Points League - Pitching vs Hitting

tomm0  3/24/2015 8:29 PM

I throw this out there every year so it's always nice to get some fresh input.  12 team H2H weekly points league.  C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, U, 4 OF, 5 SP, 2 Closers.  I am picking 2nd overall and will be keeping Kluber with my 20th round pick.  This is how the top 20 look projections-wise:

Round	Rank	TRank	CBSADP	Value	Name	Inj	Status	Team	Pos	Age	g	News	Date	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	CS	GDP	HBP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	KV	CSV	GDPV	HBPV	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	L	QS	CG	HBP	BS	WHIP	IPV	WV	SVV	ERV	SOV	LV	BBV	QSV	CGV	HBPV	BSV
1	1	1	4 (+3)	617.19	Clayton Kershaw			LAD	SP	27	32		3/2																												232.6	162	62	57	48	247	12	2.19	17	0	6	26	4	0	0	0.90	348.90	99.60	0.00	-56.70	246.90	-36.00	-24.20	25.55	13.14	0.00	0.00
1	2	2	21 (+19)	589.83	David Price			DET	SP	29	34		2/27																												244.8	231	81	75	35	232	21	2.74	16	0	8	25	5	0	0	1.09	367.20	93.60	0.00	-74.60	231.60	-49.20	-17.50	24.90	13.83	0.00	0.00
1	3	3	12 (+9)	588.10	Felix Hernandez			SEA	SP	28	34		2/27																												231.2	188	71	65	49	244	17	2.54	16	0	8	26	3	0	0	1.03	346.80	97.80	0.00	-65.30	243.80	-45.00	-24.70	25.67	9.03	0.00	0.00
1	4	4	17 (+13)	587.86	Max Scherzer			WAS	SP	30	34		2/27																												227.8	183	75	69	62	249	19	2.71	17	0	7	25	3	0	0	1.07	341.70	103.20	0.00	-68.50	248.70	-39.60	-30.75	25.01	8.10	0.00	0.00
1	5	5	17 (+12)	550.68	Chris Sale			CHW	SP	26	32		2/28																												218.7	181	72	66	48	243	20	2.72	14	0	8	23	3	0	0	1.05	328.05	85.20	0.00	-66.00	242.80	-48.00	-24.05	23.32	9.36	0.00	0.00
1	6	6	28 (+22)	539.72	Corey Kluber			CLE	SP	28	34		3/9																												221.0	209	73	67	49	225	18	2.73	16	0	8	25	2	0	0	1.17	331.50	93.00	0.00	-67.10	225.30	-49.80	-24.50	24.90	6.42	0.00	0.00
1	7	7	52 (+45)	536.04	Adam Wainwright			STL	SP	33	32		3/3																												229.3	197	75	69	46	190	13	2.71	16	0	6	24	4	0	0	1.06	343.95	97.20	0.00	-69.00	189.90	-38.40	-23.10	23.76	11.73	0.00	0.00
1	8	8	25 (+17)	532.71	Stephen Strasburg			WAS	SP	26	34		2/27																												210.8	179	76	70	55	230	22	2.98	17	0	7	24	1	0	0	1.11	316.20	99.00	0.00	-69.80	230.20	-43.80	-27.30	23.86	4.35	0.00	0.00
1	9	1	1 (-8)	529.65	Mike Trout			LAA	OF	23	157		3/12	617	106	184	99	88	173	0.298	35	21	99	39	10	4	7	9	140.80	99.30	21.20	105.80	44.10	99.30	78.40	29.70	-86.55	-3.70	-3.40	4.70
1	10	9	29 (+19)	529.15	Madison Bumgarner			SF	SP	25	34		2/27																												221.0	182	79	73	57	228	21	2.95	15	0	9	24	2	0	0	1.08	331.50	91.20	0.00	-72.50	228.40	-51.60	-28.25	23.98	6.42	0.00	0.00
1	11	10	57 (+46)	520.10	Cole Hamels			PHI	SP	31	34		2/27																												231.2	207	81	75	58	219	18	2.91	14	0	10	24	3	0	0	1.15	346.80	84.00	0.00	-74.70	218.70	-58.80	-29.15	24.22	9.03	0.00	0.00
1	12	11	45 (+33)	518.45	Jordan Zimmermann			WAS	SP	28	34		2/27																												221.0	200	77	70	38	187	17	2.87	17	0	7	24	2	0	0	1.08	331.50	100.80	0.00	-70.40	186.90	-42.00	-19.10	24.33	6.42	0.00	0.00
Round	Rank	TRank	CBSADP	Value	Name	Inj	Status	Team	Pos	Age	g	News	Date	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	1B	2B	3B	CS	GDP	HBP	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BBV	1BV	2BV	3BV	KV	CSV	GDPV	HBPV	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	L	QS	CG	HBP	BS	WHIP	IPV	WV	SVV	ERV	SOV	LV	BBV	QSV	CGV	HBPV	BSV
2	13	2	13 (0)	513.90	Jose Bautista			TOR	OF	34	154		3/12	591	106	158	115	98	107	0.267	38	5	91	29	0	2	18	6	152.00	115.30	4.50	105.90	49.20	90.60	58.20	0.00	-53.40	-2.40	-9.15	3.15
2	14	12	44 (+30)	509.94	Jon Lester			CHC	SP	31	34		2/27																												227.8	211	86	79	59	211	21	3.11	15	0	9	23	3	0	0	1.18	341.70	88.20	0.00	-78.80	211.40	-54.60	-29.45	23.39	8.10	0.00	0.00
2	15	3	4 (-11)	505.20	Andrew McCutchen			PIT	OF	28	154		3/7	578	95	182	104	93	115	0.315	24	17	114	38	6	4	12	10	97.20	104.40	17.10	94.80	46.70	114.10	75.80	17.40	-57.50	-3.80	-5.80	4.80
2	16	4	5 (-11)	494.05	Miguel Cabrera			DET	1B	31	146		3/12	568	92	180	109	66	101	0.316	34	1	109	36	1	1	20	3	135.60	108.60	0.80	91.80	33.05	109.10	71.80	2.70	-50.25	-0.80	-9.95	1.60
2	17	5	18 (+1)	493.65	Edwin Encarnacion			TOR	1B	32	146		3/12	561	94	153	108	78	92	0.272	40	2	82	29	1	1	17	5	159.60	108.20	1.80	93.60	39.00	82.10	58.20	3.90	-46.05	-0.60	-8.70	2.60
2	18	6	32 (+14)	492.95	Michael Brantley			CLE	OF	27	154		3/12	626	88	197	104	52	59	0.314	17	21	139	38	2	2	14	6	66.80	104.20	20.70	87.80	26.05	139.30	76.60	7.20	-29.25	-2.30	-6.90	2.75
2	19	7	4 (-15)	487.50	Giancarlo Stanton			MIA	OF	25	154		2/4	563	105	154	108	104	186	0.273	40	12	79	34	1	1	13	5	159.20	107.50	11.70	105.00	51.75	78.80	68.60	2.40	-92.75	-0.90	-6.50	2.70
2	20	13	60 (+40)	487.00	Zack Greinke			LAD	SP	31	32		2/27																												206.7	184	73	67	48	196	18	2.92	15	0	8	23	2	0	0	1.12	310.05	89.40	0.00	-67.00	196.30	-46.20	-23.75	22.89	5.31	0.00	0.00
2	21	14	34 (+13)	483.33	Johnny Cueto			CIN	SP	29	33		2/27																												221.0	169	86	79	59	206	22	3.23	14	0	10	22	3	0	0	1.03	331.50	81.60	0.00	-79.30	206.10	-57.00	-29.65	22.22	7.86	0.00	0.00
2	22	8	21 (-1)	482.20	Robinson Cano			SEA	2B	32	154		3/13	615	87	193	103	60	72	0.314	21	9	130	42	1	3	20	6	82.00	102.90	8.80	86.50	30.10	129.80	84.20	3.00	-35.75	-2.60	-9.85	3.10
2	23	9	9 (-14)	474.95	Jose Abreu			CHW	1B	28	146		2/9	579	91	175	108	54	142	0.303	36	3	103	34	2	1	15	12	144.00	107.80	2.50	90.50	26.95	103.20	68.20	5.70	-71.20	-1.30	-7.25	5.85
2	24	15	103 (+79)	473.83	James Shields			SD	SP	33	34		2/27																												227.8	209	94	87	57	194	24	3.42	14	0	10	22	3	0	0	1.17	341.70	82.80	0.00	-86.50	194.20	-60.00	-28.50	22.03	8.10	0.00	0.00

