Deep Dynasty League Discussion Thread

manbearpigs  5/13/2014 7:36 PM

I have a bunch of questions about my dynasty strategy, as this is my first dynasty attempt. I'll post my team and some other data first, then ask questions later. I guess I'm hoping for a general dynasty discussion, so I hope that will be interesting.

It's a 16 team, 38 roster slot, 5 DL, 25 category, all cats H2H league with 26 dynasty keepers.

16 Teams | 23 Hitters Per Team [12 Active = HR RBI SB R 2B 3B K BA E OBP SLG A] | 20 Pitchers Per Team [9 Active = W ERA WHIP SO HLD L HR K/9 OBA, 1 Punted = SV]

Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	2B	3B	E	OBP	SLG	A	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	2BV	3BV	KV	BAV	EV	OBPV	SLGV	AV
1	9	1.12	1.12	0.00	Gonzalez, Carlos		COL	LF	104		401	65	114	65	40	103	0.285	21	17	23	4	2	0.352	0.524	0	1.96	1.60	1.50	1.46	1.04	1.95	-1.53	1.21	0.64	0.95	2.71	0.00
1	16	0.89	0.89	0.00	Ortiz, David		BOS	DH	100		370	62	106	64	55	67	0.286	19	1	25	1	1	0.379	0.510	0	1.53	1.56	-0.64	1.33	1.32	-0.47	-0.30	1.17	0.87	2.14	2.16	0.00
3	37	0.65	0.65	0.00	Posey, Buster		SF	C	112		415	57	121	62	48	61	0.292	14	1	26	1	7	0.371	0.460	0	0.76	1.46	-0.59	1.05	1.43	-0.26	-0.08	1.70	-0.66	1.99	1.01	0.00
3	44	0.59	0.59	0.00	Jackson, Austin		DET	CF	115		406	48	114	58	40	93	0.280	10	8	23	6	4	0.347	0.436	0	0.10	1.23	0.24	0.58	1.05	3.10	-1.21	0.88	0.06	0.72	0.33	0.00
3	46	0.58	0.58	0.00	Heyward, Jason		ATL	RF	110		445	76	115	45	56	96	0.259	18	9	24	2	1	0.349	0.447	0	1.47	0.55	0.41	2.04	1.16	0.65	-1.28	-0.46	0.84	0.88	0.69	0.00
4	63	0.40	0.40	0.00	Yelich, Christian		MIA	LF	111		428	61	114	40	51	116	0.267	10	16	22	4	1	0.347	0.405	0	0.10	0.29	1.37	1.25	0.97	1.70	-1.98	0.09	0.84	0.74	-0.57	0.00
8	118	0.14	0.14	0.00	Hamilton, Billy		CIN	CF	103		433	51	106	25	33	97	0.244	5	55	18	4	1	0.305	0.333	0	-0.71	-0.52	6.49	0.76	0.35	1.43	-1.31	-1.46	0.86	-1.52	-2.71	0.00
8	119	0.13	0.13	0.00	Walker, Neil		PIT	2B	106		421	60	107	39	41	72	0.254	13	2	22	3	5	0.335	0.411	0	0.60	0.21	-0.47	1.20	0.90	0.96	-0.49	-0.76	-0.26	0.07	-0.39	0.00
8	121	0.13	0.13	0.00	Machado, Manny		BAL	3B	113		462	62	125	50	26	82	0.271	12	5	29	2	10	0.313	0.420	0	0.44	0.81	-0.11	1.34	1.85	0.48	-0.80	0.39	-1.56	-1.17	-0.14	0.00
8	128	0.09	0.09	0.00	Rendon, Anthony		WAS	2B	105		427	57	115	44	35	74	0.270	11	2	27	3	15	0.332	0.425	0	0.28	0.51	-0.47	1.09	1.58	1.35	-0.54	0.29	-2.94	-0.06	0.01	0.00
10	145	0.04	0.04	0.00	Arcia, Oswaldo		MIN	LF	102		349	41	90	44	28	98	0.259	14	2	18	2	3	0.321	0.445	0	0.81	0.53	-0.55	0.26	0.39	0.55	-1.36	-0.36	0.19	-0.52	0.50	0.00
13	193	-0.17	-0.17	0.00	Profar, Jurickson		TEX	2B	90		291	33	74	32	29	56	0.255	8	7	15	2	8	0.333	0.398	0	-0.22	-0.13	0.16	-0.18	0.00	0.25	0.08	-0.48	-0.95	-0.01	-0.52	0.00
13	200	-0.20	-0.20	0.00	Cain, Lorenzo		KC	CF	94		304	30	78	31	23	68	0.258	4	11	15	2	3	0.314	0.367	0	-0.73	-0.17	0.74	-0.34	0.04	0.48	-0.32	-0.36	0.22	-0.72	-1.20	0.00
15	225	-0.27	-0.27	0.00	Grandal, Yasmani		SD	C	74		217	27	56	26	32	52	0.260	6	1	12	1	6	0.358	0.403	0	-0.51	-0.44	-0.69	-0.46	-0.35	-0.67	0.22	-0.19	-0.47	0.68	-0.32	0.00
Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	2B	3B	E	OBP	SLG	A	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	2BV	3BV	KV	BAV	EV	OBPV	SLGV	AV
		4.15	4.15	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values				1440		5,370	728	1,437	624	536	1,134	0.268	163	136	300	38	67	0.340	0.429	0	5.88	7.47	7.39	11.38	11.73	11.50	-10.89	1.66	-2.31	4.42	1.57	0.00
		4.47	4.47	0.00	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				1154		4,426	625	1,194	516	457	912	0.270	137	116	251	32	53	0.343	0.434	0	6.03	7.25	7.03	11.65	11.29	10.22	-9.28	2.86	-1.77	5.63	2.79	0.00

Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	HLD	L	K/9	OBA	AB	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV	HLDV	LV	HRV	K/9V	OBAV
2	26	0.63	0.52	+0.10	Torres, Alexander		SD	RP	33		49.8	37	16	14	20	53	2	2.60	3	0	1.13	4	1	9.6	0.200	183	-0.49	-0.40	1.62	0.79	-0.10	-0.15	0.70	0.87	0.73	1.68
2	28	0.59	0.50	+0.08	Watson, Tony		PIT	RP	50		50.0	36	21	19	15	43	5	3.42	4	1	1.02	11	2	7.8	0.196	183	-0.22	-0.25	0.07	1.66	-0.35	1.94	0.39	0.30	-0.39	1.88
2	29	0.59	0.50	+0.08	Rodriguez, Paco		LAD	RP	40		30.2	20	11	10	11	34	3	2.95	3	1	1.02	8	1	10.2	0.183	109	-0.32	-0.25	0.58	1.02	-0.57	1.08	0.57	0.74	0.66	1.50
4	52	0.45	0.38	+0.07	Howell, J.P.		LAD	RP	43		39.7	29	17	15	16	34	3	3.49	3	1	1.12	11	1	7.7	0.196	145	-0.37	-0.25	-0.06	0.73	-0.57	2.03	0.53	0.65	-0.34	1.49
8	113	0.02	0.06	-0.04	Feliz, Neftali		TEX	RP	37		36.1	29	17	16	17	33	4	3.95	2	6	1.27	6	2	8.2	0.214	135	-0.63	0.42	-0.69	-0.19	-0.60	0.64	0.51	0.52	-0.09	0.73
15	227	-0.14	-0.17	+0.03	Corbin, Patrick		ARI	SP	0		0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0.00	0	0	0.0	0.000	0	-1.40	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-1.40	-1.11	1.33	1.30	0.00	0.00
13	200	-0.14	-0.17	+0.03	Medlen, Kris		ATL	SP	0		0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0.00	0	0	0.0	0.000	0	-1.40	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-1.40	-1.11	1.33	1.30	0.00	0.00
13	206	-0.14	-0.17	+0.03	Parker, Jarrod		OAK	SP	0		0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0.00	0	0	0.0	0.000	0	-1.40	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-1.40	-1.11	1.33	1.30	0.00	0.00
20	310	-0.30	-0.31	+0.01	Zimmermann, Jordan		WAS	SP	24		156.6	152	61	57	32	124	14	3.25	12	0	1.17	0	5	7.1	0.248	612	2.33	-0.40	1.21	1.49	1.63	-1.11	-1.61	-1.84	-2.42	-2.34
20	320	-0.32	-0.32	+0.01	Duffy, Danny		KC	SP	4		21.3	20	10	9	10	20	2	4.00	2	0	1.43	0	1	8.4	0.246	83	-0.92	-0.40	-0.44	-0.66	-0.92	-1.11	0.65	0.81	0.00	-0.26
21	324	-0.32	-0.33	+0.01	McGowan, Dustin		TOR	RP	21		40.9	37	20	18	18	34	4	4.05	3	0	1.32	2	2	7.5	0.233	157	-0.50	-0.40	-0.94	-0.60	-0.56	-0.57	0.34	0.37	-0.44	0.03
25	386	-0.47	-0.46	-0.01	Erlin, Robbie		SD	SP	26		69.6	68	30	28	21	55	7	3.59	5	0	1.28	2	3	7.2	0.250	272	0.20	-0.40	-0.38	-0.47	-0.05	-0.66	-0.41	-0.18	-1.05	-1.18
28	445	-0.64	-0.62	-0.02	Stroman, Marcus		TOR	RP	17		99.1	95	46	42	33	90	12	3.84	7	0	1.29	0	5	8.2	0.246	386	0.80	-0.40	-1.48	-0.88	0.80	-1.00	-1.19	-1.33	-0.25	-1.22
30	465	-0.71	-0.68	-0.03	Collmenter, Josh		ARI	RP	28		121.0	115	55	50	35	96	13	3.75	8	0	1.24	1	5	7.2	0.244	470	1.31	-0.40	-1.40	-0.16	0.94	-0.84	-1.39	-1.62	-1.86	-1.34
33	527	-1.12	-1.05	-0.07	Cahill, Trevor		ARI	SP	20		97.7	97	46	43	38	70	9	3.93	7	0	1.39	1	4	6.4	0.253	384	0.74	-0.40	-1.80	-2.39	0.30	-0.95	-1.01	-0.59	-2.37	-1.98
35	552	-1.43	-1.32	-0.10	Hernandez, Roberto		PHI	SP	17		99.7	107	48	44	27	70	12	3.95	6	0	1.35	0	6	6.3	0.267	399	0.67	-0.40	-1.89	-1.80	0.31	-1.11	-1.66	-1.21	-2.53	-3.63
Round	Rank	PuntV	LeagV	Punt+	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	HLD	L	K/9	OBA	AB	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV	HLDV	LV	HRV	K/9V	OBAV
		-3.44	-3.61	+0.17	Avg Stats/Total Values				360		911.8	840	398	366	293	757	89	3.61	65	9	1.24	46	39	7.5	0.239	3,517	-1.59	-5.15	-5.61	-1.46	-3.93	-5.12	0.39	1.40	-10.36	-4.66
		-2.25	-2.38	+0.13	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				276		765.1	707	330	304	238	635	75	3.57	55	3	1.23	36	32	7.5	0.239	2,953	3.53	-3.56	-3.60	-0.20	1.48	-1.21	-4.03	-3.22	-8.78	-4.24

