Pick up G. Springer?

unbigote  8/27/2013 4:17 PM

He is sitting on my wire and would count as a 23rd round pick next season. I realize he likely will not help me this year, and I'm in the thick of it in a H2H keeper league (duking it out for first place with two weeks left). I'm not sure who I should drop if I pick him up (probably LaRoche). Thoughts?

Can keep 6, but only one player in the first round next year, next year's round value is in parenthesis.

Catcher: Castro (23)
First Base: Votto (1)
Second Base: Kipnis (2)
Shortstop: Segura (23)
Third Base: Beltre (1)
Infield: A. Gon (1)
Outfield: Harper (16)
Outfield: Werth (12)
Outfield: McCutchen (1)
Outfield: Yelich (23)
Utility: M. Carpenter (23)
Utility: Kipnis (2)
Bench: LaRoche (9)
DL: Mauer (2)
DL: Kemp (1)

Starting Pitcher: Kershaw (1)
Starting Pitcher: Scherzer (2)
Relief Pitcher: K. Jansen (11)
Relief Pitcher: Rivera (5)
Pitcher: Kimbrell (7)
Pitcher: Zeigler (23)
Pitcher: Fister (8)
Bench: Weaver (1)
Bench: D. Price (1)
Bench: T. Walker (23)
Bench: M. Perez (23)

Right now I'm leaning towards McCutchen, Harper, Segura, Carpenter with the last two spots still to be decided.

12 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [5 Active = HR RBI SB R BA] | 7 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
1	5	1.01	McCutchen, Andrew		PIT	OF	33		123	19	37	18	14	23	0.303	4	6	0.22	1.03	1.26	1.12	1.43
1	7	0.99	Harper, Bryce		WAS	OF	32		120	22	33	18	18	27	0.275	7	3	1.89	0.92	0.31	2.20	-0.37
1	8	0.97	Kipnis, Jason		CLE	2B	32		119	18	35	20	15	27	0.294	4	6	0.27	1.48	1.36	0.94	0.82
1	10	0.77	Beltre, Adrian		TEX	3B	29		109	16	33	21	6	13	0.306	6	0	1.46	1.87	-1.01	0.10	1.45
2	14	0.69	Werth, Jayson		WAS	OF	32		116	17	34	19	14	25	0.295	5	2	0.82	1.30	-0.26	0.73	0.86
2	19	0.58	Votto, Joey		CIN	1B	29		101	18	32	16	21	23	0.316	4	1	0.05	0.48	-0.60	1.10	1.86
2	24	0.47	Carpenter, Matt		STL	1B/2B/3B/OF	31		131	22	40	14	14	19	0.305	3	1	-0.50	-0.22	-0.82	2.25	1.67
3	28	0.42	Gonzalez, Adrian		LAD	1B/OF	31		123	17	37	18	10	18	0.299	4	0	0.45	0.89	-0.98	0.55	1.18
3	32	0.39	Segura, Jean		MIL	SS	31		129	17	37	14	7	16	0.287	3	7	-0.67	-0.27	1.94	0.51	0.42
5	51	0.15	Pedroia, Dustin		BOS	2B	28		108	16	32	15	12	13	0.295	2	4	-0.89	0.15	0.44	0.24	0.80
6	62	0.04	Mauer, Joe		MIN	C	28		109	17	34	13	16	19	0.315	2	0	-0.99	-0.38	-0.85	0.49	1.95
8	87	-0.25	Kemp, Matt		LAD	OF	24		90	11	26	14	8	25	0.284	4	3	-0.01	-0.14	0.22	-1.45	0.15
10	112	-0.45	LaRoche, Adam		WAS	1B	25		86	13	23	14	11	22	0.265	5	1	0.46	-0.25	-0.82	-0.93	-0.72
11	128	-0.54	Castro, Jason		HOU	C	28		101	13	27	14	10	25	0.272	3	0	-0.26	-0.23	-0.90	-0.83	-0.47
12	140	-0.62	Yelich, Christian		MIA	OF	30		122	16	31	9	11	36	0.252	3	4	-0.57	-1.52	0.60	0.25	-1.85
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
		4.63	Avg Stats/Total Values				442		1,688	251	491	239	187	331	0.291	59	38	1.75	5.11	-0.12	7.25	9.18
		5.46	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				360		1,367	207	401	202	152	251	0.293	50	30	3.32	7.15	-0.09	7.96	8.93

mbuser   8/27/2013 6:51 PM

I see little downside in adding Springer. It would be madness if he didn't play every day for HOU next season, and he's got clear power, speed, and plate discipline. I'd be comfortable dropping Taijuan Walker for him.

Also, I'm a PIT fan but would keep Kerhsaw over McCutchen among the Rd1 options. Jansen (11) is very good, too. It's pretty safe to assume he'll be the best RP in fantasy baseball next season.

unbigote  8/27/2013 11:57 PM

I've been mulling the Kershaw versus McCutchen choice for a while now. I suppose in all times previous, I've subscribed to the line of thinking that, in a 5x5 category system, a hitter playing every day is more valuable than a starter, especially if said hitter contributes in all five stat categories. Even so, its a difficult choice to make, and you've complicated it a bit. Would you mind expanding upon why you'd chose Kershaw over McCutchen? Also, you think its worth keeping a closer in any situation, given the volatility of the position in general, and a limited number of keeper slots (obviously you do, I'm curious as to why though)?

I was hoping--though it might be delusion--that since the draft is a snake system, I may be able to snag Kershaw at the beginning of the second round. Still a long ways away from decision time, and a lot of things may factor in. Thanks for the early advice.

mbuser   8/28/2013 1:03 AM

Yeah, everyone values hitting above pitching when it's even remotely close. It's close enough that I won't try to sway you. As for Jansen, he is not volatile, he's lights out.

unbigote  8/30/2013 1:18 PM

You being the expert,I am curious as to your reasoning, and generally consider your advice a bit above the "everyone" you mention. Though be forewarned, I might seek out a second opinion from you once next season draws near.

I did add Springer and ended up dropping LaRoche instead of Walker--news broke of Walker's call up before I made the move. Also, LaRoche's numbers seem to be fairly easy to replace on my waiver wire at the moment, unless he goes on a ridiculous hot streak.

mbuser   8/30/2013 5:57 PM

To be honest, I've heard so much "don't pay for elite SP" that part of it is knee-jerk contrarian reaction. I draft early SP all the time and have plenty of success doing so. Obviously Kershaw and Cutch are not far apart, but Kershaw is almost guaranteed to lead the league in ERA, WHIP, and K in ~230 IP. You can't get what he'll give you anywhere else - he's currently working on three-year averages of 2.19 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 9.1 K/9. I'm not going to fault your for keeping Cutch, though, he's a monster too.