12 team H2H Weekly Points league - Hitting vs Pitching

tomm0  2/27/2014 5:27 PM

Hey guys, I am also in a 12 team H2H Weekly Points league and I have this hitting vs pitching debate every year before the draft. I'll start off by saying it is a keeper league, and one player can be kept from the previous year who was drafted in the 6th round or later. You have to forfeit that round's pick in order to keep someone. I know it's very likely Matt Carpenter regresses this year, but he was the 5th best hitter in this format last year and I am keeping him in the 21st round. We start C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 4 OF, 1 U, 5 SP, 2 RP (MUST be CLOSERS).

I have the 4th overall pick this year, and Goldschmidt is the only notable first rounder being kept. The guy at 3 will most likely take McCutchen leaving me with the decision of whether or not I should take Kershaw. I typically wait until AT LEAST the third round to draft my first pitcher, and like to stream at least two 2-start guys each week in this format. What do you guys think? Is Kershaw worth it here and then I can just wait on pitchers until about the 6th or 7th?

Here are the top 5 hitters and pitchers last year with their point values for some reference to how the scoring plays out:
Cabrera, Miguel - 587
Trout, Mike - 557.50
Davis, Chris - 553.50
Goldschmidt, Paul - 534
Carpenter, Matt - 494.50

Scherzer, Max - 595.50
Kershaw, Clayton - 588.50
Wainwright, Adam - 583
Lee, Cliff - 533
Darvish, Yu - 526.50

The scoring system:
Singles 1 point
Doubles 2 points
Triples 3 points
Walks (Batters) 0.5 points
Caught Stealing -1 point
Hitting for the Cycle 10 points
Ground Into Double Plays -0.5 points
Hit by Pitch 0.5 points
Home Runs 4 points
Strikeouts (Batter) -0.5 points
Runs 1 point
Runs Batted In 1 point
Stolen Bases 1 point

Walks Issued (Pitchers) -0.5 points
Blown Saves -2 points
Complete Games 3 points
Earned Runs -1 point
Hit Batsmen -0.5 points
Innings 1.5 points
Strikeouts (Pitcher) 1 point
Losses -6 points
No-Hitters 15 points
Perfect Games 20 points
Quality Starts 1 point
Saves 6 points
Wins 6 points

mbuser   2/28/2014 12:31 PM

How many people in your league stream SP? What were some per-game point totals for SP last season, not just the top 5 but down through the ranks?

tomm0  2/28/2014 12:43 PM

Almost all teams stream at least one guy every week.  They've also made moves $1 each, so if I'm streaming new guys every single week that could add up.  I think Closers will be more important this year since every team must start 2 and Saves are worth the same number of points as Wins.  Looking at some per-game totals we have:

tomm0  3/4/2014 8:36 PM

So I know I had this same debate last season but here are the top 24 projections for this league.  This kind of makes it difficult to determine which route to go though I am thinking Kershaw should be my pick at 4 no matter what if he's still there.

