Help analyzing my trade ideas

unbigote  6/29/2014 10:33 AM

I have no idea if the other teams will have any interest, but I'm looking to improve my roster.

12 Team h2h; 5x5 scoring; 6 keepers (each player moves up 2 rounds/year)

Trade 1a: McCutchen (1) + Harper (15) + Molina (6) for Trout (16) + Posey (2) -- I could offer Springer (24) in place of McCutchen

Trade 2: Segura (22) + Heyward (4) for Altuve (5) -- note, this team is in second to last place, so my thinking is they might want to cash in on Altuve for a keeper. As good as he has been, I don't think he is worth keeping in round 3 next year. I could substitute J.D. Martinez (24) for Heyward.

Trade 3: Heyward (4) for Martin (10) -- I need the SB

Current team w/ round value in parenthesis

C - Y. Molina (6)
1B - V. Martinez (9)
2B - Rendon (24)
SS - Segura (22)
3B - Encarnacion (10)
IF - Freeman (15)
OF - Brantley (14)
OF - Springer (24)
OF - Heyward (4)
OF - McCutchen (1)
UT - J.D. Martinez (24)
UT - M. Betts (24)

BN - Baez (23)
BN - Tavares (22)

DL - Harper (15)

SP - Hernandez (1), Grienke (3), Minor (5), Kluber (15), Smyly (19) Keuchel (24)
RP - Robertson (6), Allen (24), Doolittle (24), Melancon (24)

I'm honestly not sure who I'd be keeping at the moment. I've had Baez on my bench all season, so I'm reluctant to drop him, but I might have to given his struggles in AAA and the impending return of Harper.

12 Teams | 12 Hitters Per Team [5 Active = HR RBI SB R BA] | 7 Pitchers Per Team [5 Active = W SV ERA WHIP SO]

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
1	5	1.30	McCutchen, Andrew		PIT	OF	79		290	44	92	49	43	54	0.318	12	12	0.73	1.65	0.76	1.11	2.24
2	13	0.89	Brantley, Michael		CLE	OF	78		304	41	94	45	25	32	0.309	8	13	-0.23	1.25	0.88	0.71	1.83
2	16	0.83	Martinez, Victor		DET	1B	73		272	38	89	53	26	22	0.328	9	1	-0.08	2.16	-0.78	0.23	2.62
2	22	0.57	Freeman, Freddie		ATL	1B	78		290	45	85	39	37	62	0.294	12	1	0.84	0.54	-0.77	1.31	0.92
2	23	0.56	Encarnacion, Edwin		TOR	1B/3B	70		245	41	67	45	36	37	0.274	15	3	1.59	1.23	-0.53	0.68	-0.18
4	41	0.23	Harper, Bryce		WAS	OF	71		244	35	68	39	31	55	0.279	12	6	0.66	0.55	0.01	-0.12	0.08
4	46	0.19	Rendon, Anthony		WAS	2B/3B	73		291	42	80	35	27	54	0.274	11	5	0.50	0.03	-0.21	0.81	-0.19
6	62	-0.04	Springer, George		HOU	OF	72		258	35	65	38	30	90	0.251	14	4	1.22	0.37	-0.40	-0.07	-1.30
7	73	-0.09	Heyward, Jason		ATL	OF	75		258	34	70	33	31	50	0.270	9	8	0.06	-0.17	0.24	-0.22	-0.39
8	95	-0.30	Molina, Yadier		STL	C	67		246	28	74	34	18	30	0.300	6	2	-0.74	-0.05	-0.65	-1.12	1.04
10	111	-0.47	Martinez, J.D.		DET	OF	64		239	26	64	36	10	63	0.267	9	2	-0.10	0.19	-0.57	-1.39	-0.50
12	134	-0.60	Segura, Jean		MIL	SS	73		303	35	76	21	13	40	0.252	5	16	-1.12	-1.67	1.39	-0.14	-1.47
16	184	-0.98	Taveras, Oscar		STL	OF	48		176	20	49	24	12	28	0.281	6	2	-0.89	-1.25	-0.66	-2.22	0.12
18	209	-1.17	Betts, Mookie		BOS	SS	41		140	18	39	18	19	16	0.275	3	9	-1.59	-2.05	0.39	-2.53	-0.06
26	311	-1.85	Baez, Javier		CHC	SS	19		69	8	17	10	3	22	0.244	4	1	-1.24	-2.98	-0.74	-3.85	-0.44
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	BA	HR	SB	HRV	RBIV	SBV	RV	BAV
		-0.93	Avg Stats/Total Values				979		3,626	489	1,029	520	361	654	0.284	135	84	-0.39	-0.19	-1.64	-6.78	4.34
		1.66	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				841		3,137	426	894	446	314	550	0.285	113	75	1.09	3.49	-0.25	-0.59	4.58

Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV
1	3	1.07	Hernandez, Felix		SEA	SP	16		113.8	100	36	33	25	117	8	2.62	8	0	1.10	1.21	-0.65	2.00	1.08	1.73
1	9	0.57	Greinke, Zack		LAD	SP	15		95.1	83	33	31	22	95	9	2.89	7	0	1.10	0.92	-0.65	0.83	0.84	0.91
2	18	0.34	Doolittle, Sean		OAK	RP	35		35.3	25	9	9	6	38	2	2.17	2	16	0.87	-1.25	1.52	1.12	1.46	-1.16
2	24	0.17	Kluber, Corey		CLE	SP	15		86.3	86	30	27	21	89	7	2.87	7	0	1.24	0.79	-0.65	0.83	-0.82	0.70
3	27	0.05	Melancon, Mark		PIT	RP	35		34.4	27	10	9	6	32	2	2.32	3	11	0.97	-1.13	0.87	0.94	0.97	-1.38
3	32	-0.01	Robertson, David		NYY	RP	33		31.1	24	10	9	10	36	3	2.73	2	17	1.07	-1.40	1.68	0.44	0.44	-1.24
4	43	-0.14	Keuchel, Dallas		HOU	SP/RP	15		105.7	103	41	38	28	88	9	3.24	6	0	1.24	0.55	-0.65	-0.26	-1.03	0.68
4	47	-0.19	Minor, Mike		ATL	SP	15		97.5	92	41	38	26	87	11	3.52	7	0	1.21	0.74	-0.65	-1.11	-0.56	0.62
7	77	-0.36	Allen, Cody		CLE	RP	35		32.9	28	12	11	13	39	3	3.06	2	10	1.24	-1.17	0.68	0.11	-0.31	-1.12
8	89	-0.46	Smyly, Drew		DET	RP	15		66.7	61	29	27	21	63	7	3.58	5	0	1.24	0.14	-0.65	-0.89	-0.65	-0.24
23	269	-0.96	Pineda, Michael		NYY	SP	5		30.2	28	14	13	11	28	4	3.91	2	0	1.27	-1.45	-0.65	-0.73	-0.43	-1.52
Round	Rank	Value	Name	Injury	Team	Pos	g	News	IP	H	RA	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	W	SV	WHIP	WV	SVV	ERAV	WHIPV	SOV
		0.08	Avg Stats/Total Values				235		728.8	657	266	245	187	713	65	3.02	52	54	1.16	-2.05	0.19	3.28	0.98	-2.01
		0.49	Avg Stats/Total Values (active)				185		419.9	368	147	136	108	415	34	2.91	29	54	1.13	-3.05	2.80	3.46	1.95	-2.71

ken_admin  6/30/2014 8:37 AM

It looks like most of your keepers will be hitters: Encarnacion, Freeman, Springer, Taveres, Harper (maybe Martinez, Renden, Brantley, Baez). For pitchers, is Keuchel the one must keep?

If you have seven you like and can do Springer/Harper/Molina for Trout/Posey, that gives you one more keeper to play with I assume.

I also assume Heyward and Martin are not keepers.

unbigote  6/30/2014 9:47 AM

Kslight,

I'm basically looking at all hitters for my keepers spots, though there are a lot of nice young arms on the wire (Stroman, Gausman, Bauer, Syndergaard). None have been worth holding permanently yet -- I dropped Gausman this week to snag Betts. I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Keuchel, but he doesn't look to be more valuable than any of the bats you mentioned.

I wouldn't mind moving Rendon into my keeper list if I can snag Trout. I'm not sure if my offer will be enough, but I think adding anything to it will result in overpaying.

Is Segura/Heyward too much or too little to offer for a rental on Altuve?  Am I better off trying a Heyward for Martin swap? Or should I try both and replace Heyward in the first deal?

If I can't package a two for one, I'll need to find someone to drop to activate Harper.

Finally, I'm definitely not keeping Heyward, I'm also pretty sure the other team wouldn't keep Martin.

ken_admin  6/30/2014 10:00 AM

I didn't mention Segura, but as a 22nd round this year, he may be appealing too. Last year, he was great, and he's only 24 so he's definitely a keeper for most teams (I assume he looked like a lock as a long-term keeper at the start of this year.) If you want to trade him, you may be able to get Altuve 1 for 1 by mentioning how good he was last season. I'd probably keep Segura myself and hope for a stronger second half  and then hopefully have space to keep him too since SS is such a prime position. What are your thoughts on him?

unbigote  6/30/2014 10:13 AM

Amazing first half of the season last year, he more or less carried my team through the all star break. His second half was less than amazing, and unfortunately, this season, he looks more like the 2013 second half Segura. Hitting in the bottom of the order has definitely hurt his fantasy value as well.

That said, his best years should be ahead of him. I'm just afraid he may be closer to guys like Andrus and Alcides, great real life players, but so-so fantasy assets. Given that there appears to be a talented crop of young shortstops not too far from the majors (Baez, Russell, Lindor, Correa, J.P. Crawford), I've started to see him as replaceable.

I've also long been coveting my neighbors Bogaerts, but have been reluctant to make a move for him because it will likely result in hurting my chances of winning the league this year.

EDIT: Do you think it is worth dropping red hot J.D. Martinez to activate Harper? With all of the talk about a change of approach, the BB%, BABIP, HR/FB% don't exactly scream sustainable breakout.

ken_admin  6/30/2014 11:12 AM

Those are good points, and if you're looking to win this season, holding Segura who's batting 8th won't help that cause. Plus, holding Baez could make Segura expendable. He should get some playing time with the Cubs this year so we'll see how he does.

For Martinez, it would be hard to drop a hitter who's been the #1 guy over the last two weeks. He's been playing over Rajai Davis with Hunter back so his job looks secure until he cools off. Does Betts have trade appeal in your league since he's likely not a keeper for you?

unbigote  6/30/2014 11:16 AM

Betts will likely have appeal in a few weeks (assuming he hits fairly well), but I'm not sure I can hock him for anything worthwhile just yet. Also, if I trade Segura he'd slot into my SS position, because for some reason Yahoo has him listed there.

ken_admin  6/30/2014 11:18 AM

My only other thought would be to drop Betts rather than a hot Martinez. Betts is batting at the bottom of the order and is competing for time. If Victorino returns in a month, his value would be minimal.