Pedro Alvarez

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avatarcrucified77 (42 posts)  6/23/2013 9:40 PM

In my H2H points league I can't help but to want to add Pedro immediately based on his point output lately (basically 2x'ing Puig and outscoring M. Cabrera over the last 7 days).  I would have to drop Chase Headley who is ranked 176 for hitters this season (points/game), but Pedro is 97.  Based on projections, I seems that this would be a dumb move as Headley is ranked as a top 50 MI/CI while Pedro is top 120, however, I have a hard time trusting projections for the younger guys that can break out.  

Can anyone validate my move to drop Headley for Alverez based on the understanding that Headley is having a Prado-of-a-year and Pedro Alvarez may have broken out?  


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avatarcrucified77 (42 posts)  6/23/2013 9:42 PM

I suppose I'm open to other ideas, adding him and dropping someone else but as you can see my team, it's hard to do that... I wish I could trade but I'm not sure I can find a partner.  

 

 

(Points Per Stat)

  Own Round Rank Value PosV ValueC Name Injury Team Pos g News AB R H RBI BB K BA HR SB 2B 3B CS HBP HV HRV SBV BBV 2BV 3BV CSV ABV HBPV
    1 5 1144.30 0.00   Fielder, Prince    DET 1B 160   462 73 187 90 76 87 0.405 27 1 25 1 1 0 1047.20 253.80 1.90 228.00 72.50 5.70 -2.80 -462.00 0.00
    2 14 1028.80 0.00   Bautista, Jose    TOR OF 146   386 72 148 75 76 80 0.383 31 6 19 1 2 0 828.80 291.40 11.40 228.00 55.10 5.70 -5.60 -386.00 0.00
    3 18 1005.90 0.00   Gonzalez, Adrian    LAD 1B/OF 82   488 67 190 83 51 88 0.389 20 1 29 1 1 0 1064.00 188.00 1.90 153.00 84.10 5.70 -2.80 -488.00 0.00
    3 21 986.20 0.00   Gordon, Alex    KC OF 156   511 78 191 64 55 116 0.374 15 9 33 4 5 0 1069.60 141.00 17.10 165.00 95.70 22.80 -14.00 -511.00 0.00
    3 22 983.00 0.00   Holliday, Matt    STL OF 156   456 73 179 75 56 88 0.393 19 3 30 1 3 0 1002.40 178.60 5.70 168.00 87.00 5.70 -8.40 -456.00 0.00
    4 30 935.40 0.00   Jackson, Austin    DET OF 154   514 89 186 53 56 132 0.362 12 15 25 8 7 0 1041.60 112.80 28.50 168.00 72.50 45.60 -19.60 -514.00 0.00
    4 32 925.50 0.00   Granderson, Curtis  NYY OF 130   427 75 152 74 54 124 0.356 28 11 17 3 4 0 851.20 263.20 20.90 162.00 49.30 17.10 -11.20 -427.00 0.00
    5 37 910.30 0.00   Headley, Chase    SD 3B 136   463 66 168 68 60 114 0.363 17 12 26 1 4 0 940.80 159.80 22.80 180.00 75.40 5.70 -11.20 -463.00 0.00
    9 67 835.90 0.00   Rios, Alex    CHW OF 156   476 65 173 60 27 72 0.363 17 17 25 3 7 0 968.80 159.80 32.30 81.00 72.50 17.10 -19.60 -476.00 0.00
    15 120 699.60 0.00   Hardy, J.J.    BAL SS 165   463 59 151 58 28 70 0.326 18 0 21 1 1 0 845.60 169.20 0.00 84.00 60.90 5.70 -2.80 -463.00 0.00
    21 166 616.90 0.00   Brown, Domonic    PHI OF 146   355 43 121 44 37 72 0.341 12 5 19 3 4 0 677.60 112.80 9.50 111.00 55.10 17.10 -11.20 -355.00 0.00
    26 204 552.00 0.00   Carpenter, Matt    STL 1B/2B/3B/OF 124   290 41 109 36 34 61 0.376 6 2 19 3 1 0 610.40 56.40 3.80 102.00 55.10 17.10 -2.80 -290.00 0.00
    35 278 423.40 0.00   Rendon, Anthony    WAS 2B/3B 51   159 21 77 21 18 62 0.484 4 1 13 4 1 0 431.20 37.60 1.90 54.00 37.70 22.80 -2.80 -159.00 0.00
    39 310 377.30 0.00   Castro, Jason    HOU C 159   281 33 85 28 29 59 0.302 5 1 15 1 1 0 476.00 47.00 1.90 87.00 43.50 5.70 -2.80 -281.00 0.00
    46 368 298.70 0.00   Puig, Yasiel    LAD OF 41   130 13 61 15 9 46 0.469 4 4 8 1 5 0 341.60 37.60 7.60 27.00 23.20 5.70 -14.00 -130.00 0.00