Players and cats not included:

H: Carlos Correa, Addison Russell, Joc Pedersen, Jorge Alfaro, Corey Seager, Garin Cecchini, David Dahl

P: Matt Harvey, Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims, Miguel Almonte

Cats: Fielding Chances, Put Outs, Outfield Assists.

Settings: 7 min/12 max starts per week.

manbearpigs  5/13/2014 8:03 PM

A few things I've realized:

Firstly, I obviously drafted too future-heavy, so I'm basically tanking the season already. I'm not sure if this was a great strategy.

Secondly, I decided to punt saves from the beginning, because I figured I'd target holds instead and hopefully get more value out of the less flashy middle relievers. If any of my prospects become closers, I'll trade them. So far I'm dominating holds with waiver wire pickups, and I'm fairly competitive in ERA, BAA, WHIP and the negative pitching cats. In the future I'll rely purely on the draft/waivers to fill my RP slots, and only ever keep SPs.

Thirdly, the lack of fielding categories in BBM severely skews the rankings. Assists is available as a setting, but there are no projections for it. Basically, all MI get a big bump in value, and in the future I'll target 1B a little more.

manbearpigs  5/13/2014 8:08 PM

So, my first questions:

1. Why no assists projections, and is there any chance of adding other fielding categories?

2. Was future-heavy a mistake?

3. Is tanking acceptable? I'm not clearing my roster, I always play the best lineup, but I'm not actively trading to improve for the short term.

ken_admin  5/13/2014 8:29 PM

I can address #1. Here's the three categories we currently don't project:

• Outfield Assists - We do have these in the rankings (as you mention). For the projections, we could create a reasonable estimate by checking the player's history and where little data is available, apply a generic assist rate based on the field played by the player (LF,CF,RF).
• Putouts - This would be similar to assists but even more dependent on the player's infield position. I would guess this is mostly a function of position and playing time than anything related to the actual player.
• Fielding Chances - Currently, we do not get this data from our provider so it's unlikely it will be added this season.

jphanned   5/13/2014 9:37 PM

2. Future-heavy can be a mistake. I'm in a keeper right now and have been in plenty of others, and what ends up happening a lot of the time is you end up constant rebuild mode. You're building for a future that never really comes to fruition. It's fine to look ahead and I don't mind a rebuild like you are this year, but keep in mind that a good amount of young talented players who are set up well for the future can either disappoint or get injured. Jose Fernandez is one of many examples - Jurickson Profar is a guy I've stashed in my keeper for 2+ years now and I've gotten little to nothing in return from him. Given manager's general tendencies in these formats I think the smart play is actually to play for now. You can get older veterans at a steep discount, and sell high on young talent that is often times overvalued by the market.

3. No problem with that for me, though I'll add that if I was a commish in a keeper/dynasty format, I'd look to have some sort of preventative measure in place (7th place gets the first pick, or a lottery) that would discourage this sort of behavior. But as long as you're fielding full rosters it shouldn't be an issue.