Round	Rank	Value	PosV	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	Age	g	News	Date	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	CS	GDP	HBP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	KV	CSV	GDPV	HBPV	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	L	QS	CG	HBP	BS	WHIP	IPV	WV	SVV	ERV	SOV	LV	BBV	QSV	CGV	HBPV	BSV
1	1	589.63	559.52	Kershaw, Clayton		LAD	SP	26	33		3/4																												232.2	186	79	73	57	237	17	2.81	17	0	6	24	4	0	0	1.04	348.27	104.15	0.00	-72.59	237.34	-34.37	-28.38	23.82	11.39	0.00	0.00
1	2	556.71	542.44	Cabrera, Miguel		DET	3B	30	156		3/4	575	107	188	123	85	93	0.327	40	3	120	29	0	0	19	4	158.02	122.56	2.88	106.68	42.60	119.55	57.19	1.41	-46.57	-0.15	-9.49	2.01
1	3	547.93	537.97	Trout, Mike		LAA	OF	22	156		3/4	597	122	187	96	101	140	0.313	28	35	117	34	7	6	8	8	112.17	95.77	35.45	122.11	50.65	117.41	68.05	22.43	-69.86	-6.26	-4.18	4.19
1	4	540.36	510.26	Darvish, Yu		TEX	SP	27	32		3/4																												209.3	158	80	73	78	258	21	3.14	16	0	7	22	2	0	0	1.13	314.01	93.11	0.00	-73.14	258.18	-41.12	-38.96	21.87	6.40	0.00	0.00
1	5	538.22	508.12	Hernandez, Felix		SEA	SP	27	33		3/4																												227.6	205	84	77	56	225	19	3.05	15	0	8	23	3	0	0	1.14	341.34	91.29	0.00	-77.06	225.03	-47.23	-27.81	22.92	9.75	0.00	0.00
1	6	524.02	493.91	Wainwright, Adam		STL	SP	32	32		3/4																												220.5	206	81	74	44	198	18	3.03	16	0	6	22	3	0	0	1.13	330.79	96.71	0.00	-74.15	198.47	-37.52	-22.05	22.32	9.44	0.00	0.00
1	7	508.01	477.91	Sale, Chris		CHW	SP	25	31		3/4																												213.5	192	84	77	50	225	24	3.24	14	0	8	21	3	0	0	1.13	320.23	82.17	0.00	-76.91	225.35	-47.78	-24.91	20.73	9.14	0.00	0.00
1	8	507.93	477.82	Verlander, Justin		DET	SP	31	33		3/3																												227.6	201	93	85	66	219	21	3.38	14	0	9	21	3	0	0	1.17	341.34	86.76	0.00	-85.49	218.71	-51.76	-32.87	21.49	9.75	0.00	0.00
1	9	504.33	474.22	Lee, Cliff		PHI	SP	35	31		3/4																												218.1	200	83	76	36	207	23	3.15	14	0	8	21	4	0	0	1.08	327.19	81.22	0.00	-76.39	207.22	-48.73	-17.93	21.06	10.68	0.00	0.00
1	10	486.58	456.48	Strasburg, Stephen		WAS	SP	25	31		3/4																												193.4	161	71	66	59	213	17	3.06	15	0	6	22	1	0	0	1.14	290.06	91.64	0.00	-65.71	212.71	-38.30	-29.54	21.50	4.22	0.00	0.00
1	11	480.40	450.30	Bumgarner, Madison		SF	SP	24	32		3/4																												207.7	178	81	75	57	200	18	3.24	15	0	7	21	2	0	0	1.13	311.61	89.44	0.00	-74.70	199.66	-44.79	-28.28	21.41	6.04	0.00	0.00
1	12	479.71	449.61	Price, David		TB	SP	28	32		3/4																												217.3	192	87	80	54	195	19	3.32	14	0	8	21	3	0	0	1.13	325.99	85.15	0.00	-80.09	195.35	-49.08	-27.17	21.06	8.49	0.00	0.00
