Pedro Alvarez

crucified77  6/23/2013 9:40 PM

In my H2H points league I can't help but to want to add Pedro immediately based on his point output lately (basically 2x'ing Puig and outscoring M. Cabrera over the last 7 days).  I would have to drop Chase Headley who is ranked 176 for hitters this season (points/game), but Pedro is 97.  Based on projections, I seems that this would be a dumb move as Headley is ranked as a top 50 MI/CI while Pedro is top 120, however, I have a hard time trusting projections for the younger guys that can break out.  

Can anyone validate my move to drop Headley for Alverez based on the understanding that Headley is having a Prado-of-a-year and Pedro Alvarez may have broken out?  

crucified77  6/23/2013 9:42 PM

I suppose I'm open to other ideas, adding him and dropping someone else but as you can see my team, it's hard to do that... I wish I could trade but I'm not sure I can find a partner.  

(Points Per Stat)

	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	2B	3B	CS	HBP	HV	HRV	SBV	BBV	2BV	3BV	CSV	ABV	HBPV
		1	5	1144.30	0.00		Fielder, Prince		DET	1B	160		462	73	187	90	76	87	0.405	27	1	25	1	1	0	1047.20	253.80	1.90	228.00	72.50	5.70	-2.80	-462.00	0.00
		2	14	1028.80	0.00		Bautista, Jose		TOR	OF	146		386	72	148	75	76	80	0.383	31	6	19	1	2	0	828.80	291.40	11.40	228.00	55.10	5.70	-5.60	-386.00	0.00
		3	18	1005.90	0.00		Gonzalez, Adrian		LAD	1B/OF	82		488	67	190	83	51	88	0.389	20	1	29	1	1	0	1064.00	188.00	1.90	153.00	84.10	5.70	-2.80	-488.00	0.00
		3	21	986.20	0.00		Gordon, Alex		KC	OF	156		511	78	191	64	55	116	0.374	15	9	33	4	5	0	1069.60	141.00	17.10	165.00	95.70	22.80	-14.00	-511.00	0.00
		3	22	983.00	0.00		Holliday, Matt		STL	OF	156		456	73	179	75	56	88	0.393	19	3	30	1	3	0	1002.40	178.60	5.70	168.00	87.00	5.70	-8.40	-456.00	0.00
		4	30	935.40	0.00		Jackson, Austin		DET	OF	154		514	89	186	53	56	132	0.362	12	15	25	8	7	0	1041.60	112.80	28.50	168.00	72.50	45.60	-19.60	-514.00	0.00
		4	32	925.50	0.00		Granderson, Curtis		NYY	OF	130		427	75	152	74	54	124	0.356	28	11	17	3	4	0	851.20	263.20	20.90	162.00	49.30	17.10	-11.20	-427.00	0.00
		5	37	910.30	0.00		Headley, Chase		SD	3B	136		463	66	168	68	60	114	0.363	17	12	26	1	4	0	940.80	159.80	22.80	180.00	75.40	5.70	-11.20	-463.00	0.00
		9	67	835.90	0.00		Rios, Alex		CHW	OF	156		476	65	173	60	27	72	0.363	17	17	25	3	7	0	968.80	159.80	32.30	81.00	72.50	17.10	-19.60	-476.00	0.00
		15	120	699.60	0.00		Hardy, J.J.		BAL	SS	165		463	59	151	58	28	70	0.326	18	0	21	1	1	0	845.60	169.20	0.00	84.00	60.90	5.70	-2.80	-463.00	0.00
		21	166	616.90	0.00		Brown, Domonic		PHI	OF	146		355	43	121	44	37	72	0.341	12	5	19	3	4	0	677.60	112.80	9.50	111.00	55.10	17.10	-11.20	-355.00	0.00
		26	204	552.00	0.00		Carpenter, Matt		STL	1B/2B/3B/OF	124		290	41	109	36	34	61	0.376	6	2	19	3	1	0	610.40	56.40	3.80	102.00	55.10	17.10	-2.80	-290.00	0.00
		35	278	423.40	0.00		Rendon, Anthony		WAS	2B/3B	51		159	21	77	21	18	62	0.484	4	1	13	4	1	0	431.20	37.60	1.90	54.00	37.70	22.80	-2.80	-159.00	0.00
		39	310	377.30	0.00		Castro, Jason		HOU	C	159		281	33	85	28	29	59	0.302	5	1	15	1	1	0	476.00	47.00	1.90	87.00	43.50	5.70	-2.80	-281.00	0.00
		46	368	298.70	0.00		Puig, Yasiel		LAD	OF	41		130	13	61	15	9	46	0.469	4	4	8	1	5	0	341.60	37.60	7.60	27.00	23.20	5.70	-14.00	-130.00	0.00
	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	2B	3B	CS	HBP	HV	HRV	SBV	BBV	2BV	3BV	CSV	ABV	HBPV
				11723.20	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values				1962		5,861	868	2,178	844	666	1,271	0.372	235	88	324	36	47	0	12196.80	2209.00	167.20	1998.00	939.60	205.20	-131.60	-5861.00	0.00
				11723.20	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				1962		5,861	868	2,178	844	666	1,271	0.372	235	88	324	36	47	0	12196.80	2209.00	167.20	1998.00	939.60	205.20	-131.60	-5861.00	0.00