Guy picking first already assured me he's taking Trout.  I was thinking of going Kershaw and then loading up on bats after.  Seems to work well having 2-3 aces and streaming 2-3 two start pitchers each week.  Biggest problem is that adds/drops are $1 each, so I'd rather not be making a bunch of moves every single week.  Any thoughts?  Thanks guys!

ken_admin  3/25/2015 11:01 AM

If I remember from last season, we assumed each SP would get 1.2 starts per week, and each hitter 6 games.  If so, Kershaw would produce 23.15 pts/week and McCutchen 19.7.  Kershaw looks more valuable here so the only remaining question is what value would a waiver wire SP produce compared to a waiver wire hitter.  I imagine it'll be easier to find SP value on waivers (for $1 as you mention).  Are your waivers for hitters typically bare?

tomm0  3/25/2015 11:25 AM

There always seems to be both hitters and pitchers on the wire to be honest.  I really think it's between Kershaw or Miggy for me.  Miggy was still top 5 last year despite playing hurt most of the season.  He'll be in the lineup again today and starting at 1B.  Typically 6-7 pitchers go in the first two rounds which means I could still potentially get Sale (possible injury discount), Strasburg, or Bumgarner in the 2nd.  Waino and Hamels kind of scare me, but they're up there in the projections as well.

So Miggy - 3.40 * 6 = 20.4
Sale/Stras/Bum - 16.2 (avg) * 1.2 = 19.44
= 39.84

vs

Kershaw - 19.11 * 1.2 = 22.93
Puig (just looking at ADP) - 2.88 * 6 = 17.28
= 40.21

ken_admin  3/26/2015 8:26 AM

Cabrera would work since there is upside if he can stay healthy all season. He likely was the top hitter with your settings before last season.