Round	Rank	Value	PosV	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	Age	g	News	Date	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	CS	GDP	HBP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	KV	CSV	GDPV	HBPV	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	L	QS	CG	HBP	BS	WHIP	IPV	WV	SVV	ERV	SOV	LV	BBV	QSV	CGV	HBPV	BSV
2	13	478.57	448.47	Scherzer, Max		DET	SP	29	32		3/4																												201.3	170	81	75	57	221	23	3.34	14	0	8	21	2	0	0	1.13	302.02	83.40	0.00	-74.80	221.48	-50.84	-28.41	21.06	4.65	0.00	0.00
2	14	476.41	433.98	Fielder, Prince		TEX	1B	29	160		3/4	601	97	173	104	77	101	0.287	28	1	111	34	0	0	19	11	111.79	104.00	1.06	96.98	38.67	110.75	67.28	0.52	-50.54	-0.35	-9.41	5.66
2	15	472.23	462.27	McCutchen, Andrew		PIT	OF	27	159		3/4	591	92	178	90	77	113	0.301	24	22	112	36	6	9	11	7	95.99	89.95	22.05	92.44	38.37	111.81	72.88	16.53	-56.38	-9.45	-5.61	3.67
2	16	469.61	439.51	Shields, James		KC	SP	32	33		3/1																												224.3	214	97	89	62	194	22	3.57	14	0	9	21	3	0	0	1.23	336.40	83.93	0.00	-88.85	194.36	-54.59	-31.15	20.75	8.76	0.00	0.00
2	17	464.12	421.68	Goldschmidt, Paul		ARI	1B	26	154		3/4	572	96	166	92	85	138	0.291	31	14	96	37	3	7	17	4	123.17	92.23	14.29	95.82	42.36	96.04	73.24	8.99	-68.95	-6.57	-8.29	1.81
2	18	462.63	420.20	Encarnacion, Edwin		TOR	1B	31	146		3/4	516	87	142	95	77	72	0.275	35	8	79	28	1	2	15	6	140.28	95.40	8.00	87.46	38.57	78.74	55.09	1.87	-36.20	-1.82	-7.67	2.91
2	19	459.94	455.86	Cano, Robinson		SEA	2B	31	159		3/4	606	86	180	97	61	83	0.297	23	5	115	42	0	2	18	7	90.05	97.06	5.44	85.58	30.35	115.30	83.93	0.97	-41.69	-1.53	-8.94	3.44
2	20	455.50	425.39	Fernandez, Jose		MIA	SP	21	31		3/4																												194.9	156	74	68	69	212	16	3.16	13	0	8	21	2	0	0	1.16	292.38	79.15	0.00	-68.41	212.25	-50.80	-34.65	21.06	4.50	0.00	0.00
2	21	450.56	436.30	Beltre, Adrian		TEX	3B	34	152		3/4	576	81	173	105	43	74	0.300	27	1	118	28	1	0	13	6	107.14	105.47	0.91	80.57	21.68	117.60	55.65	1.81	-36.85	-0.23	-6.34	3.16
2	22	450.00	419.89	Greinke, Zack		LAD	SP	30	31		3/4																												194.9	175	78	71	50	177	17	3.30	15	0	6	21	2	0	0	1.16	292.38	91.10	0.00	-71.46	176.95	-38.85	-25.12	20.51	4.50	0.00	0.00
2	23	449.31	419.21	Gonzalez, Gio		WAS	SP	28	32		3/4																												198.8	174	83	76	77	197	17	3.46	15	0	7	21	1	0	0	1.27	298.19	89.52	0.00	-76.39	196.58	-44.71	-38.65	20.59	4.18	0.00	0.00
2	24	445.23	402.80	Davis, Chris		BAL	1B	28	154		3/4	587	95	157	100	54	193	0.268	41	4	82	34	1	2	5	10	162.87	100.07	3.69	95.39	27.25	81.91	67.60	2.36	-96.48	-1.58	-2.64	4.81