  Own Round Rank Value PosV ValueC Name Injury Team Pos g News AB R H RBI BB K BA HR SB 2B 3B CS HBP HV HRV SBV BBV 2BV 3BV CSV ABV HBPV
          11723.20 0.00 0.00 Avg Stats/Total Values       1962   5,861 868 2,178 844 666 1,271 0.372 235 88 324 36 47 0 12196.80 2209.00 167.20 1998.00 939.60 205.20 -131.60 -5861.00 0.00
          11723.20 0.00 0.00 Avg Stats/Total Values (active)       1962   5,861 868 2,178 844 666 1,271 0.372 235 88 324 36 47 0 12196.80 2209.00 167.20 1998.00 939.60 205.20 -131.60 -5861.00 0.00
  Own Round Rank Value PosV ValueC Name Injury Team Pos g News IP H RA ER BB SO HR ERA SV HLD HBP IPV SVV SOV HLDV HRV HV BBV HBPV
    1 2 878.50 0.00   Kershaw, Clayton    LAD SP 28   183.0 143 54 54 52 193 15 2.66 0 0 0 915.00 0.00 386.00 0.00 -195.00 -71.50 -156.00 0.00
    1 4 810.50 0.00   Lee, Cliff    PHI SP 25   175.0 163 60 60 27 166 18 3.09 0 0 0 875.00 0.00 332.00 0.00 -234.00 -81.50 -81.00 0.00
    1 6 787.00 0.00   Shields, James    KC SP 28   186.0 172 74 74 48 167 19 3.58 0 0 0 930.00 0.00 334.00 0.00 -247.00 -86.00 -144.00 0.00
    2 12 706.50 0.00   Cain, Matt    SF SP 27   174.0 153 65 65 46 149 19 3.36 0 0 0 870.00 0.00 298.00 0.00 -247.00 -76.50 -138.00 0.00
    2 14 701.50 0.00   Gonzalez, Gio    WAS SP 27   161.0 131 59 59 65 163 13 3.30 0 0 0 805.00 0.00 326.00 0.00 -169.00 -65.50 -195.00 0.00
    3 17 666.50 0.00   Masterson, Justin    CLE SP 28   167.0 167 78 78 63 130 12 4.20 0 0 0 835.00 0.00 260.00 0.00 -156.00 -83.50 -189.00 0.00
    3 21 657.00 0.00   Lester, Jon    BOS SP 27   163.0 154 71 71 58 144 15 3.92 0 0 0 815.00 0.00 288.00 0.00 -195.00 -77.00 -174.00 0.00
    4 30 638.00 0.00   Wilson, C.J.    LAA SP 27   160.0 144 66 66 67 140 13 3.71 0 0 0 800.00 0.00 280.00 0.00 -169.00 -72.00 -201.00 0.00
    5 40 603.00 0.00   Lynn, Lance    STL SP/RP 26   139.0 128 59 59 53 137 11 3.82 0 0 0 695.00 0.00 274.00 0.00 -143.00 -64.00 -159.00 0.00
    6 41 595.00 0.00   Hudson, Tim    ATL SP 24   150.0 146 62 62 43 95 11 3.72 0 0 0 750.00 0.00 190.00 0.00 -143.00 -73.00 -129.00 0.00
    8 59 554.50 0.00   Liriano, Francisco    PIT SP/RP 24 6/23/2013 12:27 AM  Francisco Liriano shut down an Angels lineup Saturday that was hitting .326 and scoring an average of 5.7 runs over its last nine games. Liriano allowed only one run on six hits in 6.2 innings striking out six to bring his record to 6-3 on the season. 132.0 119 68 68 66 128 8 4.64 0 0 0 660.00 0.00 256.00 0.00 -104.00 -59.50 -198.00 0.00
    8 64 543.50 0.00   Corbin, Patrick    ARI SP/RP 24   135.0 137 59 59 36 107 13 3.93 0 0 0 675.00 0.00 214.00 0.00 -169.00 -68.50 -108.00 0.00
    9 65 538.50 0.00   Holland, Derek    TEX SP 25   150.0 143 71 71 47 124 19 4.26 0 0 0 750.00 0.00 248.00 0.00 -247.00 -71.50 -141.00 0.00
    11 88 481.50 0.00   Kendrick, Kyle    PHI SP/RP 26   136.0 137 61 61 39 91 15 4.04 0 0 0 680.00 0.00 182.00 0.00 -195.00 -68.50 -117.00 0.00
    13 102 460.50 0.00   Wood, Travis    CHC SP 26   138.0 131 66 66 48 107 18 4.30 0 0 0 690.00 0.00 214.00 0.00 -234.00 -65.50 -144.00 0.00
  Own Round Rank Value PosV ValueC Name Injury Team Pos g News IP H RA ER BB SO HR ERA SV HLD HBP IPV SVV SOV HLDV HRV HV BBV HBPV
          9622.00 0.00 0.00 Avg Stats/Total Values       392   2,349.0 2,168 973 973 758 2,041 219 3.73 0 0 0 11745.00 0.00 4082.00 0.00 -2847.00 -1084.00 -2274.00 0.00
          9622.00 0.00 0.00 Avg Stats/Total Values (active)       392   2,349.0 2,168 973 973 758 2,041 219 3.73 0 0 0 11745.00 0.00 4082.00 0.00 -2847.00 -1084.00 -2274.00 0.00

