78	+0.58	Kimbrel, Craig		ATL	RP	72		71.1	43	16	15	23	110	4	1.86	0.93	4	43	2.18	1.64	-1.56	2.28	-0.67
4	42	0.31	-0.06	+0.37	Papelbon, Jonathan		PHI	RP	65		65.9	57	25	23	16	70	7	3.13	1.11	4	34	0.48	0.52	-1.55	1.69	-1.45
6	64	0.07	-0.25	+0.32	Parnell, Bobby		NYM	RP	64		64.4	57	24	23	20	59	4	3.15	1.18	4	30	0.45	0.10	-1.55	1.41	-1.67
2	22	0.04	0.18	-0.14	Cain, Matt		SF	SP	32		207.7	182	93	85	58	177	22	3.70	1.16	14	0	-0.66	0.79	0.74	-0.61	0.64
7	80	-0.12	-0.40	+0.28	Jones, Nate		CHW	RP	65		68.0	60	27	25	26	70	5	3.29	1.27	4	24	0.30	-0.38	-1.50	1.03	-1.44
3	30	-0.15	0.07	-0.22	Fister, Doug		WAS	SP	31		196.5	201	80	74	43	151	16	3.39	1.24	15	0	0.51	-0.62	0.95	-0.61	0.13
6	71	-0.51	-0.29	-0.22	Kennedy, Ian		SD	SP	32		201.3	189	93	86	65	181	23	3.84	1.26	13	0	-1.17	-1.02	0.58	-0.61	0.73
8	93	-0.55	-0.50	-0.06	Johnson, Josh		SD	SP	22		134.6	124	60	55	46	121	13	3.69	1.27	9	0	-0.41	-0.74	-0.27	-0.61	-0.44
Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	WHIP	W	SV	ERAV	WHIPV	WV	SVV	SOV
		0.45	-0.47	+0.92	Avg Stats/Total Values				384		1,009.6	914	419	385	296	938	95	3.44	1.20	67	130	1.69	0.30	-4.16	3.96	-4.15

jjs5010  3/15/2014 5:16 PM

Projected standings with just starters and 0% bench...highest projected wins is So Cal Giants (#1 team) 97 vs my 67...thats about 1.4 more per week (22 weeks), which can easily be made up by streaming high quality matchups each week...also, with his low saves, will only need Kimbrel and maybe one other, and can sit my worst closers which will help my era and whip, and he can't stream saves, so even though 2 -3, can manage my team to beat him in pitching

Name	Total	BA #	R #	HR #	RBI #	SB #	ERA #	WHIP #	W #	SV #	SO #	BA	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	ERA	IP	WHIP	W	SV	SO	Win%	H2H
So Cal Giants	77	5	7	6	8	11	5	8	12	3	12	0.273	5,291	747	196	713	149	3.49	1,355.5	1.20	97	29	1,329	0.718	79-31-0 3-2-0 BA R HR RBI SB 2-3-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
James Sisson's Team	81	11	12	10	12	1	11	7	3	11	3	0.284	5,467	762	222	844	33	3.44	1,009.6	1.20	67	130	938	0.618	68-42-0
David's Swag Team	73	10	11	12	11	2	2	4	10	4	7	0.278	5,213	762	232	773	75	3.62	1,323.3	1.22	92	49	1,175	0.564	62-48-0 3-2-0 BA R HR RBI SB 3-2-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
Super Sloths	72	3	4	8	9	4	12	9	9	6	8	0.272	5,362	731	203	714	117	3.38	1,274.4	1.18	89	74	1,227	0.555	61-49-0 4-1-0 BA R HR RBI SB 1-4-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
UrGirlWantsUsTexiera	70	7	10	7	4	8	8	12	1	12	1	0.274	5,371	762	198	693	124	3.46	787.5	1.14	53	162	765	0.509	56-54-0 4-1-0 BA R HR RBI SB 3-2-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
mike vergilio's Team	64	6	8	5	6	6	9	5	5	9	5	0.274	5,395	750	192	700	120	3.45	1,167.6	1.22	82	99	1,085	0.491	54-56-0 4-1-0 BA R HR RBI SB 2-3-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
The Sandlot Kids	63	2	5	9	10	9	3	2	8	5	10	0.272	5,268	732	216	726	126	3.56	1,363.1	1.23	89	60	1,235	0.473	52-58-0 4-1-0 BA R HR RBI SB 3-2-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
Champaign Chuggers	64	4	9	4	5	12	4	3	11	1	11	0.273	5,383	756	189	700	155	3.55	1,351.5	1.23	93	0	1,277	0.473	52-58-0 4-1-0 BA R HR RBI SB 3-2-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
Thunder	61	12	3	1	3	10	7	11	2	10	2	0.285	5,610	709	140	665	130	3.47	871.2	1.17	58	122	838	0.427	47-63-0 3-2-0 BA R HR RBI SB 4-1-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
Paul's Primo Team	55	9	1	2	2	3	10	6	6	7	9	0.276	4,924	654	162	664	106	3.44	1,183.1	1.20	82	81	1,229	0.418	46-64-0 4-1-0 BA R HR RBI SB 2-3-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
Red Reporter	50	8	2	3	1	5	6	10	7	2	6	0.274	4,846	693	187	638	119	3.48	1,253.3	1.17	83	24	1,157	0.391	43-67-0 4-1-0 BA R HR RBI SB 2-3-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO
Crash Davis	50	1	6	11	7	7	1	1	4	8	4	0.267	5,317	740	227	702	123	3.73	1,102.6	1.23	72	90	954	0.364	40-70-0 3-2-0 BA R HR RBI SB 3-2-0 ERA WHIP W SV SO

mmassmedia  3/16/2014 12:34 AM

Thanks JJ for the info. Glad we didnt run into each other on the battle field.