ken_admin  3/4/2014 8:38 PM

To me, Kershaw is the unique pitcher worth the high pick though I would also view ADP to determine when to grab any pitcher. Obviously, someone like Kershaw will go somewhere in the first round in most leagues.

tomm0  3/4/2014 8:45 PM

Being a points league makes this a little different and ADP probably isn't that reliable since points leagues are probably the minority.  The issue is all of the pitchers being ranking so highly due to the scoring making it difficult to determine their true value compared to hitters.  I guess I could sort by position value instead of value though that also throws things off with DH only players at the top and 1B fairly low in the ranks compared to ADP and projected points.

tomm0  3/16/2014 10:47 AM

Trying to revisit this since my draft is approaching.  Going by the projections I assume I would have to take Kershaw at 4 if he's there right?

mbuser   3/16/2014 5:36 PM

It sure looks that way

tomm0  3/27/2014 8:17 AM

Need some guys to get/stay healthy, but I'm pretty satisfied with this team.  Kershaw news broke 40 minutes after I took him 4th overall.

(Points Per Stat)

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	CS	GDP	HBP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	KV	CSV	GDPV	HBPV
1	11	444.14	Davis, Chris		BAL	1B	154		586	95	157	100	54	193	0.268	41	4	82	34	1	2	5	10	162.59	99.90	3.69	94.89	27.20	81.77	67.49	2.35	-96.32	-1.58	-2.64	4.80
2	13	436.82	Choo, Shin-Soo		TEX	OF	151		588	104	168	66	99	134	0.285	19	20	110	36	2	9	6	20	76.40	65.96	19.74	104.49	49.45	109.97	72.05	7.39	-66.96	-8.66	-2.79	9.79
2	18	428.99	Reyes, Jose		TOR	SS	143		599	98	175	58	53	59	0.292	12	30	123	32	7	9	9	1	48.94	57.70	30.49	98.44	26.73	123.23	64.67	20.98	-29.67	-8.60	-4.25	0.33
2	19	428.96	Carpenter, Matt		STL	2B/3B	154		633	96	187	62	75	107	0.296	11	3	118	51	7	3	8	8	44.24	61.51	3.05	96.42	37.55	117.92	101.98	22.50	-53.49	-2.81	-3.80	3.90
2	24	420.91	Harper, Bryce		WAS	OF	143		538	84	152	82	69	118	0.282	27	15	91	30	5	5	6	4	106.17	81.87	15.04	83.73	34.60	90.70	59.15	14.56	-58.88	-5.42	-2.82	2.22
5	59	369.97	Aoki, Norichika		KC	OF	141		586	82	169	49	52	45	0.289	7	20	133	26	4	9	9	11	28.47	49.12	19.67	81.72	26.19	132.71	52.20	10.68	-22.36	-9.47	-4.40	5.43
6	65	363.14	Gordon, Alex		KC	OF	156		556	70	152	78	48	121	0.273	18	11	101	29	5	3	6	7	71.07	77.85	10.80	69.88	24.18	100.53	57.40	14.58	-60.46	-3.23	-2.78	3.33
6	72	352.64	Sandoval, Pablo		SF	3B	146		508	64	144	76	46	74	0.284	17	2	94	30	3	1	15	4	69.25	76.47	1.70	63.98	22.84	94.35	60.02	7.79	-37.10	-0.85	-7.62	1.80
8	87	337.01	Ramirez, Aramis		MIL	3B	130		479	59	131	73	43	78	0.274	20	3	82	28	1	1	10	9	81.38	72.55	2.86	58.74	21.54	81.84	56.18	2.95	-38.90	-1.43	-5.15	4.44
11	122	307.35	Arenado, Nolan		COL	3B	138		502	58	138	59	29	68	0.276	13	2	90	32	3	2	16	2	53.71	59.39	1.81	58.03	14.31	89.84	64.78	8.31	-34.20	-1.81	-8.02	1.19
11	125	305.59	Perez, Salvador		KC	C	130		462	55	136	67	20	54	0.294	14	0	96	24	2	0	14	3	55.45	67.29	0.00	54.51	10.13	95.81	47.57	7.34	-27.02	0.00	-6.93	1.45
11	131	301.90	Cabrera, Melky		TOR	OF	138		483	57	139	57	32	65	0.287	10	9	98	26	5	4	9	0	38.82	57.33	8.76	56.94	16.24	97.60	52.68	14.97	-32.48	-4.38	-4.69	0.10
14	161	260.52	Miller, Brad		SEA	SS	143		422	52	115	51	38	85	0.272	11	10	80	20	4	5	3	2	45.72	51.25	9.88	51.96	18.86	79.89	39.06	12.06	-42.55	-4.93	-1.48	0.81
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	CS	GDP	HBP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	KV	CSV	GDPV	HBPV
		4757.93	Avg Stats/Total Values				1867		6,942	974	1,963	878	660	1,201	0.283	221	127	1,296	398	49	53	115	79	882.22	878.19	127.49	973.72	329.84	1296.16	795.23	146.45	-600.39	-53.17	-57.37	39.57
		3888.16	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				1448		5,535	807	1,571	710	561	982	0.284	186	107	1,029	319	37	42	86	75	743.98	710.22	107.04	806.79	280.42	1028.82	638.71	111.11	-491.16	-42.05	-43.19	37.47