	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	SV	HLD	HBP	IPV	SVV	SOV	HLDV	HRV	HV	BBV	HBPV
		1	2	878.50	0.00		Kershaw, Clayton		LAD	SP	28		183.0	143	54	54	52	193	15	2.66	0	0	0	915.00	0.00	386.00	0.00	-195.00	-71.50	-156.00	0.00
		1	4	810.50	0.00		Lee, Cliff		PHI	SP	25		175.0	163	60	60	27	166	18	3.09	0	0	0	875.00	0.00	332.00	0.00	-234.00	-81.50	-81.00	0.00
		1	6	787.00	0.00		Shields, James		KC	SP	28		186.0	172	74	74	48	167	19	3.58	0	0	0	930.00	0.00	334.00	0.00	-247.00	-86.00	-144.00	0.00
		2	12	706.50	0.00		Cain, Matt		SF	SP	27		174.0	153	65	65	46	149	19	3.36	0	0	0	870.00	0.00	298.00	0.00	-247.00	-76.50	-138.00	0.00
		2	14	701.50	0.00		Gonzalez, Gio		WAS	SP	27		161.0	131	59	59	65	163	13	3.30	0	0	0	805.00	0.00	326.00	0.00	-169.00	-65.50	-195.00	0.00
		3	17	666.50	0.00		Masterson, Justin		CLE	SP	28		167.0	167	78	78	63	130	12	4.20	0	0	0	835.00	0.00	260.00	0.00	-156.00	-83.50	-189.00	0.00
		3	21	657.00	0.00		Lester, Jon		BOS	SP	27		163.0	154	71	71	58	144	15	3.92	0	0	0	815.00	0.00	288.00	0.00	-195.00	-77.00	-174.00	0.00
		4	30	638.00	0.00		Wilson, C.J.		LAA	SP	27		160.0	144	66	66	67	140	13	3.71	0	0	0	800.00	0.00	280.00	0.00	-169.00	-72.00	-201.00	0.00
		5	40	603.00	0.00		Lynn, Lance		STL	SP/RP	26		139.0	128	59	59	53	137	11	3.82	0	0	0	695.00	0.00	274.00	0.00	-143.00	-64.00	-159.00	0.00
		6	41	595.00	0.00		Hudson, Tim		ATL	SP	24		150.0	146	62	62	43	95	11	3.72	0	0	0	750.00	0.00	190.00	0.00	-143.00	-73.00	-129.00	0.00
		8	59	554.50	0.00		Liriano, Francisco		PIT	SP/RP	24		132.0	119	68	68	66	128	8	4.64	0	0	0	660.00	0.00	256.00	0.00	-104.00	-59.50	-198.00	0.00
		8	64	543.50	0.00		Corbin, Patrick		ARI	SP/RP	24		135.0	137	59	59	36	107	13	3.93	0	0	0	675.00	0.00	214.00	0.00	-169.00	-68.50	-108.00	0.00
		9	65	538.50	0.00		Holland, Derek		TEX	SP	25		150.0	143	71	71	47	124	19	4.26	0	0	0	750.00	0.00	248.00	0.00	-247.00	-71.50	-141.00	0.00
		11	88	481.50	0.00		Kendrick, Kyle		PHI	SP/RP	26		136.0	137	61	61	39	91	15	4.04	0	0	0	680.00	0.00	182.00	0.00	-195.00	-68.50	-117.00	0.00
		13	102	460.50	0.00		Wood, Travis		CHC	SP	26		138.0	131	66	66	48	107	18	4.30	0	0	0	690.00	0.00	214.00	0.00	-234.00	-65.50	-144.00	0.00
	Own	Round	Rank	Value	PosV	ValueC	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	SV	HLD	HBP	IPV	SVV	SOV	HLDV	HRV	HV	BBV	HBPV
				9622.00	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values				392		2,349.0	2,168	973	973	758	2,041	219	3.73	0	0	0	11745.00	0.00	4082.00	0.00	-2847.00	-1084.00	-2274.00	0.00
				9622.00	0.00	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				392		2,349.0	2,168	973	973	758	2,041	219	3.73	0	0	0	11745.00	0.00	4082.00	0.00	-2847.00	-1084.00	-2274.00	0.00

mbuser   6/24/2013 1:34 PM

Your league is not very quick to the wire if Alvarez is still sitting there. I did take a look at his projection and upgrade his HR tally a bit. He's hot now (.324/.398/.757 over his past 20 games) and warrants a roster spot while that is the case - his upside projects to prodigious power tied to ~.250 average. Points leagues tend to like run producers more than most other settings where lesser run totals or lower averages might otherwise be penalized - how does a guy like Rendon look without much in the way of counting stats? What about one of your 15(!) starting pitchers, any chance you move one out for someone as hot as Alvarez?

crucified77  6/24/2013 11:02 PM

Someone just nabbed him just before I got the courage to drop someone for him.  Now I'm convinced he's here, read this post, and undermined me while I am trying to play him this week H2H.  He dropped  Scutero for him so maybe I should move on that.  

Yes, my league is slow to the waiver wire but speeding up very quickly (I'm still surprised I nabbed Puig after sitting on him for a short time).   My league is based on SABR points (link) so it's not a normal points system and it doesn't count percentages, KO's and RBI's.  

Still, should I make a move to drop Headley I wonder.  I dropped Prado when he was (and still is) stinking it up and didn't regret it.  

Last 30 days Alvarez was: 7.84   

The last 30 days guys on my team (3B eligable) ranked in ROS projections:

1. Carpenter: 8.10

2. Headley: 2.41 (Prado: 2.76)

3. Rendon: 7.06

Other players (ordered based on ROS projections with their 30 day average): Reynolds 1.83 / Arenado  5.00 /  Scutero 6.34 WW / Alverez 7.84 GONE / Plouffe 5.98 / Prado 2.76

As far as my team breakdown, I have 13 hitters (so I have 1 on the bench already) with 8 active pitcher slots and 8 on the bench.  I like to maximize my  # of pitchers to get more points.  Batters on the bench don't do anything for me unless someone is injuried or not playing well (but I could play matchups).  Already I see the long ball hurting my pitcher scores big time when they rack up.