Here is my draft. I actually just punted starters and drafted several multi-positional players hoping not to have many days without a full lineup.

12 Teams | 13 Hitters Per Team [5 Active = BA R HR RBI SB] | 10 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = ERA WHIP W SV SO]

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	WHIP	W	SV	ERAV	WHIPV	WV	SVV	SOV
1	10	0.90	Kimbrel, Craig		ATL	RP	72		71.1	43	16	15	23	110	4	1.86	0.93	4	43	2.23	1.75	-1.53	2.55	-0.53
2	17	0.52	Chapman, Aroldis		CIN	RP	67		65.7	41	18	17	28	107	5	2.30	1.06	4	39	1.53	0.91	-1.57	2.32	-0.58
3	34	0.14	Perkins, Glen		MIN	RP	63		62.7	48	22	21	16	71	6	2.95	1.03	4	32	0.72	1.02	-1.56	1.81	-1.30
5	51	0.01	Janssen, Casey		TOR	RP	67		66.7	55	26	24	16	62	6	3.25	1.07	4	31	0.40	0.85	-1.45	1.73	-1.49
6	66	-0.16	Parnell, Bobby		NYM	RP	64		64.4	57	24	23	20	59	4	3.15	1.18	4	30	0.51	0.15	-1.51	1.61	-1.54
7	79	-0.26	Melancon, Mark		PIT	RP	65		65.4	57	22	20	16	62	4	2.80	1.12	5	6	0.93	0.51	-1.17	-0.13	-1.47
8	93	-0.41	Smyly, Drew		DET	RP	27		153.1	146	71	65	49	139	18	3.84	1.28	11	0	-0.71	-0.92	0.11	-0.58	0.06
11	122	-0.51	Brothers, Rex		COL	RP	70		66.3	54	28	25	35	77	5	3.46	1.35	5	14	0.16	-0.83	-1.17	0.45	-1.18
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	WHIP	W	SV	ERAV	WHIPV	WV	SVV	SOV
		0.22	Avg Stats/Total Values				495		615.4	502	228	210	204	687	52	3.07	1.15	41	196	5.77	3.44	-9.85	9.78	-8.02
		0.90	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				402		396.8	298	135	124	139	485	31	2.82	1.10	25	190	5.54	3.85	-8.79	10.48	-6.61

silentjim   3/16/2014 7:22 AM

Can you post your draft results mmass? Not the whole leagues, just yours.

jjs5010  3/16/2014 9:29 AM

SilentJim

Here is my Pro 20 results

Here is my Pro 50 results

mmassmedia  3/16/2014 11:01 AM

-50-Pro-H2H- 

Elvis fell to me here and kind like one or two that can grab a few steals maybe steal a win here or there. As well appearently I like drafting Elvis since he has made in on my squad 4 out of 4 drafts. Overall don't feel like I missed many spots here. Miss the Brewers closer by one spot when I drafted Parnell but that wasn't to bad. Think I was a projected 75 win over 11 teams. Which is in the range I wanted to land.

Dominant Empire

1. (10) Adrián Béltre (Tex - 3B)
2. (15) Joey Votto (Cin - 1B)
3. (34) Buster Posey (SF - C,1B)
4. (39) Craig Kimbrel (Atl - RP)
5. (58) Aroldis Chapman (Cin - RP)
6. (63) Mark Trumbo (Ari - 1B,OF)
7. (82) Elvis Andrus (Tex - SS)
8. (87) Glen Perkins (Min - RP)
9. (106) José Abreu (CWS - 1B)
10. (111) Jedd Gyorko (SD - 2B,3B)
11. (130) Casey Janssen (Tor - RP)
12. (135) Kyle Seager (Sea - 3B)
13. (154) Bobby Parnell (NYM - RP)
14. (159) Brandon Belt (SF - 1B)
15. (178) Rex Brothers (Col - RP)
16. (183) Torii Hunter (Det - OF)
17. (202) Evan Gattis (Atl - C,OF)
18. (207) Chris Carter (Hou - 1B,OF)
19. (226) Will Venable (SD - OF)
20. (231) Mark Melancon (Pit - RP)
21. (250) Erick Aybar (LAA - SS)
22. (255) Adam Lind (Tor - 1B)
23. (274) Drew Smyly (Det - RP)

silentjim   3/17/2014 1:38 PM

I think Posey is the player who confused me. Seems like you both reached for him. Tough call on whether going for a good catcher early makes sense or just waiting to see who's left out of the decent bunch.

mmassmedia  3/17/2014 5:33 PM

Drafted Posey there for a few reasons. One I know my next pick is kimbrel. Two I tend to bump value for player who plays two position in H2H. He is projected at 40 ish so there is no way he is coming back, or at least he shouldn't. Three out of four drafts this year I have blown off catcher till round 19 or better, variety.

mmassmedia  3/21/2014 9:06 PM

20 Pro League H2H last draft of 5 pro leagues.

12 Teams | 13 Hitters Per Team [4 Active = BA R HR RBI, 1 Punted = SB] | 10 Pitchers Per Team [4 Active = ERA WHIP SV SO, 1 Punted = W]