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avatarmbuser (772 posts)  6/24/2013 1:34 PM

Your league is not very quick to the wire if Alvarez is still sitting there. I did take a look at his projection and upgrade his HR tally a bit. He's hot now (.324/.398/.757 over his past 20 games) and warrants a roster spot while that is the case - his upside projects to prodigious power tied to ~.250 average. Points leagues tend to like run producers more than most other settings where lesser run totals or lower averages might otherwise be penalized - how does a guy like Rendon look without much in the way of counting stats? What about one of your 15(!) starting pitchers, any chance you move one out for someone as hot as Alvarez?


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avatarcrucified77 (42 posts)  6/24/2013 11:02 PM

Someone just nabbed him just before I got the courage to drop someone for him.  Now I'm convinced he's here, read this post, and undermined me while I am trying to play him this week H2H.  He dropped  Scutero for him so maybe I should move on that.  

Yes, my league is slow to the waiver wire but speeding up very quickly (I'm still surprised I nabbed Puig after sitting on him for a short time).   My league is based on SABR points (link) so it's not a normal points system and it doesn't count percentages, KO's and RBI's.  

Still, should I make a move to drop Headley I wonder.  I dropped Prado when he was (and still is) stinking it up and didn't regret it.  

Last 30 days Alvarez was: 7.84   

The last 30 days guys on my team (3B eligable) ranked in ROS projections:

1. Carpenter: 8.10

2. Headley: 2.41 (Prado: 2.76)

3. Rendon: 7.06

Other players (ordered based on ROS projections with their 30 day average): Reynolds 1.83 / Arenado  5.00 /  Scutero 6.34 WW / Alverez 7.84 GONE / Plouffe 5.98 / Prado 2.76

As far as my team breakdown, I have 13 hitters (so I have 1 on the bench already) with 8 active pitcher slots and 8 on the bench.  I like to maximize my  # of pitchers to get more points.  Batters on the bench don't do anything for me unless someone is injuried or not playing well (but I could play matchups).  Already I see the long ball hurting my pitcher scores big time when they rack up.  


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