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	L	QS	CG	HBP	BS	WHIP	IPV	WV	SVV	ERV	SOV	LV	BBV	QSV	CGV	HBPV	BSV
1	1	548.05	Kershaw, Clayton		LAD	SP	31		217.8	174	74	68	53	223	16	2.81	16	0	6	22	4	0	0	1.04	326.73	95.15	0.00	-68.10	222.66	-34.79	-26.62	22.35	10.68	0.00	0.00
2	15	447.62	Bailey, Homer		CIN	SP	32		207.7	189	90	83	54	188	23	3.59	14	0	9	20	2	0	0	1.17	311.61	82.90	0.00	-82.93	188.12	-51.33	-26.78	19.99	6.04	0.00	0.00
2	22	427.24	Kimbrel, Craig		ATL	RP	71		70.5	43	16	15	23	109	4	1.86	4	42	4	0	0	0	7	0.93	105.73	23.58	253.35	-14.56	108.87	-24.61	-11.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	-13.76
3	25	421.12	Fister, Doug		WAS	SP	31		196.5	201	80	74	43	151	16	3.39	15	0	7	20	2	0	0	1.24	294.70	88.00	0.00	-73.92	150.63	-41.95	-21.28	20.16	4.79	0.00	0.00
3	30	416.44	Cole, Gerrit		PIT	SP	31		194.9	175	84	77	64	173	17	3.55	14	0	8	19	2	0	0	1.23	292.38	82.77	0.00	-76.83	173.26	-47.18	-31.95	19.47	4.50	0.00	0.00
3	34	410.53	Minor, Mike		ATL	SP	30		188.5	172	82	75	50	168	20	3.58	14	0	7	19	1	0	0	1.18	282.74	81.48	0.00	-74.99	167.55	-44.19	-25.13	18.71	4.35	0.00	0.00
6	67	353.77	Kluber, Corey		CLE	SP	29		170.5	176	78	72	47	150	20	3.77	12	0	8	17	1	0	0	1.31	255.77	72.07	0.00	-71.51	149.67	-49.31	-23.68	17.30	3.47	0.00	0.00
7	73	342.72	Salazar, Danny		CLE	SP	26		149.9	130	64	59	51	158	17	3.56	11	0	7	16	1	0	0	1.21	224.81	66.77	0.00	-59.27	158.20	-41.76	-25.39	16.26	3.10	0.00	0.00
11	131	279.84	Soria, Joakim		TEX	RP	65		64.1	57	28	26	24	66	7	3.67	4	28	4	0	0	0	6	1.26	96.19	25.34	165.09	-26.15	65.56	-22.30	-12.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	-11.77
24	283	125.87	Bradley, Archie		ARI	SP	11		62.8	59	31	28	31	57	6	4.06	5	0	3	6	0	0	0	1.43	94.25	28.97	0.00	-28.36	57.25	-18.15	-15.71	6.28	1.35	0.00	0.00
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	L	QS	CG	HBP	BS	WHIP	IPV	WV	SVV	ERV	SOV	LV	BBV	QSV	CGV	HBPV	BSV
		3773.20	Avg Stats/Total Values				357		1,523.3	1,376	627	577	440	1,442	145	3.41	108	70	63	141	13	0	13	1.19	2284.92	647.02	418.43	-576.63	1441.76	-375.57	-220.01	140.53	38.28	0.00	-25.53
		2883.03	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				287		1,101.4	969	437	402	311	1,067	100	3.28	77	70	44	98	10	0	13	1.16	1652.16	464.50	418.43	-401.76	1067.29	-263.92	-155.49	98.24	29.12	0.00	-25.53